The Australia Institute Feed Items

On this episode of Dollars & Sense, Greg and Elinor discuss some of the bogus claims about productivity, why giving fossil fuel subsidies to fossil fuel companies is a bad idea, and the latest Trump tariff news.

This discussion was recorded on Thursday 12 June 2025 and things may have changed since recording.

Our independence is our strength – and only you can make that possible. By donating to the Australia Institute’s End of Financial Year appeal today, you’ll help fund the research changing Australia for the better.

Host: Greg Jericho, Chief Economist, the Australia Institute and Centre for Future Work // @grogsgamut

Host: Elinor Johnston-Leek, Senior Content Producer, the Australia Institute // @elinorjohnstonleek

Show notes:

Wealthy Australians are worried we might realise how rigged the system is in their favour by Greg Jericho, Guardian Australia (June 2025)

The US president has given the Albanese government the circuit breaker it needs to walk away from AUKUS.

Despite the frothing at the mouth in some mainstream media outlets this morning, Australians are unlikely to mourn the impending death of the deal.

Polling conducted for The Australia Institute during the election campaign found that 54% of Australians want a more independent foreign policy over a closer alliance with the United States.

An earlier poll found more Australians consider Donald Trump a greater threat to world peace than Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping.

“It’s highly likely Donald Trump will tank the whole deal,” said Emma Shortis, Director of the International & Security Affairs program at The Australia Institute.

“It was always a terrible deal for Australia anyway.

“It was conceived in secrecy and born in haste.

“Let’s face it, we were never likely to get any submarines – certainly not within a remotely workable timeframe.

“All AUKUS did was tie us ever closer to an increasingly volatile and aggressive America.

“Scott Morrison gave Anthony Albanese little time or choice but to support AUKUS. Now, Donald Trump has given him a golden opportunity to get out.

Australians pick up the tab for billions of litres of diesel used by mining companies each year, under the fuel tax credits scheme.

It costs taxpayers more than $10 billion a year and is predicted to grow to more than $13 billion by 2028/29.

Not only is this subsidy a drag on the economy, it serves as a disincentive for fossil fuel companies to transition to renewable energy.

Fortescue Metals Chief Executive Dino Otranto is today calling for a $50 million cap on the amount companies can claim for the diesel they use.

“That would be a good start,” said Greg Jericho, Chief Economist at The Australia Institute.

“This scheme is nothing more than a fossil fuel subsidy – and the Australian government promised to scrap fossil fuel subsidies way back in 2009.

“The theory behind the scheme is that money raised by fuel excise goes to maintaining public roads, and mining companies operate largely on private roads.

“But if this is all about user pays, then how about we have a user pays scheme for the damage fossil fuel companies unleash in emissions, which make natural disasters more frequent and severe?

“How about they pay fair royalties or petroleum resource rent tax for Australia’s resources which they extract and sell at huge profit?

“This scheme costs Australia more than it spends on the Air Force and more than twice what it spends on foreign aid.

The government is confronting major challenges in its second term. But despite what we’re often told, there is no shortage of solutions – governments just need the courage to implement them. On this episode of Follow the Money, we hear from four leading policy thinkers – Richard Denniss, Maiy Azize, Polly Hemming and Thomas Mayo – about making big, bold ideas a reality.

Find the What’s the Big Idea? series via our website or wherever you get your podcasts.

Our independence is our strength – and only you can make that possible. By donating to the Australia Institute’s End of Financial Year appeal today, you’ll help fund the research changing Australia for the better.

Guest: Richard Denniss, Executive Director, the Australia Institute // @richarddenniss

Guest: Maiy Azize, National Spokesperson for Everybody’s Home and Deputy Director of Anglicare Australia // @MaiyAzize

Guest: Polly Hemming, Director of Climate & Energy Program, the Australia Institute // @pollyjhemming

The best way to help the Tomago smelter, and every other electricity consumer in Australia, is to restrict gas exports.

Australia faces three options:

• One, leave the fate of the smelter and other heavy industry in the hands of the electricity market, risking its loss.
• Two, pay subsidies to Rio Tinto that have been estimated into the billions, increasing taxes or cutting services for other Australians.
• Three, make the multinational gas exporters supply gas at reasonable prices.

“The reason the fate of the smelter and gas exports are linked is because gas-fired electricity generators tend to set the price in Australia’s electricity market,”  said Rod Campbell, Research Director at The Australia Institute.

“As pointed out by Peter Dutton and Chris Bowen during the election campaign, Australia exports a lot of gas. If gas exports are limited, Australia’s wholesale gas price will come down and electricity prices will come down too.

“Aluminium businesses live or die based on electricity costs. So it looks like the Australian Government needs to choose between the interests of the gas exporters and aluminium manufacturers.”

The post Limit gas exports to save smelter appeared first on The Australia Institute.

It was in the rural Victorian seat of Indi, encompassing Wodonga and Wangaratta, that independent Cathy McGowan was drafted by community group Voices of Indi.

In 2013, McGowan delivered the Liberal Party its only loss when she won the formerly safe seat from Sophie Mirabella.

The subsequent success of inner city “teals” – community independents like Zali Steggall, Monique Ryan and Kate Chaney – is evidence that Liberal neglect of classical-liberal and metropolitan voters has come back to haunt them.

But soul searching is due in the bush as well, particularly among Nationals. So far, they have been criticised for unforced errors (like quitting the Liberal-National Coalition only to rejoin it days later) rather than structural weaknesses, like their preference of mining interests over agricultural ones and their inability to win back seats lost since the 1990s.

Conditions are ripe for the Nationals to face challenges from independents on the same scale as those already faced by the Liberals.

And while Indi’s “Voices of” model of community organising and drafting candidates was an innovation, the country has long been friendly to independents.

On this episode, Paul Barclay is joined by former senator Christine Milne who brings her expertise and insights on how proportional representation and minority governments can be much more democratic, diverse, and help reduce corporate lobbying power.

This discussion was recorded on Monday 27 January 2025, and things may have changed since the recording.

Order What’s the Big Idea? 32 Big Ideas for a Better Australia now, via the Australia Institute website.

Guest: Christine Milne AO, Former Leader of the Australian Greens // @ChristineMilne

Host: Paul Barclay, Walkley Award winning journalist and broadcaster // @PaulBarclay

Show notes:

Power sharing in Australian parliament by Bill Browne and Richard Denniss, the Australia Institute (July 2024)

Representative, Still: The role of the Senate in our Democracy by Bill Browne and Ben Oquist, the Australia Institute (March 2021)

On this episode of After America, Dr Emma Shortis and Angus Blackman discuss Trump’s dystopian presidency, the administration’s renewed pressure on the Australian government to increase defence spending, and the end of the Trump-Musk bromance.

This discussion was recorded on Friday 6 June 2025 and things may have changed since recording.

Our independence is our strength – and only you can make that possible. By donating to the Australia Institute’s End of Financial Year appeal today, you’ll help fund the research changing Australia for the better.

Host: Emma Shortis, Director, International & Security Affairs, the Australia Institute // @emmashortis

Host: Angus Blackman, Producer, the Australia Institute // @AngusRB

Show notes:

‘Australia must resist US bullying to increase its military spending’ by Allan Behm, Guardian Australia (June 2025)

On this episode of Dollars & Sense, Greg and Elinor discuss the latest quarterly GDP figures, why the above-inflation increase to minimum and award wages is a good thing, and the latest from Tariffland.

This discussion was recorded on Thursday 5 June 2025 and things may have changed since recording.

Our independence is our strength – and only you can make that possible. By donating to the Australia Institute’s End of Financial Year appeal today, you’ll help fund the research changing Australia for the better.

Host: Greg Jericho, Chief Economist, the Australia Institute and Centre for Future Work // @grogsgamut

Host: Elinor Johnston-Leek, Senior Content Producer, the Australia Institute // @elinorjohnstonleek

Show notes:

The good news? Household living standards are on the rise. The bad news? Just about everything else by Greg Jericho, Guardian Australia (June 2025)

Free-to-air TV shows more than a million gambling ads a year – and this is not to mention the online torrent.

If 85 per cent of 12-17 year olds have seen a gambling ad on TV in the past month, is it any wonder that young people talk about betting odds like they once did player stats?

The $244.3 billion in bets made by Australians in in 2022-23 makes us the world’s biggest gamblers, and the saturation level of advertising is probably one reason that since 2019, average gambling losses have increased to almost $2500 a year – that’s more than the average home pays for a year’s worth of electricity.

As a nation we lost a collective $31.5 billion, which is comparable to the size of the entire Northern Territory economy ($33.1 billion), and greater than the $21 billion lost to gambling in all of Las Vegas.

As if the harm gambling causes to adults isn’t bad enough, analysis by the Australia Institute shows that large numbers of Australians start gambling well before they reach the legal minimum age of 18.

Almost one in three (30 per cent) 12-17-year-olds gamble, and this increases to almost half (46 per cent) when young people turn 18. More than 900,000 teenagers (aged 12-19) gambled in the past year.

On this episode of Follow the Money, Walkley Award-winning journalist Stephen Long and Elinor Johnston-Leek discuss the Federal Government’s decision to sign a provisional extension to Woodside’s North West Shelf gas project and the impact that will have on the irreplaceable Murujuga rock art.

Our independence is our strength – and only you can make that possible. By donating to the Australia Institute’s End of Financial Year appeal today, you’ll help fund the research changing Australia for the better.

Host: Stephen Long, Stephen Long, Senior Fellow and Contributing Editor, the Australia Institute // @StephenLongAus

Host: Elinor Johnston-Leek, Senior Content Producer, the Australia Institute // @elinorjohnstonleek

Show notes:

The fight to save Murujuga, the Australia Institute (May 2025)

Gas export approval puts gas corporations before Australians, the Australia Institute (May 2025)

Theme music: Blue Dot Sessions

He told regional leaders that they bludged off America’s generosity, getting security on the cheap and leaving it to America to do the heavy lifting of containing China by maintaining the strategic balance – whatever that might be. All they needed to do was invest much more in defence to help the US maintain its primacy. And behind his shrill calls for more money on bombs and their delivery systems was a growing US alarmism directed at China.

Hegseth spoke about the imminence of the China threat. America may well need an enemy to define its ambition and to sustain its sense of insecurity. But the question is: do we? The countries of south-east Asia have made their position pretty clear: they just do not believe it. Nor do they want to get sucked into a contest between titans. As the proverb has it, “when elephants are dancing, grasshoppers get out of the way”.

Hustlers evidently do not appreciate irony. Notwithstanding the claims of massive increases in China’s defence spending, it runs a defence budget that hovers around 1.7% of GDP, compared with America’s 3.4%. In dollar terms, China spends around USD 300bn per annum. America spends around USD 900bn, accounting for about 40% of global arms spending.

These expenditures dwarf everyone else’s. In the US case, they contribute to a deficit overhang bigger than its GDP. For our part, without any additional defence spending, we are already the 12th largest contributor to the global industrial-military complex.

This will ensure that the real wages of workers on award wages will rise at a time when the overall real wages of all Australian workers are also recovering.

The cost-of-living increases of the past three years have been most acutely felt by those on low incomes – especially due to sharp increases in rents and mortgages.

This will provide some much-needed relief.

Australia Institute research shows the real value of award wages has fallen nearly 4% below September 2020 levels. This increase will still see award wages 1% lower than they were five years ago.

“Our research has shown that over the past 30 years, there has been no connection between increases in award wages and inflation,” said Greg Jericho, Chief Economist at The Australia Institute.

“As a result, any claims from business groups that this will drive inflation are without foundation.”

They exceed those voting for the Liberal and National Coalition – which is, at least theoretically, the “alternative government”.

At 33.6 per cent of the vote, independent and minor party voters are almost as numerous as the 34.6 per cent who cast their first preference for the Labor government.

Of course, independent and minor party candidates represent a variety of ideologies, approaches and personalities – although, as the last fortnight has demonstrated, the same is true for major party candidates.

The Australian electoral system allows every voter to express their preferences, without reducing the effectiveness of their vote.

Some Greens voters prefer an independent to the Labor candidate; others prefer Labor. Some Liberal voters would settle for a non-Labor candidate such as a Green or independent; others will plump for Labor if the Liberal doesn’t make it to the final two.

This system, called full preferential voting, is why you must number every box on your ballot paper. You must express a preference between every candidate running to be your local member.

It means that in most cases you do not need to worry about voting “tactically” – your vote will still help decide between the final two candidates.

The trade-off is that counting votes takes a bit longer than it does in the US or Britain, where they use “first past the post” voting.

The Murujuga Rock Art is a unique 40,000-year-old collection of rock engravings on the Dampier Archipelago in the Pilbara region of Western Australia.

These irreplaceable petroglyphs are twice as old as France’s Lascaux cave paintings and eight times older than the pyramids.

Murujuga is nationally heritage-listed and could soon be recognised by UNESCO for its world heritage value.

But it is facing destruction from acid rain caused by nearby gas processing. Gas processing that does not need to happen at Murujuga.

The new Australian Environment Minister Murray Watt, however, decided to approve a 50-year extension to Woodside’s North West Shelf gas project. This could have devastating consequences for the rock art.

A video report presented by Stephen Long, Senior Fellow, and Contributing Editor at the Australia Institute on Ngarluma land.

Cinematography and Editing by Elinor Johnston-Leek, Senior Content Producer at the Australia Institute

Featuring:

There seems to be an endless supply of news articles on this topic, ranging from concerned tutting to full-blown doomsaying and accusations of class war. Almost all this coverage misses the mark; these changes, while modest, are an important first step in reforming Australia’s broken and unequal superannuation system.

So, what’s changing?

Currently, most people get a tax concession on their superannuation earnings (the money made by your super investments). Rather than being taxed at your marginal tax rate, the money made from your super investments is only taxed at 15 per cent. That is a lot less than the top income tax rate of 45 per cent (plus the Medicare levy).

But the government is proposing to raise the tax on superannuation balances of over $3 million. These people will pay an additional 15 per cent on earnings.

Importantly though, it is only on the amount above $3 million. For instance, if you have $4 million in super, you will only pay additional tax on a quarter of your earnings.

The tax is projected to raise $2.3 billion in its first full year, and $40 billion over a decade.

If $3 million in super sounds like a lot of money; that’s because it is. Very few of us have anywhere near that amount of super. According to Treasury, the tax will initially affect 80,000 people or one in 200 (0.5 per cent) super account holders. For comparison, according to the most recent Tax Office data, less than half of people in their 60s have more than $250,000 in super.

Because, after blowing up the show on Tuesday with his own Groucho Marx “principles” (“those are my principles, and if you don’t like them, well, I have others”), David Littleproud has announced that the Coalition’s divorce is on hold.

In modern parlance, the Coalition has been reduced to a situationship.

Liberal leader Sussan Ley had been due to announce her shadow ministry on Thursday, while Littleproud was to announce the spokespeople for his little party. Both put their announcements on hold after deciding to re-enter negotiations for the new Coalition agreement.

Ask anyone inside the Nationals what happened and you’ll get different versions. They all agree that there was a meeting to decide portfolio spokespeople. That suddenly the spokespeople were told to hold their fire. That party heavyweights, current and former, had spent 48 hours pressing for calmer heads to prevail. That doubts began to creep in immediately when it became clear the response to the party room decision was not one of back, but forehead, slapping.

Party elders immediately began urging Littleproud and those pushing the split, including Victorian senator Bridget McKenzie, to reconsider. The panic button was hit as it became clear the shadow ministry was about to be announced.

“The moment Sussan announced her cabinet, it would be over for us,” one Nationals MP said.

On this episode of After America, Matt Duss joins Emma Shortis to sort the signal from the noise in the Trump administration’s foreign policy. They discuss Trump’s approach to the Middle East, its negotiations with Iran, and the continued influence of China hawks in his Cabinet.

This discussion was recorded on Wednesday 28 May 2025 and things may have changed since recording.

Order After America: Australia and the new world order or become a foundation subscriber to Vantage Point at australiainstitute.org.au/store.

Our independence is our strength – and only you can make that possible. By donating to the Australia Institute’s End of Financial Year appeal today, you’ll help fund the research changing Australia for the better.

Guest: Matt Duss, Executive Vice President, Center for International Policy // @mattduss

Host: Emma Shortis, Director, International & Security Affairs, the Australia Institute // @emmashortis

Photo: The White House/Flickr (U.S. Government work)

On this episode, Paul Barclay talks with Alex Sloan about the importance of independent public broadcasters, why they need to be well-funded in an increasingly privately-owned media landscape, and how they are the barometer of a strong democracy.

This discussion was recorded on Wednesday 19 March 2025, and things may have changed since the recording.

Order What’s the Big Idea? 32 Big Ideas for a Better Australia now, via the Australia Institute website.

Guest: Alex Sloan, former ABC broadcaster and award-winning journalist and interviewer

Host: Paul Barclay, Walkley Award winning journalist and broadcaster // @PaulBarclay

Show notes:

Submission: An independent ABC for a strong democracy by Benjamin Walters and Bill Browne, the Australia Institute (November 2023)

Royal Commissions and inquiries prompted by ABC journalism by Bill Browne, the Australia Institute (August 2023)

On this episode of Dollars & Sense, Matt Grudnoff joins Elinor to discuss how the Government could help first home-buyers by restricting the ability of investors to borrow, what the fuss is about ‘unrealised gains’, and why the Government’s proposed superannuation tax changes are “a good first step.”

This discussion was recorded on Thursday 29 May 2025 and things may have changed since recording.

Order After America: Australia and the new world order or become a foundation subscriber to Vantage Point at australiainstitute.org.au/store.

Our independence is our strength – and only you can make that possible. By donating to the Australia Institute’s End of Financial Year appeal today, you’ll help fund the research changing Australia for the better.

Host: Matt Grudnoff, Senior Economist, the Australia Institute // @mattgrudnoff

Host: Elinor Johnston-Leek, Senior Content Producer, the Australia Institute // @elinorjohnstonleek

Show notes:

With a huge majority and a climate-friendly Senate, this government is in an optimal position to stop the expansion of gas and coal and to plan a phase-out.

Australia Institute research shows:

• The North West Shelf project has caused WA gas and electricity prices to triple since it was granted access to domestic gas in 2020.
• The extension will see around $215 billion worth of gas given away royalty-free.
• No gas exporter has ever paid petroleum resource rent tax and most pay zero royalties.
• Gas exporters have made $100 billion in windfall profits exporting Australian gas since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

“This term of parliament will not be about politics, it will be about Labor’s priorities,” said Rod Campbell, Research Director at The Australia Institute.

“The government can use its historic majority to prioritise expanding the export gas industry, or it can take real action on climate, protect the country and its people.

On this episode of Follow the Money, Greg Jericho, Chief Economist at the Australia Institute, joins Glenn Connley to discuss the government’s modest proposal to change the superannuation tax concessions and the bizarre backlash to the policy.

This discussion was recorded on Tuesday 28 May 2025 and things may have changed.

Order After America: Australia and the new world order or become a foundation subscriber to our Vantage Point series and save 25% on the Australia Institute website.

Guest: Greg Jericho, Chief Economist, the Australia Institute // @grogsgamut

Host: Glenn Connley, Senior Media Advisor, the Australia Institute // @glennconnley

Show notes:

Don’t be fooled, only the very richest will ever have more than $3m in super by Greg Jericho, the Australia Institute (May 2025)

Updated 30/05/2025

The outer-Melbourne electorate of Calwell was named “Australia’s most unpredictable seat” by The Age after the election and was – aside from those going to a recount – the last seat to be called. The AEC labelled the counting process for the seat “likely the most complex in Australia’s history”.

The count is complicated because, while Labor led on primary votes, the Liberals, Greens, and three independents each had a significant share of the vote. The AEC had no idea which candidate would make it to the final two alongside Labor, and then if any of them could win from there. In a very rare case, the AEC had to conduct a full count of the seat to an estimate of the final result, which still hasn’t finished (though Labor now seems assured of victory).

Calwell is extra interesting, because it is diverse. It’s one of the handful of electorates in Australia where most people speak a language other than English at home, as well as having one of the largest Muslim populations. Two independents and the Greens candidate made Labor’s response to the genocide in Gaza a significant issue in their campaign.

The government’s Safeguard Mechanism is the key policy designed, apparently, to set Australia on the path to a low-emissions economy.  According to the government’s website, the mechanism “requires Australia’s highest greenhouse gas emitting facilities to reduce their emissions in line with Australia’s emission reduction targets of 43% below 2005 levels by 2030 and net zero by 2050”.

You might then be wondering how is Woodside Energy’s massive existing North West Shelf fossil gas processing facility, which is one of the biggest emitters of CO23 in Australia, is faring under this policy. Surely the Safeguard Mechanism has caused a big change in how it operates?

Alas no. The simple answer is that under the Safeguard Mechanism,the North West Shelf Facility isn’t enacting deep, structural emissions reductions. Woodside happily knows the “Safeguard” part of the Mechanism is safeguarding Woodside and other heavy emitters from having to worry about reducing emissions.

The policy isn’t imposing any material cost on the corporation or affecting the impending approval of the extension of this site for 40 years.

Using the latest data release from the Safeguard Mechanism, here’s a fun collection of facts about the North West Shelf project, and Woodside Energy:

While Australia’s electoral institutions are among the best in the world – like an independent electoral commission, Saturday voting, full preferential voting and compulsory voting – they are not perfect.

Lies in advertising and text spamming are among six key problems identified by The Australia Institute from the campaign, which suggests reforms to fix these areas of concern to safeguard Australia’s democracy.

A poll of 1500 voters was conducted by YouGov in the final week of the election campaign, asking Australians whether they’d seen misleading advertisements.

125 billion worth of liquefied natural gas (LNG) has been shipped out of Gladstone, but 9 out of 10 companies involved in Queensland gas exports have paid zero company tax in this time, according to the latest data from the Australian Taxation Office (ATO).

Despite the huge volume of gas being extracted, domestic gas prices have increased significantly, pushed up by excessive gas exports.

Key points:

• $125 billion in LNG has been sold out of Queensland over the last ten years, by companies that reported $330 billion in total Australian revenue to the ATO.
• The only company involved in Queensland LNG exports to have paid tax in the last ten years is Australia’s Origin Energy, which paid a total of $966 million, not all of which relates to LNG.
• None of the foreign-owned companies involved have paid company tax on Queensland LNG exports.

“The gas industry’s annual conference is in Brisbane this week and they will be at pains to avoid talking about tax,” said Greg Jericho, Chief Economist at The Australia Institute.

“None of the foreign-owned giant gas corporations like ConocoPhillips or Total, that export gas out of Queensland, have paid a cent in company tax.

“The burning of gas and other fossil fuels is driving disasters like the floods in NSW.

“Gas companies are cashing in while Australian communities are picking up the costs.

On this episode of After America, Dr Emma Shortis and Angus Blackman discuss Trump’s false claims about ‘white genocide’, the administration’s war on Harvard University, Kamala Harris on the Goldie, and whether Anthony Albanese’s talk about “progressive patriotism” will be backed up with real action.

This discussion was recorded on Monday 26 May 2025 and things may have changed since recording.

Order After America: Australia and the new world order or become a foundation subscriber to Vantage Point at australiainstitute.org.au/store.

Host: Emma Shortis, Director, International & Security Affairs, the Australia Institute // @emmashortis

Host: Angus Blackman, Producer, the Australia Institute // @AngusRB

Photo: GovernmentZA/Flickr (CC BY-ND 2.0)

Theme music: Blue Dot Sessions

On this episode, Adelaide Writers Week director Louise Adler joins Paul Barclay to talk about the biggest challenges facing the arts sector, including higher costs and prices, greater reliance on philanthropy and greater vulnerability to political controversies.

This discussion was recorded on Monday 3 February 2025, and things may have changed since the recording.

Order What’s the Big Idea? 32 Big Ideas for a Better Australia now, via the Australia Institute website.

Guest: Louise Adler, Director of Adelaide Writers Week // @louieadller1

Host: Paul Barclay, Walkley Award winning journalist and broadcaster // @PaulBarclay

Show notes: 

Commonwealth live music inquiry: sing along with the chorus now… by Morgan Harrington, the Australia Institute (March 2025)

The Carnival is Over: music festivals struggle as football roars by Morgan Harrington, the Australia Institute (October 2024)

The hyperbolic scare campaign against the government’s changes to the tax concessions of superannuation continues with almost little care of reality or context.

So let’s give you some.

1. Almost no one will be affected by these changes. 99.5% of Australians currently don’t have more than $3m in super
2. Using figures reported in the Australian Financial Review 97% of all people currently in the labour force will never have more than $3m in super.

So some questions:

1. Do you have more than $3m in super? No? Then nothing changes.
2. Are you ever going to have more than $3m in super? No? Then nothing will change.

At this point, you might be wondering why the big fuss? And you would be right.

To get to $3m worth of super you have to earn an extremely large amount of money your entire working life.

How much money? We’ll let’s create an 18yo  who has just left school and see how they go.

OK, you don’t have any qualifications, but lucky you, you got a job that pays the average full-time wage of $106,277. Feeling good? You should! You are now earning more than 75% of all Australians! Not bad for someone with only a Year 12 certificate!

The Australia Institute is proud to release a unique, authoritative and accurate assessment of Chinese foreign policy commentary, a first for Australia.

Postdoctoral Fellow at The Australia Institute, Dr. Fangcheng (Frank) Yuan, has combined his extraordinary research and language skills to deliver his paper, Chinese Foreign Policy Brief.

Dr Yuan has drawn on publications, interviews, statements and other sources reflecting the foreign policy views of Chinese officials and state-affiliated analysts, covering four themes:

• The exchange of trade restrictions between China and the US
• Taiwan’s reunification with China and other countries’ stance on the matter, including China’s misrepresentation of Australia’s position
• Tensions between the US and its European allies
• The Russia-Ukraine War

“China’s messaging, aimed at international and domestic audiences alike, has become increasingly colourful and self-referential, suggesting a sense of confidence matching the content of Beijing’s messages,” said Dr Frank Yuan, Postdoctoral Fellow at The Australia Institute.

“Beijing has treated the trade war as a malicious attack on China’s right to development by the US.

“While Beijing clearly disagrees with the sanctions on Russia, it is not shy to signal its discomfort with Russia’s use of force, even if it sympathises with Moscow’s security concerns.”

But in the case of Climate Active, it’s the government itself running the scheme — and promoting it.

While claiming to crack down on greenwashing, the Australian government has been quietly enabling it for years.

I previously worked on the Climate Active program and understand the intent behind it.

But intent is no substitute for integrity.

And the scheme’s reliance on carbon offsets — combined with limited transparency, no assessment of real-world emissions trajectories, and endorsement of claims that may be impossible to prove — has turned it into a high-risk proposition.

Climate Active is not just misleading — it’s dangerous. It exposes businesses to legal risk, investors to financial risk, and consumers to outright deception. And now, with Energy Australia taken to court over its long-standing “carbon neutral” claims, the consequences are finally surfacing.

Here’s how the scheme works. Climate Active certifies organisations and products as “carbon neutral” if they offset their emissions using carbon credits — even if those emissions are increasing.

The offsets themselves are often of questionable quality and permanence. But once the box is ticked, the government puts its name behind the claim.

If you rocked up to cast your ballot on polling day a few weeks ago, you may have noticed it was a bit quieter than it used to be. More and more Australians are forgoing their democracy sausage – and more importantly – voting before the final days of the election campaign. In fact, only 45% of Australians voted on election day, a record low that could be hampering Australians’ collective democracy.

Despite the shortest pre-poll period in living memory, with booths opening only 11 days out from the election (over a week later than in 2019), Australians set pre-poll records several times during the campaign.

Figure 1: Pre-poll votes in the days before Federal elections 

(Source: AEC)

On this episode of Dollars & Sense, Greg explains why Australia has won the fight against inflation, complains about the RBA a bit, and appraises latest gender pay gap data. Plus: air horns!

This discussion was recorded on Thursday 22 May 2025 and things may have changed since recording.

Order After America: Australia and the new world order or become a foundation subscriber to Vantage Point at australiainstitute.org.au/store.

Host: Greg Jericho, Chief Economist, the Australia Institute and Centre for Future Work // @grogsgamut

Host: Elinor Johnston-Leek, Senior Content Producer, the Australia Institute // @elinorjohnstonleek

Show notes:

‘You would think after nearly three years of being wrong, the RBA might start to question its economics. But no’ by Greg Jericho, Guardian Australia (May 202 5)

This week, the National Party announced they were leaving the Coalition to sit on the crossbench, which would make the Liberal Party the sole Opposition in the Australian Parliament. (Though talk of reuniting has already begun).

If the Nationals do see through their departure from the Opposition, there will be about as many MPs sitting on the crossbenches as there are in Opposition: perhaps 27 or 28 Nationals, Greens, independents and minor party MPs, and about the same number of Liberal MPs. This far exceeds what was previously described as the “record crossbench” of 16 elected in 2022 – and is the largest crossbench since the Coalition was formed in 1923.

But as the Australia Institute wrote during the election campaign, Australia did not federate in 1945. Large crossbenches were commonplace after Federation in 1901, sometimes exceeding not just the Opposition in size but the Government as well.

Is it a safe and secure place for people to live? Or is it a place to make a small minority of people rich?

The answer is important because the housing market over the last two decades has shown that it can’t be both.

Since the turn of the century, investors have flooded into the market, pushing up house prices, outbidding first home buyers, and making housing less affordable.

With the Reserve Bank now cutting official interest rates, house prices are going to grow even faster, and these rising house prices are going to attract even more investors.

After an election where the issue of housing affordability was hotly debated, first home buyers struggling to break into the market are likely to watch as rapidly rising prices leave them further behind.

The major party’s policies on housing affordability fell into two categories.

The first are those that increase supply, which in the long run will make housing more affordable.

The second are those that gave some financial advantage to a particular group of home buyers, most often first-home buyers, that would increase demand, push up prices, and ultimately make housing less affordable.

Overall, the major party’s offerings on housing are best described as a dumpster fire of dumb stuff.

What neither side offered were policies that deal with the underlying cause of unaffordable housing, the explosion in investor demand for housing.

Since election day, conservative media have decided to begin a scare campaign around the government’s proposed changes to the tax concessions on superannuation. Currently, the earnings in superannuation funds are taxed at just 15%. This is a significant tax concession for most people and a very large one for the richest in Australia, who would be paying a 45% rate if super was taxed like income.

This means that the richest in Australia are getting a 30% tax break on their super, so it is little wonder that many of them are using super not to save for their retirement, but to avoid paying tax.

Superannuation tax breaks are being abused

The entire reason for the superannuation tax concessions is to encourage people to save for their retirement so they will not need to go on the age pension. This, in theory, reduces the burden on the government.

But the problem is that when you offer the richest people in Australia a 30% tax break, they will take advantage of it. The richest 10% – most of whom would never be eligible for the age pension receive $22bn in tax breaks by having money in super rather than having it taxed like income.

On this episode of Follow the Money, the Australia Institute’s Joshua Black and Jack Thrower join Glenn Connley to discuss the enormous cost of going to university, the absurdity of university vice-chancellors being paid more than the Treasurer, and why the practice of using international students as a political football must end.

This discussion was recorded on Tuesday 20 May 2025 and things may have changed.

Order After America: Australia and the new world order or become a foundation subscriber to our Vantage Point series and save 25% on the Australia Institute website.

Guest: Joshua Black, Postdoctoral Fellow, the Australia Institute // @joshuablackjb

Guest: Jack Thrower, Senior Economist, the Australia Institute // ‪@jack-thrower

Host: Glenn Connley, Senior Media Advisor, the Australia Institute // @glennconnley

Show notes:

And it doesn’t involve changes to capital gains tax or negative gearing, which would be more effective but, strangely, the government won’t touch.

It’s a lever which the government has pulled before – and it worked.

The government could direct the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) to force lenders to limit the number of loans they offer to investors.

In 2014, with investors flooding the property market and prices out of control, APRA introduced a 10% limit on the increase in the number of investment loans which banks could offer. Then, in 2017, it put a 30% limit on the number of interest-only loans which could be offered.

By limiting the number of investment loans, a natural consequence was that interest rates for investors went up. Interest rates for owner-occupiers stayed the same.

For the first time since investors sent property prices soaring in the early 2000s, the market was tipped in favour of owner-occupiers over investors.

Borrowers have endured two full years of pain, as rates shot up quickly but started coming down slowly.

People are still hurting, and there’s no need to keep inflicting unnecessary additional pain.

“The Australia Institute welcomes the news that the RBA has finally acted by reducing the cash rate by 25 basis points,” said Greg Jericho, Chief Economist at The Australia Institute.

“This cut goes some small way to redressing the failure to cut rates at its April meeting.

“Households have been smashed by the rate rises which began in May 2022. Almost half of the increase in cost-of-living pressure on employee households is attributable to interest rate rises.

“The pain of these rate rises continues. In the first three months of this year, spending on retail was flat as households continued to cut back on spending to pay mortgage bills.

“The Reserve Bank should not end here. Over the past year, unemployment has remained at around 4.1%, and yet in that time, inflation has fallen from 3.8% to 2.4%, and private-sector wage growth has fallen from 4.1% to 3.3%.

“There is no wage price spiral. There is no need for unemployment to rise. The Reserve Bank should focus on achieving full employment.”

The post Australians still hurting. RBA should keep cutting.  appeared first on The Australia Institute.

Energy Australia has admitted that its Go Neutral scheme, which falsely told customers they could offset their gas and electricity usage, did nothing to stop climate change.

This is a landmark moment in the fight against greenwashing by companies pumping millions of tonnes of emissions into the atmosphere.

Energy Australia owns and operates some of the highest polluting industrial sites in Australia.

Now it admits that carbon offsets cannot undo the damage it causes by burning vast volumes of fossil fuels.

The admission only came after the Parents for Climate group took Energy Australia to the Federal Court over its Go Neutral claims.

ENERGY AUSTRALIA STATEMENT

“Today, Energy Australia acknowledges that carbon offsetting is not the most effective way to assist customers to reduce their emissions and apologises to any customer who felt that the way it marketed its Go Neutral products was unclear.

Energy Australia has now shifted its focus to direct emissions reductions.

Energy Australia acknowledges the importance of consumers understanding the climate impact of products and services offered to them and that offsets are not the most effective means of reducing greenhouse gas emissions.”

The false carbon neutrality claim of the Go Neutral scheme was certified by the Australian government through its Climate Active program.

On the 50th episode of After America, Nick Bryant joins Dr Emma Shortis to reflect on the second Trump presidency, why division is the default in American political history, and what the United States might look like after Trump.

This discussion was recorded on Thursday 15 May 2025 and things may have changed since recording.

Order After America: Australia and the new world order or become a foundation subscriber to Vantage Point at australiainstitute.org.au/store.

Guest: Nick Bryant, author of The Forever War: America’s unending conflict with itself // ‪@nickbryantoz

Host: Emma Shortis, Director, International & Security Affairs, the Australia Institute // @emmashortis

Show notes:

The Forever War: America’s unending conflict with itself by Nick Bryant (2024)

When America Stopped Being Great: a history of the present by Nick Bryant (2020)

On this episode, Allan Behm joins Paul Barclay to discuss Australia’s diplomatic strategy of ‘pre-emptive capitulation’, America’s international bullying and how Australia should use its unrecognised national power.

This discussion was recorded on Monday 24 February 2025 and things may have changed since the recording.

Order What’s the Big Idea? 32 Big Ideas for a Better Australia now, via the Australia Institute website.

Guest: Allan Behm, Special Advisor in International & Security Affairs, the Australia Institute

Host: Paul Barclay, Walkley Award winning journalist and broadcaster // @PaulBarclay

Show notes:  

AUSFTA: A bad deal then. Even worse now. by Jack Thrower, the Australia Institute (March 2025)

With friends like these, After America (February 2025)

Polling – President Trump, security and the US–Australian alliance, the Australia Institute (March 2025)

The Wrap with Amy Remeikis

Well it didn’t take long for it to be business as usual, did it?

Not even two weeks out from a humiliating loss, the Coalition is still pretending it remains just as relevant as ever, with shadow finance minister Jane Hume issuing orders to the government on its planned modest super changes.

In case you need a refresher, Labor plans on lowering the tax break from 30% to 15% on earnings on super balances over $3 million.

So it’s not even the total. It is a tiny change that means people with superannuation balances over $3 million will get a slightly lower tax break on the earnings (like the interest) above $3 million.  Everything under $3 million is untouched.  You may have heard this could end retirement in Australia. It’s such a massive change that it is going to impact a whopping 80,000 people, or 0.5% of the population. Even taking into account inflation, we are talking about a giant 550,000 people from the working population of 14.5 million people.

So please, bring out your violins for the (at most) 3.5% of people this is going to impact, who will be receiving a slightly smaller tax break on their multi-million dollar super earnings, and are already (if you speak to accountants) working to restructure their assets as businesses, so they can maintain a higher tax break.

For many of us, the end of June will mark the return of soft plastic recycling run by the Soft Plastics Taskforce (SPT), which is made up of the three major supermarkets: Woolworths Group, Coles Group and ALDI. But this may be premature since the joint recycling strategy from the Ministry of the Environment and Water and the Ministry of Climate Change and the Environment and the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) is still developing a plan to recycle legacy soft plastics that have been stockpiled following the collapse of REDcycle. The bins in supermarkets from June mean shoppers will be able to deposit their soft plastics at the front of participating supermarkets nationwide; however, since the capacity to recycle all plastics is not yet a reality, this will only be a trial.

The research explores the declining influence of media endorsements and leaders’ debates on election outcomes.

Key points:

• The 2025 and 2022 elections are the only ones in the past thirty years to have been won by a party without the endorsements of most major newspapers.
• Anthony Albanese leads the first Australian government to have never been endorsed by The Australian since the newspaper was founded in 1964.
• From 1996 to 2019, most Australian newspapers endorsed the winning party, including Kevin Rudd’s 2007 victory.
• This year’s televised leaders’ debates reached 12% of voters, at best.
• The first leaders’ debate, conducted behind a paywall on Sky News, was seen by, at best, 2% of voters.

“The endorsement of newspapers used to be much sought-after, but these days such endorsements are practically irrelevant,” said Joshua Black, report co-author and Postdoctoral Fellow at The Australia Institute.

“Despite the endorsements of all News Corp mastheads and the Australian Financial Review, the coalition suffered a major defeat.

“Anthony Albanese has now won two elections with only a handful of media endorsements.”

“Televised debates are still touted as key events but they are barely watched by voters,” said Skye Predavec, report co-author and Anne Kantor Fellow at The Australia Institute.

On this episode of Dollars & Sense, Elinor returns to discover the economy does in fact still exist, before her and Greg discuss the latest wage data, house prices and Trump blinking on his China tariffs.

This discussion was recorded on Thursday 15 May 2025 and things may have changed since recording.

Order ‘After America: Australia and the new world order’ or become a foundation subscriber to Vantage Point at australiainstitute.org.au/store.

Host: Greg Jericho, Chief Economist, the Australia Institute and Centre for Future Work // @grogsgamut

Host: Elinor Johnston-Leek, Senior Content Producer, the Australia Institute // @elinorjohnstonleek

Show notes:

‘Australia’s wage growth remains solid. But now the recovery needs to be sustained’ by Greg Jericho, Guardian Australia (May 2025)

Economist busts myths on QandA | Richard Denniss highlights, the Australia Institute (April 2025)

Despite the need to reduce absolute greenhouse gas emissions in line with climate science, the government continues to promote carbon offsetting and certify claims of “carbon neutrality” by the fossil fuel industry and other big emitters through its Climate Active scheme.

The Climate Active scheme actively encourages consumers to “make a positive impact right now, by supporting these organisations” without offering any proof that the businesses it certifies are taking climate action or verifying that emissions are being “offset”.

The Australia Institute has previously filed a complaint with the ACCC on the basis that Climate Active may be misleading and deceptive under consumer law.

The Australia Institute’s 2024 Climate of the Nation showed that there is widespread confusion around carbon offsets and carbon neutrality, and that the government should be responsible for verifying claims by industry:

On this episode of Follow the Money, Stephen Long, Walkley Award-winning journalist and Australia Institute Contributing Editor, joins Ebony Bennett to discuss the Murdoch press bogeyman, supporting the public broadcasters and the prospects for major, progressive reforms in the second Albanese term.

This discussion was recorded on Tuesday 13 May 2025 and things may have changed.

Order ‘After America: Australia and the new world order’ or become a foundation subscriber to our Vantage Point series and save 25% on the Australia Institute website.

Guest: Stephen Long, Senior Fellow and Contributing Editor, the Australia Institute // @stephenlongaus

Host: Ebony Bennet, Deputy Director, the Australia Institute // @ebonybennett

Show notes:

Worth a Punt – 2% Levy on Gambling Revenue Could Replace Free-To-Air Advertising Spend by Stephen Long and David Richardson, the Australia Institute (August 2024)

Australia’s Vice Chancellors are among the highest paid in the world, at a time when the institutions they oversee are plummeting down international rankings.

The new analysis, which is now before a Senate Inquiry, recommends sweeping changes to the governance of Australian universities, to deliver better results for students, greater scrutiny of universities’ accounts and a significant increase in transparency within the higher education sector.

The first recommendation is a cap on Vice Chancellor salaries at $430,000 per year, which would more than halve the pay of those currently earning the most.

The submission is now before the Senate Education and Employment Legislation Committee’s Inquiry on Tertiary Education Legislation Amendment (There For Education, Not Profit) Bill 2025.

The 55 groups congratulate the Prime Minister on his resounding election victory, which they say has delivered a mandate for “optimistic and ambitious” action on climate change.

The letter – published in several newspapers today – points out that, as well as being an existential threat, climate change has intensified the cost-of-living crisis, pushing up energy, grocery and insurance prices.

The signatories call upon the re-elected Albanese government to commit to a fast and fair phase-out of fossil fuels, in line with the goals of the Paris Agreement.

“This is the opportunity of a lifetime for the Prime Minister,” said Mark Ogge, Principal Advisor at The Australia Institute.

“Anthony Albanese can be a leader who finally brings an end to Australia’s destructive fossil fuel addiction, while – at the same time – helping Australians through a cost-of-living crisis.

“The first and most important thing he can do right now is to stop the biggest, most destructive, most unnecessary fossil fuel project in the country: the expansion of the North West Shelf gas export terminal.

“This project would release more than four billion tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere.

“It would also allow the ongoing destruction of one of Australia’s and the world’s greatest cultural treasures – the 40,000-year-old Murujuga rock engravings. These are eight times older than the pyramids and are being ruined by acid gas emissions from the adjacent gas plant.