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The Wrap with Amy Remeikis

Well, that was quite the week, wasn’t it?

We wouldn’t blame you if you’re feeling a little bit flat.  While many people may have thought they were prepared for a Trump victory, thinking it and seeing it happen are two very different things.  Moo Deng may have tried to warn us Trump was heading for a conclusive victory, but that doesn’t mean there weren’t still hopes America would choose differently.

And while there are concerns over how Trump will handle domestic concerns, particularly for immigrants, women and minorities, the result of this election doesn’t just change the United States – it has ramifications for the world.

The world order as we know it looks set to be turned on its head.

Trump hasn’t been shy in expressing his love of the fossil fuel industry, something which clearly resonated with Australia’s Gina Rinehart who was spotted at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago as one of the soon-to-be 47th president’s “special people”, which will make meeting the world’s climate goals even more difficult.

Rinehart believed she was on the winner’s ticket from the beginning – she met with the Trump campaign the first time round in 2016, after which she urged the Australian government to adopt his economic policies.

Fast forward eight years and Australia’s richest woman hasn’t changed her tune, telling the Australian newspaper early last week “the world would be better off with more leaders like Trump”.

In light of reports, they are seeking increases above 5%, it is worth remembering that private health insurance is a terrible way to deliver good health outcomes.

You can’t say public policy is always worse in America, but aside from how they conduct elections, the one policy the US does worse than anywhere else is healthcare.

Among OECD nations, the US spends the most on health and as a reward they have one of the worst life expectancies:

There are several reasons why they have this outcome – from structural racism to the serious lack of economic safety nets such as decent minimum wages – but the chief reason is their healthcare overly relies on private insurance in a manner unlike most other nations.

Although the introduction of the Affordable Care Act has shifted some private health insurance from voluntary to compulsory, the nation still massively relies on a system designed to profit from people’s ill heath:

My oma would read me Aesop’s fables as a child because she believed stories should always teach you something. And that something was always easier to learn through the lessons of someone else.

My favourite was The Wolf and the Lamb.

I would listen as she would tell me of the wolf looking to justify his actions by finding some blame in the lamb he wished to eat.

But the lamb did not feed from the wolf’s pasture, did not drink from his spring.  The lamb had not lived long enough to insult the wolf.  But still the wolf ate the lamb, citing his right to dinner.

The lesson; the tyrant will always find a pretext for his tyranny, and it is useless to appeal for justice from an unjust oppressor.

And so, how then, does one beat the wolf? After all, Aesop also told us of the shepherd who learnt once a wolf, always a wolf, after the one he trusted ate half his flock.

The answer, my oma would say, was to be brave.

Like the mice who lived in fear of the barn cat but could not find the bravery to hang a bell from its neck. Without bravery, things continue much as they always have.

The wolf will find the justification to eat the lamb no matter how unfair.

It wasn’t the tale itself that made it a favourite.  It was that the answer in beating the wolf was so obvious.

Malcolm Turnbull, Australia’s 29th Prime Minister, joins Dr Emma Shortis to discuss why sucking up to Trump will get Australian leaders nowhere and how the AUKUS “shocker” is making Australia more dependent on the United States, right at the time America is becoming less dependable.

This discussion was recorded on Friday 8 November 2024 US time and things may have changed since recording.

Guest: Malcolm Turnbull, the 29th Prime Minister of Australia // @TurnbullMalcolm

Host: Emma Shortis, Director of International & Security Affairs, the Australia Institute // @EmmaShortis

Show notes:

‘The Bad Guys: How to Deal with our Illiberal Friends’, Australian Foreign Affairs (October 2022)

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How do profits drive inflation?

From December 2019 to June 2023, inflation in Australia rose faster than it has in 30 years. Over this time, the share of national income going to corporate profits also increased substantially.

At the same time, the share going to wages and small businesses declined.

The profits made by large corporations during this time are huge: some $100 billion over and above their pre-pandemic profit margins.

According to Australia Institute research, these rising profits made up more than half of the inflation above the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)’s target range of 2% to 3%.

The link between profits and inflation in Australia was replicated in research by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), headed by former Liberal Finance Minister Mathias Cormann.

The research found that while a majority of drivers wanted to purchase an EV next time they buy a car, the government’s focus on improving charging infrastructure – at the expense of helping with the upfront cost of an EV – is putting the brakes on sales.

New data, released today by the Australian Automobile Association, reveals sales of fully electric vehicles fell by 25% in the three months to September.

Vehicle emissions account for almost 20% of the state’s overall emissions.

While the biggest obstacle for choosing an electric vehicle is the upfront cost, the government’s EV policies are almost entirely focused on expanding and improving charging infrastructure.

The Australia Institute surveyed 800 NSW residents between 6 September and 10 September 2024. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5%.

In the last of our daily election episodes of After America, Dr Emma Shortis reflects on the glass ceiling in American politics, the Democrats’ failure to address their own shortcomings over the last three decades, and why the Australian Government doesn’t need to just cop whatever challenges the next US administration throws at it.

This discussion was recorded on Thursday 7 November 2024 US time and things may have changed since recording.

Host: Emma Shortis, Director of International & Security Affairs, the Australia Institute // @EmmaShortis

Show notes:

Thick: And Other Essays by Tressie McMillan Cottom (January 2019)

‘Kidnapping, assassination and a London shoot-out: Inside the CIA’s secret war plans against WikiLeaks’, Yahoo! News (September 2021)

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On this episode of Dollars & Sense, Greg and Elinor discuss the big structural problems with Australia’s private health insurance system and why public services like healthcare are best carried out by the public sector.

Greg Jericho is Chief Economist at the Australia Institute and the Centre for Future Work and popular columnist of Grogonomics with Guardian Australia. Each week on Dollars & Sense, Greg dives into the latest economic figures to explain what they can tell us about what’s happening in the economy, how it will impact you and where things are headed.

Host: Greg Jericho, Chief Economist, the Australia Institute and Centre for Future Work // @GrogsGamut

Host: Elinor Johnston-Leek, Senior Content Producer, the Australia Institute // @ElinorJ_L

Show notes:

‘Is private health insurance a con? The answer is in the graphs’ by Greg Jericho, Guardian Australia (February 2018)

On this episode of After America, Dr Emma Shortis and Alice Grundy discuss what the Trump victory means for American society and democratic institutions, the soul-searching facing the Democrats after a comprehensive defeat, and the implications for Australia.

This discussion was recorded on Wednesday 6 November 2024 and things may have changed since recording.

Host: Emma Shortis, Director of International & Security Affairs, the Australia Institute // @EmmaShortis

Host: Alice Grundy, Research Manager, Anne Kantor Fellows, the Australia Institute // @alicekgt

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We’d love to hear your feedback on this series, so send in your questions, comments or suggestions for future episodes to podcasts@australiainstitute.org.au.

The Australia Institute’s submission to the inquiry identified serious conflict of interest risks in the consulting industry and polling found most Australians support a ban on PwC receiving new government work.

Key details:

• The inquiry into Structural Challenges in the Audit, Assurance and Consultancy Industry was called after serious problems in the consulting industry came to light.

• The inquiry report recommends:

  • Continuing the ban on PwC tenders for government work until all ongoing investigations have been completed.
  • Limiting partnerships to no more than 400 partners.
  • Professional standards and regulations for consultants.
  • Applying the Corporations Act to large partnerships.
  • Greater alignment of whistleblower protections and applying those protections to large audit, accounting and consulting firms.
  • “Operational separation” of audit services from other services to the same client.

• Most of the recommendations, including some of the most important, received multi-party support.

“Australians have understandably lost confidence in consulting firms following multiple scandals, including mismanaged conflicts of interest, leaking of confidential government information and burying information that reflected badly on the illegal Robodebt scheme,” said Bill Browne, Director of the Australia Institute’s Democracy & Accountability Program.

It is a timely reminder that for all its faults, Australian democracy is a model for the world: with independently administered elections, where voters can list their true preferences without throwing away their vote, and compulsory voting that ensures that the voices of the disadvantaged and disaffected are heard.

The Australia Institute Tasmania Director Eloise Carr and I have identified three key reforms that could improve Tasmanian elections and the integrity and accountability of its government:

• Stronger political donations disclosure laws so that Tasmanians know where their politicians get the money from.
• Truth in political advertising laws to ensure parties and candidates face consequences for misleading advertising.
• Strengthening the Tasmanian Integrity Commission, the state’s underfunded anti-corruption watchdog.

The diversity of voices elected to the Tasmanian Parliament gives hope that these, and other reforms we recommended in the Democracy Agenda for the 51st Tasmanian Parliament, will be taken up.

In fact, there is only a hearing today because one of the recommended reforms has already been adopted: the creation of the Tasmanian Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters.

Most other Australian jurisdictions have these committees, which review each election for lessons learned, any problems that occurred and ways to improve the system for next time.

On the final pre-election episode of After America, Matthew Bevan and Dr Emma Shortis reflect on an enormous Harris rally in Philadelphia, whether the polls have anything useful to tell us, and the dangers of a contested result.

Guest: Matthew Bevan, host and writer of If You’re Listening, the ABC // @MatthewBevan

Host: Emma Shortis, Director of International & Security Affairs, the Australia Institute // @EmmaShortis

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We’d love to hear your feedback on this series, so send in your questions, comments or suggestions for future episodes to podcasts@australiainstitute.org.au.

These tiny margins, and the general confusion around American politics today, make it impossible to predict the outcome.

The polls might well be wrong: the electorate may have shifted dramatically since 2020 in ways that will only reveal themselves after the election. The reality is we do not know much of anything for sure, and we may never be able to untangle all of the threads that make up the knot of American politics.

After two assassination attempts on Trump and incumbent President Joe Biden’s dramatic decision to leave the race in August, it is entirely possible this election will throw up more big surprises. But as things stand, there are three broad possibilities for what will happen on Election Day.

All of them throw up their own challenges – for the United States, and for the world.

Possibility 1: the return of Trump

Trump may make history and win back the White House. Only Grover Cleveland has managed to get elected a second time as president (in 1892) after suffering a defeat four years earlier.

If Trump does win, it could be via a similar path to the one he took in 2016 – by once again sundering the “blue wall” and winning the battleground states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan.

This feat will likely mean his campaign tactic of mobilising men has worked.

On this episode of Follow the Money, Australia Institute International & Security Affairs Advisor Allan Behm joins us to discuss the “unachievable” AUKUS nuclear submarine deal, Australia’s ‘fear of abandonment’, and how the outcome of the presidential election might change US foreign policy.

Guest: Allan Behm, International & Security Affairs Advisor, the Australia Institute // @Mirandaprorsus

Host: Ebony Bennett, Deputy Director, the Australia Institute // @ebony_bennett

Show notes:

The Odd Couple: the Australia-America relationship by Allan Behm (2024)

No Enemies No Friends: Restoring Australia’s Global Relevance by Allan Behm (2022)

Fear of Abandonment: Australia in the World since 1942 by Allan Gyngell (2021)

Theme music: Pulse and Thrum; additional music by Blue Dot Sessions

On the eve of the 2024 Transparency Summit in Canberra tomorrow, the Australia Institute contrasts the United States, where whistleblower rewards have encouraged the recovery of billions of dollars from white collar criminals, to Australia, where corporate malfeasance appears to be rife and protections and support for whistleblowers are limited.

Key Findings:

• Under just one of several whistleblower reward schemes in the US, whistleblowers have been awarded over A$1.4 billion, from enforcement actions worth over A$8.3 billion.
• Whistleblowers in the US can receive up to 30% of money recovered.
• A revenue contingent payment mechanism, modelled on the HECS/HELP scheme, would allow Australia to recover whistleblower rewards and fines from offenders.
• Three in five Australians (62%) support rewards for whistleblowers who expose corporate wrongdoing, four times as many as oppose them (16%).

“Many of the worst examples of corporate wrongdoing have been exposed by whistleblowers. It’s time whistleblowers were protected and compensated,” said Professor Allan Fels AO.

“Whistleblowers are brave people who expose the truth about corporate misconduct and wrongdoing. They should be protected and celebrated, not punished,” said Kieran Pender, Acting Legal Director at the Human Rights Law Centre.

“A whistleblower incentive program, alongside improved whistleblower protections, would encourage more people to come forward to hold companies accountable for wrongdoing.

Bruce Thompson joins Dr Emma Shortis to discuss what it’s like to live in a battleground state in the heat of a presidential campaign, the prospect of legal challenges from the Trump in the event of a Democratic victory, and who Harris might pick as her Secretary of State if she wins the election.

This discussion was recorded on Friday 1 November 2024 and things may have changed since recording.

Guest: R. Bruce Thompson II, Partner, Parker Poe

Host: Emma Shortis, Director of International & Security Affairs, the Australia Institute // @EmmaShortis

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We’d love to hear your feedback on this series, so send in your questions, comments or suggestions for future episodes to podcasts@australiainstitute.org.au.

The post Will women win Kamala Harris the election? appeared first on The Australia Institute.

On this episode of After America, Timor-Leste President José Ramos-Horta joins Dr Emma Shortis to discuss the US-China relationship and his disillusionment with the Western response to the Israel’s actions in Gaza.

This discussion was recorded on Wednesday 9 October 2024 and things may have changed since recording.

Guest: His Excellency José Ramos-Horta, President of Timor-Leste and Nobel Peace Laureate // @JoseRamosHorta1

Host: Emma Shortis, Director of International & Security Affairs, the Australia Institute // @EmmaShortis

Show notes:

Statement of the Secretary-General on Israeli legislation on UNRWA, United Nations (October 2024)

UNRWA cannot be replaced, say UN top officials in response to Knesset ban, United Nations (October 2024)

Occupied Palestinian Territory, United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs

On this episode of After America, Yanis Varoufakis joins Dr Emma Shortis to discuss the prospect of a grand deal between the US and China on climate, how Trump emerged from the Obama presidency, and why America isn’t a real democracy.

This discussion was recorded on Friday 1 November 2024 and things may have changed since recording.

Guest: Yanis Varoufakis, economist, politician, author and the former finance minister of Greece // @yanisvaroufakis

Host: Emma Shortis, Director of International & Security Affairs, the Australia Institute // @EmmaShortis

Show notes:

‘The end of capitalism with Yanis Varoufakis’, Follow the Money (March 2024)

Yanis Varoufakis – Technofeudalism, National Press Club Address (March 2024)

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Elections in the ACT and on the northern beaches of Sydney suggest a movement is on foot.

Canberrans elected two independents, whose vote swelled at the expense of both major parties and the Greens. In the NSW state electorate of Pittwater, the community (or “teal”) independent Jacqui Scruby was victorious in what was, until recently, a safe Liberal seat.

The shift is part of a decades-long decline in the major party vote. At the 1990 federal, election just 9 per cent voted for a minor party or independent. In 2022 the figure was 32 per cent, not far short of the primary votes for Labor and the Liberal-National Coalition.

With the Labor government in the ACT approaching a quarter-century of rule (sharing power with the Greens for most of that time), proportional representation allowed Canberrans to elect a counter-veiling force without replacing the government with the Liberal opposition.

While the two independents will not hold balance of power, as parliamentarians they can influence parliamentary debate, propose legislation and question the executive.

The independents also offer a glimpse at a path back to power for the opposition, a point made by the last Liberal chief minister to win election in the ACT. “For the Libs to get up, they really need more independents”, Kate Carnell said on election night.

Across the states and territories, major party politicians are warming to independents and minor parties, and even the value of power-sharing in minority and coalition governments.

These companies have never paid company tax, despite exporting the equivalent of 15 years of gas used by Australians in the eastern states.

These companies have also been exempted from the Petroleum Resource Rent Tax, the tax that is supposed to cover gas production in Australia.

“It is amazing that companies making $36 billion of income exporting Australian gas could pay no company tax, said Mark Ogge, Principle Adviser at the Australia institute.

“If you paid any tax in 2022-23, you paid more than all these gas corporations combined.

“Australians are missing out on schools, hospitals, housing and cost of living relief because foreign-owned gas exporters are taking us for a ride, and our governments are doing nothing about it.”

The post Gas companies export $36 billion of gas from Queensland, pay zero tax … again appeared first on The Australia Institute.

As a key accountability mechanism for exposing public and private sector wrongdoing, it is time we recognise the role of whistleblowers in the pursuit of climate integrity.

But without fixing Australia’s broken whistleblowing laws, the risks for whistleblowers to speak up about climate and environmental wrongdoing will remain too high.

On this special crossover episode of After America and Presidency Pending, Associate Professor Zim Nwokora and Associate Professor Clare Corbould from Deakin University join Dr Emma Shortis to discuss whether reproductive rights will mobilise enough voters for Kamala Harris in key states and the role of Biden in the campaign.

This discussion was recorded on Wednesday 30 October 2024 and things may have changed since recording.

Guest: Zim Nwokora, Associate Professor, Deakin University

Guest: Clare Corbould, Associate Head of School, Research Faculty of Arts and Education/School of Humanities and Social Sciences, Deakin University // @clarecorbould

Host: Emma Shortis, Director of International & Security Affairs, the Australia Institute // @EmmaShortis

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Three years on, there is still no compelling argument, strategic or otherwise, for Australia’s acquiring eight Virginia class nuclear-propelled submarines (SSNs).

Nor is there any compelling calculation of the large lick of funding – $368 billion and more – that the program will soak up. Only Defence seems able to command such stupendous outlays when childcare, aged care, Medicare rebates, the National Disability Insurance Scheme, education and social housing fight it out for every cent they can get. The opportunity costs outweigh the value of the opportunity.

The two official documents released so far – one a self-proclaimed “strategic review” and the other a national defence strategy thinner than the paper on which it is printed – are strong on assertion and weak on analysis. They are all we have to justify this extraordinary indulgence in national hubris.

The policy imperative that substantiates Royal Australian Navy (RAN) submarine deployment to the tropic of Cancer, China’s front door, is unknown. The force structure consequences of this unconstrained ambition are unevaluated. The implications for naval capability and the associated personnel requirements await assessment. The industrial and technological demands on the manufacturing sector are unstated, unplanned and unfunded. AUKUS is the triumph of ambition over achievability.

On the 50th episode of Dollars & Sense, Greg and Elinor discuss nuclear power furphies, the latest inflation data and how much the big four banks are profiting from home loans.

Greg Jericho is Chief Economist at the Australia Institute and the Centre for Future Work and popular columnist of Grogonomics with Guardian Australia. Each week on Dollars & Sense, Greg dives into the latest economic figures to explain what they can tell us about what’s happening in the economy, how it will impact you and where things are headed.

Host: Greg Jericho, Chief Economist, the Australia Institute and Centre for Future Work // @GrogsGamut

Host: Elinor Johnston-Leek, Senior Content Producer, the Australia Institute // @ElinorJ_L

Show notes:

‘Labor’s actions to lower inflation have worked – so why is the RBA unlikely to cut interest rates next week?’ by Greg Jericho, Guardian Australia (October 2024)

Profit in home lending, the Australia Institute (October 2024)

To succeed, it must have the confidence of the Australian public.

Several of its actions and decisions – including the current mess relating to whether or not it will investigate six people referred to it by the Robodebt Royal Commission – risk eroding public confidence.

Now, just 16 months after it was established, the powers and governance of the NACC need to be reviewed to ensure it lives up to the trust placed in it.

The Australia Institute, which campaigned for a decade to introduce a federal integrity commission, recommends five changes to make the NACC more effective and rebuild public confidence.

Key recommendations:

• Bring forward the statutory review of the NACC
  • A statutory review is scheduled to take place in three years. This review should be brought forward and initiated now.
• Allow public hearings whenever it is in the public interest to do so.
• Implement a Whistleblower Protection Authority.
• Ensure the Parliamentary Committee which oversees the NACC is not controlled by the government of the day.
• Broaden the powers of the NACC Inspector.

“When the National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC) was created in 2022, Australians had high expectations, given a string of high-profile integrity issues in government had been identified,” said Bill Browne, Director, Democracy & Accountability Program at the Australia Institute.

A notable trend in Australian politics has been the decline of the share of the vote won by both major parties at federal elections. One effect of this is that there are no longer any safe seats in Australian politics: minor parties and independents win more “safe” seats than they do “marginal” ones.

The declining major party vote

Fewer Australians give their first preference to a major party. The 2007 federal election is the last at which both Labor and the Liberal-National Coalition won more than 40% of the national vote; the 2022 election was the first time that neither cracked 40%.

The share of Australians voting outside of the major parties has increased from single digits in the 1970s to 31% at the most recent election in 2022, almost as many as the 36% who voted for the Coalition and 33% who voted for Labor. Not since the Great Depression has the combined vote for the two largest parties been so low.

The effect of a lower primary vote for major parties is that minor parties and independents have a better chance of winning seats.

Australia’s “broken” superannuation and pension systems are condemning a growing number of retirees to financial misery in their sunset years.

More than one in five Australians live in poverty when they retire. And that number is growing.

With housing affordability at an all-time low, many Australians now face the brutal double whammy of going through their entire working life unable to afford a home and ending up in poverty when they retire.

But there’s a simple change the government could make to slash the nation’s embarrassingly high rate of retirement poverty. It could reduce or remove the massive concessions to those retiring with millions of dollars and use that money to increase to the Age Pension.

It could also allow older Australians to earn income to supplement the Age Pension.

New research by the Australia Institute has found that Australia spends almost as much giving tax breaks to wealthy retirees as it does providing a safety net, the Age Pension, to those with little or no retirement savings.

The research compares Australia’s superannuation scheme and Age Pension program to the equivalent systems in Sweden and Norway, nations with comparable GDP’s to Australia.

On this episode of Follow the Money, Australia Institute Executive Director Richard Denniss joins Ebony Bennett to discuss the fake fight between the new Queensland Premier and Peter Dutton over nuclear power and the fallout from the state election.

This discussion was recorded on Tuesday 29 October 2024 and things may have changed since recording.

Guest: Richard Denniss, Executive Director, the Australia Institute // @RDNS_TAI

Host: Ebony Bennett, Deputy Director, the Australia Institute // @ebony_bennett

Show notes:

Queensland election: A clear message to Federal Labor, the Australia Institute (October 2024)

‘Federal Labor’s lesson from Qld defeat: bold progressive policies provide a pathway to a second term’ by Stephen Long, the Australia Institute (October 2024)

Theme music: Pulse and Thrum; additional music by Blue Dot Sessions

Comedian and co-host of Planet America on ABC TV, Chas Licciardello, joins Dr Emma Shortis to discuss why the campaigns are spending time in states they’re unlikely to win and what their advertising reveals about the campaigns’ strategies.

Guest: Chas Licciardello, comedian and co-host of Planet America and PEP // @chaslicc

Host: Emma Shortis, Director of International & Security Affairs, the Australia Institute // @EmmaShortis

Show notes:

PEP with Chas and Dr Dave

Planet America, ABC iview

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Last week, 30 of the nation’s top marine scientists urged Ms Plibersek to intervene to save the skate, an ancient ray-like species found only in a remote corner of western Tasmania.

There is a mountain of scientific evidence proving that expanded salmon farming operations in Macquarie Harbour – home to the world’s only Maugean sake population – are almost certain to have a “catastrophic” impact on the skate.

The Minister has had that evidence for more than a year, with scientists urging her to overturn a 2012 decision which allowed toxic, industrial-scale salmon farming in Macquarie Harbour.

Now, the Minister has put off making yet another key decision on the future of the skate. She’s delayed changing the skate’s official threatened species status from “endangered” to “critically endangered” by a year, to October 30, 2025 – after the federal election.

On this episode of After America, Dr Emma Shortis and Alice Grundy discuss Trump’s Madison Square Garden rally, Eminem’s appearance at a Harris event in Detroit, and what this election result could mean for Australia.

This discussion was recorded on Monday 28 October 2024 and things may have changed since recording.

Host: Emma Shortis, Director of International & Security Affairs, the Australia Institute // @EmmaShortis

Host: Alice Grundy, Research Manager, Anne Kantor Fellows, the Australia Institute // @alicekgt

Show notes:

‘In the US election, 7 states and a few ‘swing voters’ have all the power. This is exposing hidden tensions in both campaigns’ by Emma Shortis, The Conversation (October 2024)

The Odd Couple: the Australia-America relationship by Allan Behm (2024)

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New research by The Australia Institute reveals that while so many Australian families are struggling after 13 interest rate rises, much of what they pay doesn’t go towards paying bank staff, improving services or keeping branches open.

It goes towards making Australian banks among the most profitable in the world.

Key findings:

• Between them, the Commonwealth Bank, NAB, Westpac and ANZ made pre-tax profits of $44.6 billion last financial year.
• $17.6 billion of that figure came from loans to owner-occupiers.
• An owner-occupier with an average 30-year loan of $574,200 with one of the big 4 contributes $200,800 purely to the bank’s profit. Over the life of the average loan, that’s almost 35% of the amount they borrowed.
• ABS data shows that banks are sharply cutting staff numbers in Australia. The number of people working in banking, insurance and other financial institutions fell by more than 35,000 between November 2023 and August 2024. At the same time, banks have been hiring hundreds of workers in other parts of the world, predominantly India.

“This report highlights that a lack of competition among the big banks has come at the cost of home owners,” said Greg Jericho, Chief Economist at The Australia Institute.

“The big 4 are generating massive profits from home loans that far exceed the level of risk the banks undertake.

In an election campaign dominated by law and order and an ‘it’s time’ factor, the Queensland Labor Party released an ambitious raft of popular, progressive policies that has kept the new Liberal National government to a narrow majority. The big swing to the LNP predicted before the election campaign did not arrive, especially in Brisbane.

The implications for the Federal election are clear: voters want progressive policies on cost of living, climate change, reproductive rights, education and more.

New polling research by The Australia Institute, released just days before the election, revealed broad support for 12 progressive policies, even in policy areas which had previously proven controversial.

These policies appear to have been the difference between last night’s narrow defeat of Queensland Labor and electoral wipeout expected by so many commentators at the beginning of the campaign.

The Wrap with Dr Emma Shortis

What Australia does matters.

We tend to think of ourselves as not having much influence or power in the world, but that’s not true. We’ve led the world on many things – including in our contribution to climate change.

While leaders of Commonwealth countries met in Samoa for CHOGM, a new report shines a spotlight on Australia as a global leader in carbon emissions. We’re second only to Russia in emissions from fossil fuel exports – and the Australian government is busy promising the largest pipeline of coal export projects in the world.

Pacific nations are furious at our determination not just to approve new gas and coal mines, but to subsidise their expansion.

In Samoa this week, President of Tuvalu Feleti Teo described fossil fuel expansion as a “death sentence” for his country. He pointed out that the expansion of Australian fossil fuel exports goes against the “spirit” of the Falepili Union between Tuvalu and Australia, which recognises that climate change is an “existential threat”.

But rather than stop opening new coal mines to address that real threat, the Australian government seems determined to pour vast amounts of money into missiles and nuclear-powered submarines. As the President of Timor-Leste José Ramos-Horta wrote, neither of those things will actually make us safer.

The Australia Institute’s inaugural 2024 Transparency Summit brought together experts, whistleblowers and those working to ensure the interests of all Australians are represented in our policy-making process.

We are sleepwalking towards disaster when we accept the idea that the more secret we are about decision-making, the safer we’ll be.

– Richard Denniss, Executive Director of the Australia Institute

Here are six big ideas to reverse Australia’s culture of secrecy: 

The first title What’s the Big Idea: 32 Big Ideas for a Better Australia will be published in November 2024 in time to mark The Australia Institute’s 30 years of big ideas anniversary.

The anthology brings together some of Australia and the world’s brightest thinkers sharing a big idea on topics ranging from the housing crisis to climate change, from mental health to the Australia-US alliance.

Contributors include The Hon. Michael Kirby AC, Yanis Varoufakis, His Excellency Anote Tong, Aunty Pat Anderson, Jennifer Robinson, Professor Fiona Stanley and Nobel prize winners Professor Peter Doherty and Professor Brian Schmidt and more.

Australia Institute Press will also launching a new series of public policy essays, Vantage Point: Big ideas in small packages to be released every three months starting with Dr Emma Shortis’ analysis of the American election, to be published in February 2025.

Australia Institute Press will be managed by Alice Grundy, whose previous trade publishing experience includes working at Allen & Unwin, Murdoch, Giramondo and Brio Books where she was Associate Publisher.

When you choose your superannuation fund, you’re probably not thinking about weapons of mass destruction.

But it might surprise you to learn that if you’re with one of Australia’s largest funds, your money is going into the production of nuclear weapons.

Research published last month by Quit Nukes and The Australia Institute found that 13 of Australia’s 14 biggest public super funds invested a combined total of $3.4 billion in companies involved in the production of nuclear weapons, as of December 2023.

Australian Super—Australia’s largest fund—was the biggest investor, with nearly $1.5 billion of its members’ money funnelled into nuclear weapons companies.  Hostplus was the only fund out of the top 14 that had excluded nuclear weapons from its portfolio.

If that wasn’t enough, two of the funds—Australian Super and Spirit Super—invest in nuclear weapons companies with their ethical investment options. You read that right: “ethical” investments in nuclear weapons.

Most people would be shocked to hear their money is being used to fund nukes.

How do super funds get away with it? It comes down to the way they define nuclear weapons.

All super funds apply various “screens” to exclude certain types of investments from their portfolios, for example companies involved in fossil fuels or tobacco.

The first title What’s the Big Idea: 32 Big Ideas for a Better Australia will be published in November 2024 in time to mark The Australia Institute’s 30 years of big ideas anniversary.

The anthology brings together some of Australia and the world’s brightest thinkers sharing a big idea on topics ranging from the housing crisis to climate change, from mental health to the Australia-US alliance.

Contributors include The Hon. Michael Kirby AC, Yanis Varoufakis, His Excellency Anote Tong, Aunty Pat Anderson, Jennifer Robinson, Professor Fiona Stanley and Nobel prize winners Professor Peter Doherty and Professor Brian Schmidt and more.

Australia Institute Press will also launching a new series of public policy essays, Vantage Point: Big ideas in small packages to be released every three months starting with Dr Emma Shortis’ analysis of the American election, to be published in February 2025.

Australia Institute Press will be managed by Alice Grundy, whose previous trade publishing experience includes working at Allen & Unwin, Murdoch, Giramondo and Brio Books where she was Associate Publisher.

On this episode of Dollars & Sense, Greg and Elinor discuss the Coalition’s new housing policy, the surveillance of workers and the latest unemployment data.

Greg Jericho is Chief Economist at the Australia Institute and the Centre for Future Work and popular columnist of Grogonomics with Guardian Australia. Each week on Dollars & Sense, Greg dives into the latest economic figures to explain what they can tell us about what’s happening in the economy, how it will impact you and where things are headed.

Host: Greg Jericho, Chief Economist, the Australia Institute and Centre for Future Work // @GrogsGamut

Host: Elinor Johnston-Leek, Senior Content Producer, the Australia Institute // @ElinorJ_L

Show notes:

‘Australia’s unemployment figures are a reason for joy – even if it means waiting for the next interest rate cut’ by Greg Jericho, Guardian Australia (October 2024)

The Australia Institute and Quit Nukes looked at the holdings of Australia’s 14 biggest public superfunds, and found that 13 of those invest their members’ money in nuclear weapons.

This might seem strange, especially if your superfund says things like, “we believe in building a sustainable future,” or “we do what’s right with your money”.

Some funds do exclude so-called “controversial weapons”, at least from their “ethical options”. But their definition of “controversial weapon” includes for instance chemical or biological weapons, but not nuclear weapons.

In 2021, Quit Nukes and the Australia Institute analysed the investment portfolios of Australia’s largest superfunds and found that most of them invested their members’ money in companies involved in nuclear weapon production and development, such as Airbus, Honeywell or Thales.

So, how are superfunds tracking?

Well…as of December 2023, all of those funds, at the exception of HostPlus, continued to invest in nuclear weapons companies. This adds up to $3.4 billion dollars’ worth of your money invested in nuclear weapons companies.

At the top of the list, Australian Super, who claims to be “Australia’s most trusted fund” and to be “working hard for your future”, invests almost $1.5 billion of Australians’ money in nuclear weapon companies.

An ancient and endangered skate (related to rays and sharks), which can only be found in a remote corner of western Tasmania, could be wiped out by salmon farming, prompting an extraordinary warning from some of the nation’s foremost marine scientists.

14 Professors and five Fellows from the Australian Academy of Science are among more than 30 experts who have written to Environment and Water Minister Tanya Plibersek to defend the science behind the plight of the Maugean skate, which is teetering on the brink of extinction.

The salmon industry and some politicians have been seeking to undermine scientific evidence which overwhelming finds that open cage salmon farming in Macquarie Harbour is the primary cause of the skate’s demise.

The skate is recognised as one of the Gondwana-era natural values of Tasmania’s Wilderness World Heritage Area. Its potential extinction carries global significance.

Signatories to the letter also include the immediate former Chair of Australia’s Threatened Species Scientific Committee plus a string of scientists who have had leadership roles in national and international marine organisations and institutions.

The report, titled ‘Proactive investment: Policies to increase rates of active transportation’, shows that the Commonwealth Government’s four year, $100m National Active Transport Fund has only enough money to build 25-50 km of new, separated bike paths.

In contrast, France plans to invest EUR 2 billion (around AUD 3.2 billion) in cycling infrastructure between 2023 and 2027, and has committed to building 100,000 km of bicycle lanes by 2030.

Just 0.7% of Australians cycle to work, and rates of cycling are declining.

Stronger uptake of active transport options – like walking, cycling, and scooters – would help ease traffic congestion and improve public health.

On this episode of Follow the Money, Bill Browne, Democracy & Accountability Director at the Australia Institute, joins Ebony Bennett to discuss whistleblower protections, improving the National Anti-Corruption Commission, and why Australia may be the world’s most secretive democracy.

This discussion was recorded live on Tuesday 22 October 2024 and things may have changed since recording.

Find all the content from the Australia Institute’s Transparency Summit 2024 on our website or via the Australia Institute on YouTube.

Guest: Bill Browne, Director, Democracy & Accountability Program, the Australia Institute // @Browne90

Host: Ebony Bennett, Deputy Director, the Australia Institute // @ebony_bennett

Show notes:

Secrecy is not security, Bill Browne (October 2024)

Labor and Democracy, the Hon Anthony Albanese MP (December 2019)

As opinion polls suggest the Miles Labor Government is closing the gap on the Liberal National Opposition ahead of this Saturday’s state election, new research from The Australia Institute reveals most Queenslanders support cost of living, environmental and reproductive rights policies.

The research follows existing Australia Institute polling research which finds most Australians support proven but politically controversial policies from the Australian Capital Territory.

On this episode of After America, Dr Prudence Flowers, Senior Lecturer in US History at Flinders University, joins Dr Emma Shortis to discuss immigration, reproductive rights, and why Harris and Trump are hitting the podcast circuit.

This discussion was recorded on Monday 21 October 2024 and things may have changed since recording.

1800RESPECT is the national domestic, family and sexual violence counselling, information and support service. Call 1800 737 732, text 0458 737 732, chat online or video call via their website.

Guest: Prudence Flowers, Senior Lecturer in US History, Flinders University // @FlowersPGF

Host: Emma Shortis, Senior Research for International & Security Affairs, the Australia Institute // @EmmaShortis

Show notes:

‘Republicans once championed immigration in the US. Why has the party’s rhetoric – and public opinion – changed so dramatically?’ by Prudence Flowers, The Conversation (October 2024)

This week we saw once again efforts to improve housing affordability by doing anything other than actually building new houses.

The Liberal Party has announced that it will boost the housing supply by not actually building any new homes, but spending $5bn on “critical enabling infrastructure”.

The Opposition leader stated an “elected Coalition Government will commit $5 billion to get these projects moving, unlocking up to 500,000 homes to be delivered more quickly through a mixture of grants and concessional loans”.

It does not take long to realise this is just a $5bn gift to developers disguised as a housing policy.

Rather than spend $5bn building new homes over 5 years (which would almost be double what is currently spent building residential homes by the public sector across Australia), instead the Liberal Party proposes spending $5bn over 5 years to allow property developers to build infrastructure so that they can then sell land for a greater profit.

The Australia Institute led the push for the publication of the report in 2022.

It has been a month since the 2024 report was published and yet there has been no official response from Tasmania’s Government.

According to the 2024 report, the state government needs to commit to a new vision and strategy for the environment.

If Tasmania is to have a healthy environment, which is fundamental to the state’s economy and Tasmanian way of life, government inaction is not an option.

The post Inaction “not an option” after damning report into the state of Tasmania’s environment appeared first on The Australia Institute.

Exports and prices

Gas production in Australia has tripled since 2010, but domestic consumption has barely changed. This means that around 80% of gas produced in Australia is exported.

Gas export terminals opened at Gladstone in Queensland in late 2014. This meant that for the first time, gas could be exported from Australia’s east coast, giving gas companies the option to sell Australian gas into higher-priced Asian markets. This, in turn, meant that Australians suddenly had to pay world prices for domestically-produced gas.

Suddenly, Australian wholesale prices tripled from $3 per gigajoule (GJ) to $10 per GJ, and often rose even higher.

On this episode of Dollars & Sense, Greg and Elinor discuss the government’s crackdown on hidden fees, dynamic pricing and why reducing gender disparities can lead to better pay and fewer worker shortages.

Greg Jericho is Chief Economist at the Australia Institute and the Centre for Future Work and popular columnist of Grogonomics with Guardian Australia. Each week on Dollars & Sense, Greg dives into the latest economic figures to explain what they can tell us about what’s happening in the economy, how it will impact you and where things are headed.

Host: Greg Jericho, Chief Economist, the Australia Institute and Centre for Future Work // @GrogsGamut

Host: Elinor Johnston-Leek, Senior Content Producer, the Australia Institute // @ElinorJ_L

Show notes:

‘Here’s a way to fix Australia’s skills shortage – and raise wages at the same time’ by Greg Jericho, Guardian Australia (October 2024)

On this episode of Follow the Money, Paul Bongiorno, columnist for The Saturday Paper and The New Daily, joins Ebony Bennett to discuss culture wars in Australia, two upcoming elections, and the reaction to Anthony Albanese’s new beachside retreat.

This discussion was recorded live on Tuesday 15 October 2024 and things may have changed since recording.

Guest: Paul Bongiorno, columnist, The Saturday Paper and The New Daily // @PaulBongiorno

Host: Ebony Bennett, Deputy Director, the Australia Institute // @ebony_bennett

Show notes:

‘Dutton takes a high-risk stance on the Middle East’ by Paul Bongiorno, The Saturday Paper (October 2024)

Theme music: Pulse and Thrum; additional music by Blue Dot Sessions