The Australia Institute Feed Items

It’s official: the Reserve Bank of Australia will have its board split in two, and two new appointees will join the reconfigured monetary policy board, whose job it is to make decisions on interest rates. The move was recommended by an independent review panel in 2023. The new members of the monetary policy board, one a former top banker and the other a senior academic economist, were chosen after bipartisan consultation.

In making his announcement, the treasurer Jim Chalmers said that Marnie Baker and Renee Fry-McKibbin would balance the experience of existing members with “fresh perspectives”. That the RBA needs fresh perspectives is surely not in doubt.

The Wrap with Amy Remeikis

We have made it to the time of year when we all think that if we can just get to the end, that things are going to be better.

It makes sense – we turn over calendars, set resolutions and embrace the potential of a new year.

It’s almost like an extreme, universal experience of the doorway effect, the psychological phenomenon of short term memory loss while crossing from one boundary to another (if you have ever walked into a room to get something and then immediately forgotten why you were there, you have experienced the doorway effect).

But just as we eventually remember what we wanted from the other room, so too do we remember the unfinished business of the year before.

Opening up a new calendar is just the turning of a page. Nothing has fundamentally changed before or after that moment beyond being faced with a blank sheet. And no matter how much we may wish it, the turning of one year to another does not put a full stop on the issues we experienced in the year before.

The world is going to continue to be a complicated, sometimes horrifying, often confounding place. But with that comes the beauty and the simple moments of joy and delight, pleasant surprises and everything in between. Changing the calendar doesn’t change the world. But you, working to bring about change, does.

And so why this time of year would often mean we reflect on the wins – and there have been those – it can be more productive to look at what still needs to be done.

The letter – published in Australian newspapers today – points out the hypocrisy of successive Australian leaders, who have made promises about climate action to the faces of Pacific leaders but do the opposite when they return to Australia.

The letter points out some stark facts about how Australia is a terrible neighbour to its Pacific family.

Key points of the open letter:

• Australia’s fossil fuel project approvals undermine the survival and security of Pacific Island communities.
• In September, Australia approved three coal mines which will create 1.4 billion tonnes of emissions, equivalent to the combined emissions from 12 Pacific Island nations for over 250 years.
• In December, Australia refused to reconsider three more coal mines, paving the way for their approval, which could add a further 850 million tonnes of emissions.
• Australia’s actions do not match its commitments to its Pacific neighbours and are contrary to its support as signatory to various Pacific Island Forum Leaders’ communiques.

“Pacific Island nations are already feeling the impact of climate change, with rising sea levels threatening their very existence,” said Leanne Minshull, Strategic Director at The Australia Institute.

“Intense cyclones, king tides and droughts are putting their coast lines, food chains and water supplies in danger.

“Prime Minister Albanese constantly refers to our ‘Pacific family’, travelling the Pacific and ensuring leaders he’s committed to climate change action.

The people of Australia collectively own all the resources under the ground. This means that the coal in NSW is the property of the Australian people too.

Because of this, mining companies have to pay the NSW Government a “royalty” if they want to dig up and sell coal.

Royalties are not taxes. They are a payment for a resource. Just like a builder has to pay for the bricks used to make a house and pay tax when they sell the house, mining companies have to pay royalties for coal and then pay tax once they sell it.

If NSW were a country, it would be the third-largest exporter of coal in the world, smaller only than Queensland and Indonesia. With all that coal production, the mining industry and politicians frequently claim that coal royalties are large enough pay for services like schools, hospitals, teachers and nurses.

Here’s one quote from former NSW Deputy Premier John Barilaro:

“[Coal] is the state’s largest export commodity, and is a major source of revenue, which the NSW Government uses to help fund essential services and infrastructure such as schools, hospitals, roads and transport.”

But do royalties really fund all these things?

The short answer is no.

Japan and Australia enjoy a long-standing relationship when it comes to energy trade. According to Japan, “(t)he energy and resources sector is the bedrock of the Japan-Australia economic partnership”. But the two countries’ efforts to decarbonise their economies to reach their respective emissions reduction targets have been threatening to jeopardise this gas-fuelled obsession. Japan has been lobbying hard against any change to fossil fuel regulation in Australia. Now, under the guise of Japan’s Asia Zero Emission Community (AZEC), Japan and Australia have found a new way to keep the relationship going.

On paper, AZEC serves as a platform to support achieving net-zero emissions across the Asia-Pacific region. AZEC allows its 11 partner countries to benefit from Japanese funding for energy projects. Through AZEC, Japan aims to lead the energy transition across Asia. Research by Zero Carbon Analytics shows that, since AZEC was launched in March 2023, 158 project agreements have been signed across the Asia Pacific. Prime Minister Albanese took part via video message in the inaugural AZEC leaders’ summit in December 2023.

In late November, at the start of Parliament’s last – and busiest – sitting week, the Australia Institute and community organisation Grow it Local launched a report showing that Australians simply love growing food.

Our organisations partnered to conduct a national survey on Australians’ food growing habits and attitudes towards food waste. The results show that a whopping 45% of Australians—around 9 million people—are growing food at home, and even more are interested in starting edible gardening. And it’s not just a passing trend: a decade ago, the Australia Institute conducted a similar survey which found that one in two Australian households were growing food – to produce healthier food, to save money, and simply because they enjoy it. These results show that growing food is a lifestyle choice driven by the desire for healthier food, to save money, and to live more sustainably.

The Albanese government’s attempt to rush through major changes to Australian elections has been delayed in the Senate – at least until February, perhaps forever.

As Australia Institute research identified serious flaws, risks and loopholes in the legislation, delay is welcome – but bittersweet, because electoral reform is needed to increase confidence in politics and democracy.

Good electoral reform would include transparency around political contributions, especially “cash- for-access” payments from vested interests to get exclusive access to politicians; truth-in-political-advertising laws to prevent political players from misleading the public; and upper limits on billionaire and corporate spending on political campaigns.

But the government proposed changes that are flawed in process and substance. Though Special Minister of State Don Farrell has had almost three years to prepare the bill, the 200-plus page behemoth was presented to Parliament with just days for consideration.

The research will be sent to the NSW Treasury, as a pre-budget submission ahead of the 2025-2026 state budget. Submissions close today.

Key points:

• Coal royalties have averaged only 2.4% of NSW Government revenue over the last decade.
• In 2023–24, coal royalties were 4.2% of total NSW Government revenue, with global coal prices pushed up by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
• All coal resources in NSW are publicly owned, and royalties are the price that mining companies pay the public to extract the resource.
• Royalties do not fund specific programs — they are grouped with the rest of government revenue. This means that over the last decade, coal royalties have funded only 2.4% of every teacher or nurse.
• No money has yet been spent from the Royalties for Rejuvenation Fund, the NSW Government program which theoretically redirects royalties back to coal-producing regions.

“Coal companies and politicians keep telling us that coal royalties are huge, and that they fund schools, hospitals, and regional communities all across the state. This report shows that these claims simply aren’t true,” said Rod Campbell, Research Director at The Australia Institute.

“Coal royalties fund a tiny proportion of every school, hospital or regional community. They are not propping up the economy.

“The NSW public owns coal resources, but they aren’t getting their fair share of coal mining revenue. The real money is flowing into the pockets of big corporations.

How is Australia’s system unfair?

If you get caught speeding in Australia, you will be fined with a flat-rate traffic fine. Exceeding the speed limit by 12km/h in New South Wales earns you a $361 fine, whether you are on government benefits or a billionaire. This is not a fair system.

What about the principle: same offence, same price?

If you earn $50,000 a year, a $361 fine is equal to more than a third of your weekly salary. If you earn $200,000, it is less than 1% of your weekly salary.

So, while a speeding fine is nothing more than annoying to a wealthier person, someone on a low-income might have to choose between paying the fine and a medical bill or food.

A minor fine left unpaid can lead to a vicious circle of accrued debts, leading to a loss of licence and further loss of income. In some cases, it can even lead to jail time. Unpaid fines are in fact one of the top concerns for people seeking legal aid.

Australia Institute research shows that a proportional traffic fine system, as is in place in Finland, would be much fairer. In practice, the Finnish system calculates a fine based on the driver’s disposable income and whether they have dependents. Same offence, same proportion of income.

It comes just one day after the approval of a 50 year extension to Australia’s largest fossil gas export plant – Woodside’s North West Shelf facility.

“These are fake numbers so the major parties can have a fake fight about fake climate policies,” said Rod Campbell, Research Director at The Australia Institute.

“The modelling released includes zero discussion of nuclear waste or the costs of decommissioning nuclear generation.

“Nuclear energy is not suitable for Australia’s energy market because it is expensive to build, can’t turn up or down quickly and the obvious nuclear waste problems.

“These issues are why no energy companies want to build nuclear in Australia, and key customers like aluminium smelters don’t want nuclear to be built for them.

“This is all a distraction to prolong fossil fuel use and exports.

“Just yesterday, a 50 year extension to Woodside’s enormous gas export facility was approved but it is barely covered because political leaders would rather talk about reactors that will never be built.

“Australia needs to get on with the job of cleaning up our industries using technologies that work – renewable energy.”

The post Nuclear costings are a distraction appeared first on The Australia Institute.

The NT’s Great Give-Away

Gas exports worth $37 billion went out of Darwin over the last four years. $0 was paid to NT or Australian public, who owned most of this gas. The Commonwealth’s Petroleum Resource Rent Tax (PRRT) raises $0 tax yearly from NT gas exporters, due to its widely acknowledged flaws.

All the gas exported from NT was given away for free as the Commonwealth Government did not charge royalties or PRRT on it. It’s time for the community interest to be put ahead of gas companies.

Territorians get virtually no revenue from gas. In fact, NT drivers pay 32 times more in vehicle registration than the gas industry pays in royalties.

Four things you need to know

1. The gas industry are ‘systemic non-payers of tax

The ATO has gone as far as describing the gas industry as “systemic nonpayers of tax“. Ordinary Australian workers including teachers, nurses and retail workers all pay more tax than the gas industry. Young Australians pay more in HECS than the oil and gas industry pays in PRRT.

Why are economists are so bad at predicting what’ll happen in the economy? Why is HECS indexed? And why do we measure labour as a cost but profit as a universal good? On the final episode of Dollars & Sense for the year, Greg and Elinor answer your questions about the economy.

This discussion was recorded on Thursday 12 December 2024 and things may have changed since recording.

Order What’s the Big Idea? 32 Big Ideas for a Better Australia now, via the Australia Institute website.

Host: Greg Jericho, Chief Economist, the Australia Institute and Centre for Future Work // @grogsgamut

Host: Elinor Johnston-Leek, Senior Content Producer, the Australia Institute // @elinorjohnstonleek

Show notes:

‘Politicians love talking about ‘middle Australia’. But beware of this misleading metric’ by Greg Jericho, Guardian Australia (December 2024)

WA’s Great Gas Giveaway

Gas companies made $56 billion in 2022-23 exporting liquified natural gas out of WA. They paid $0 in Petroleum Resource Rent Tax (PRRT). And most of the companies paid $0 in royalties.

How can WA be running short of gas? 90% of the gas produced in WA is either exported or used by the LNG industry itself to process gas.

The LNG export industry consumes:

• 32x more gas than WA’s electricity generators.
• 30x more gas than WA’s mining industry.
• 8x more gas than the rest of the WA economy and community combined.

Four things you need to know

1. Royalties – most of the gas industry in WA pays no royalties

The LNG industry is 83% foreign owned, so most profits go overseas. Royalties from the gas industry are not significant in WA. Unlike the mining industry, most of the gas industry in WA pays no royalties at all. WA drivers pay more in vehicle registration than the gas industry pays in royalties.

This is because most gas is extracted from Commonwealth waters and the Commonwealth Government chooses not to charge royalties. Australia Institute research shows that $111 billion worth of LNG was produced from royalty-free gas and exported out of WA over the last four years. This gas was effectively given to multinational companies for free.

The best story of the economy over the past 3 years has been the resilience of the labour market – and with it the total destruction of the view that unemployment below 4.5% is unstainable.

We really need to just stop and marvel at the current situation. For most people, an unemployment rate with a 3 in front during their working life was akin to a sighting of the Yeti. In the past 600 months since December 1974, Australia’s unemployment rate has been below 4% only 24 times – and every month has been in the past 3 years.

This was not expected.

Coming out to the pandemic and the enforced lockdowns both within Australia and of migration from overseas, a common belief was that Australia’s low unemployment was due to a lack of labour supply, and thus in effect the rate was artificially low. And yet despite strong migration growth over the past 18 months, unemployment has remained low – surely delivering a massive body blow to those who espouse the lump of labour fallacy that somehow a job gained by a migrant is one taken from a local worker.

But more surprising is that despite the Reserve Bank raising interest rates 13 times since May 2022, the unemployment rate in that time has risen only from 3.6% to the current rate in November of 3.9%.

The Reserve Bank has been trying to raise unemployment to a level of around 4.5% because it believes that is the level at which unemployment needs to be to keep wage growth steady and inflation below 3%.

The Western Australian government has approved a 46-year extension of Woodside’s vintage North West Shelf gas export terminal despite its disastrous impacts on the world’s climate, energy prices for WA households and businesses and the priceless Murujuga cultural heritage site.

Key impacts:

• 4.3 billion tonnes of emissions, the equivalent of 24 coal power stations with equivalent annual emissions of WA’s largest coal power station, Muja.
• Ongoing corrosion of the priceless petroglyphs at the World Heritage nominated Murujuga rock art site from acid gas emissions.
• Drive up energy prices for Western Australian households and businesses.

Woodside’s North West Shelf exports more than twice the amount of gas used by Western Australians, and is increasingly turning to WA’s domestic gas reserves to feed it as its offshore fields run out, with serious consequences for WA’s gas supply and energy prices.

Recently published Australia Institute analysis shows Woodside’s exports of WA’s domestic gas reserves have already led to a tripling of wholesale gas and electricity prices, and the extension will lock in those increases for decades.

How much is the current payment?

Payments depend on factors such as age, income, and family situation. A single person with no children is paid around $389 per week, which is less than $56 per day. Some supplementary payments are available including for renters and parents.

How is Jobseeker inadequate?

A huge number of individuals and families receiving Jobseeker experience poverty. Poverty can be measured in different ways, but all poverty metrics consistently show Jobseeker’s inadequacy. According to one analysis, three in five households relying on Jobseeker are in poverty.

Exports and prices

Gas production in Australia has tripled since 2010, but domestic consumption has barely changed. This means that around 80% of gas produced in Australia is exported.

Gas export terminals opened at Gladstone in Queensland in late 2014. This meant that for the first time, gas could be exported from Australia’s east coast, giving gas companies the option to sell Australian gas into higher-priced Asian markets. This, in turn, meant that Australians suddenly had to pay world prices for domestically-produced gas.

Suddenly, Australian wholesale prices tripled from $3 per gigajoule (GJ) to $10 per GJ, and often rose even higher.

Tax is good

This graph shows the 38 economies in the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) in order of tax revenues as a percentage of their economy (GDP). Only eight have lower tax to GDP ratios than Australia, and these include relatively low-income countries like Türkiye and Mexico, as well as tax havens like Switzerland and Ireland.

If Australia were to increase the level of revenue it collects from taxation to the OECD average—a level similar to that collected by Canada or New Zealand—the Commonwealth would have had an extra $140bn in revenue in 2023–24.

This figure is 20% of the Federal Budget. It is also equivalent to the combined cost of the Aged Pension, the NDIS, Jobseeker, and Child Care Subsidy, along with the total government spending on housing, vocational education, and both the ABC and SBS.

Less tax means less social services…

Because of its low revenue, Australia spends less on social services than most OECD countries.

What are the current rules on truth in political advertising?

Pharmaceutical companies cannot claim to have the cure for cancer. Food companies cannot claim that sugary foods are good for kids. Lawyers cannot say that they will win every case. But under the Electoral Act, politicians can lie about their opponents’ policies—or about their own.

For decades, politicians have argued that it is too difficult to regulate political communication—and, admittedly, some attempts have failed. But a model that has been working quietly in South Australia for almost four decades provides a way forward.

If the Government and Parliament are serious about addressing misinformation and improving debate, they could pass truth in political ad laws in time for the next election.

Truth in political advertising laws work in South Australia and the ACT

South Australia has had truth in political advertising laws for almost forty years. The ACT has had similar laws since 2020; the first election with those laws in effect will occur in late 2024.

How do these laws work?

Section 113 of SA’s Electoral Act 1985 makes it an offence to authorise or cause to be published electoral advertisements that are materially inaccurate and misleading, with similar wording in the ACT. These laws are overseen by the relevant electoral commission. The Electoral Commission of South Australia only needs about five staff to handle all election complaints. This is a tiny fraction of the thousands of people needed to run an election.

How do profits drive inflation?

From December 2019 to June 2023, inflation in Australia rose faster than it has in 30 years. Over this time, the share of national income going to corporate profits also increased substantially.

At the same time, the share going to wages and small businesses declined.

The profits made by large corporations during this time are huge: some $100 billion over and above their pre-pandemic profit margins.

According to Australia Institute research, these rising profits made up more than half of the inflation above the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)’s target range of 2% to 3%.

The link between profits and inflation in Australia was replicated in research by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), headed by former Liberal Finance Minister Mathias Cormann.

On this episode of Follow the Money, acclaimed financial journalist Alan Kohler joins Ebony Bennett to discuss the policies that created Australia’s housing crisis and what governments can do to fix it.

This discussion was recorded on Tuesday 10 December 2024 and things may have changed since recording.

Order What’s the Big Idea? 32 Big Ideas for a Better Australia now, via the Australia Institute website.

Guest: Alan Kohler, author and journalist // @AlanKohler

Host: Ebony Bennett, Deputy Director, the Australia Institute // @ebonybennett

Show notes:

The Great Divide: Australia’s Housing Mess and How to Fix It by Alan Kohler (October 2024)

Theme music: Pulse and Thrum; additional music by Blue Dot Sessions

The declining major party vote

Fewer Australians give their first preference to a major party. The 2007 federal election is the last at which both Labor and the Liberal-National Coalition won more than 40% of the national vote; the 2022 election was the first time that neither cracked 40%.

The share of Australians voting outside of the major parties has increased from single digits in the 1970s to 31% at the most recent election in 2022, almost as many as the 36% who voted for the Coalition and 33% who voted for Labor. Not since the Great Depression has the combined vote for the two largest parties been so low.

The effect of a lower primary vote for major parties is that minor parties and independents have a better chance of winning seats.

“An Albanese Labor government will restore Australia’s climate leadership, and listen and act on Pacific island warnings of the existential threat of climate change.”

Despite a clear election campaign commitment to listen to Pacific Island nations and act on climate change, the Australian government continues to enable and encourage new and expanded fossil fuel projects.

When it comes to climate change, Australia’s actions matter. Accelerated by Australia’s continued supply of fossil fuels, climate change poses a serious, direct and immediate threat to human and environmental security.

In the Pacific and the Torres Strait, rising sea levels caused by climate change threaten to inundate entire islands.
Australia has a long and shared history with Pacific island countries and has co-signed legally binding international treaties and agreements, such as the Paris Agreement and the Boe Declaration, pledging action on climate change.

The Labor Party’s election campaign in 2022 boasted climate commitments and intentions to restore Australia’s relationships and reputation with our Pacific “brothers and sisters”.

The extraordinary analysis reveals more than a third of what Australians hand over to energy giants AGL and Origin for electricity is pure profit for the companies.

The research – which crunches the companies’ own data – reveals $755 of what an average AGL electricity customer forks out each year goes directly to profit for the company, which made more than a billion dollars last year.

Origin electricity customers pump $595 a year into the company’s annual profit, which was more than $2 billion last year.

It’s a similar story with gas. The average Origin customer pours $417.57 into the company’s annual profit. $414.04 of what an average AGL gas customer hands over each year is pure profit for the company.

The discussion paper, by The Australia Institute’s Senior Research Fellow David Richardson, also reveals that households are massively subsidising the bills of big businesses, with consumers paying more than double what businesses pay for a megawatt hour of electricity or gigajoule of gas.

Key findings:

Author and former speechwriter Don Watson joins Dr Emma Shortis on After America to discuss what Trump’s re-emergence reveals about the United States and how Australia might respond differently to a second Trump administration.

This discussion was recorded on Monday 9 December 2024 and things may have changed since recording.

Order What’s the Big Idea? 32 Big Ideas for a Better Australia now, via the Australia Institute website.

Guest: Don Watson, author of ‘High Noon: Trump, Harris and America on the Brink’

Host: Emma Shortis, Director, International & Security Affairs, the Australia Institute // @EmmaShortis

Show notes:

Donald Trump’s Meet the Press interview (December 2024)

‘High Noon: Trump, Harris and America on the Brink’ by Don Watson, Quarterly Essay (September 2024)

‘The Second Coming’ by Fintan O’Toole, NY Review of Books (December 2024)

Theme music: Blue Dot Sessions

The Reserve Bank of Australia had a great opportunity to give Australians – and the nation’s sluggish economy – something both desperately needed before Christmas.

But, once again, the RBA has failed.

By leaving interest rates on hold at 4.35%, the Reserve Bank has failed to do what is right for Australians.

It has failed to do what is right for the economy.

And it has failed to learn from its own mistakes.

Australians have suffered unnecessarily for too long. Cutting interest rates would have eased that suffering. Cutting interest rates would have provided some sensible stimulus to an economy which has almost ground to a halt.

“The RBA’s interest rate settings have smashed households and smashed businesses,” said Greg Jericho, Chief Economist at The Australia Institute.

“Headline inflation is within the bank’s target band. What is it waiting for?

“Last year’s review of the Reserve Bank criticised it for keeping rates on hold for 30 meetings in a row, when a rate cut would have stimulated a stagnating economy. It’s happening again.

“An interest rate cut today would not have been an act of Christmas goodwill. It would have been an act of common sense.

“Now, thanks to the RBA, many Australian families face an unnecessarily bleak Christmas.”

Last year, scientists warned that the Maugean skate – a stingray-like marine animal dating back to the dinosaur era – was heading for extinction.

The Minister is now considering two separate reviews which will decide whether the skate survives – or becomes extinct.

The reason the skate is facing extinction is because, in 2012, the salmon industry was allowed to undertake a massive expansion of fish farms in Macquarie Harbour, the Maugean skate’s only habitat. One third of the Harbour is part of the Tasmania’s Wilderness World Heritage Area and the skate is one of its natural values.

Pollution from these large, foreign-owned fish farms has led to severely depleted oxygen levels in the harbour’s waters.

Now, the powerful salmon lobby – grossly exaggerating its importance to the local economy – wants to be exempt from environmental laws.

A newspaper advertisement promoting the petition states: “The salmon industry in Tasmania is owned by three foreign corporations, including JBS, which has been convicted of corruption. None of their salmon farms have paid company tax in Australia since 2019 according to Australian Tax Office data.”

“Australians are not stupid. They are starting to see through the lies and spin of these powerful multinational corporations,” said Eloise Carr, Director, The Australia Institute Tasmania.

“Now we need Australians to ensure their politicians don’t fall for the misinformation being spread by these corporations pillaging Australian waters.

This week, Environment Minister Tanya Plibersek decided not to reconsider the environmental impacts of three coal mines, mines that are almost big enough to swallow Sydney whole.

Owned by BHP, Mitsubishi and other multinational corporations, these mines will impact koalas, gliders and many other threatened species.

Minister Plibersek’s decision was not surprising.

The Environment Council of Central Queensland had previously asked her to reconsider other coal mines. She reconsidered … and then approved the mines anyway.

That decision set up the embarrassing situation of Australia’s Environment Minister fighting in court to approve coal mines, alongside mining companies against environment groups.

To be clear, when the Environment Minister had to choose a side – coal companies or the environment – she chose coal companies.

And there’s plenty more in the coal companies’ stockings.

Research out this week from The Australia Institute shows that the NSW government spends five times more money promoting coal than it has budgeted for helping mining communities’ transition away from coal.

The state’s four regional “Future Jobs and Investment Authorities” are supposed to “support communities reliant on the coal industry to secure their long-term economic future as the global demand for coal declines over time”.

These authorities have a combined initial budget of just $5.2 million and a promise of more money in 2028.

Instead of learning from the review they seem determined to repeat it. Meanwhile Australians suffer from an economy with higher interest payments, higher unemployment and more people struggling.

Before they make their decision on interest rates on Tuesday, the Reserve Bank board should read the RBA review, particularly where it criticised them for not reducing interest rates from 2016 to 2019. Back then, inflation was outside the RBA’s target band of 2% to 3% but, unlike today, it was not too high but too low. Inflation was less than 2% for almost that entire period.

Given the high rates of inflation over the last two and half years you might think, what’s the problem with low inflation? Isn’t inflation bad?

While high inflation can cause problems, so does low inflation. Low inflation means the economy is stagnating. It is a sign that it is not growing as fast as it could and because of that unemployment is higher than it needs to be. The correct monetary policy response to inflation being below the target band is to cut interest rates and stimulate the economy.

But back in 2016, rather than cut, the RBA kept rates on hold for a record 30 consecutive meetings. The longest period in RBA history. The review was scathing, saying this was responsible for approximately 270,000 additional people being out of work for a year.

So why didn’t the RBA cut rates?

It’s because they keep getting the link between unemployment and inflation wrong.

New polling from The Australia Institute reveals that although Aussies love giving gifts, much of what we buy will spend years in the back of a cupboard and, ultimately, end up in landfill.

So, while it might be a season of joy, it’s also the season of waste, which is bad for the environment and bad for the hip pocket.

The Australia Institute surveyed 1,009 Australians between 13 and 15 November 2024 on issues relating to gift giving, consumption and spending habits during Christmas time. The margin of error is ±3%.

Key Findings:

Australians waste more than $1 billion on buying Christmas gifts for people that don’t get used.

Nearly one in two Australians (47%) do not think about how the gifts they buy for others will eventually be disposed of.

Over three in four Australians (77%) like buying gifts for people at Christmas, but over half of Australians (52%) would prefer it if people did not buy them gifts at Christmas.

A greater number of Australians buy gift wrapping paper (69%) than gift bags (52%). However, gift bags are more likely to be reused (65% of those who use gift bags reuse them) than wrapping paper (24% of those who use wrapping paper reuse it).

Nearly two in three Australians (64%) agree that it is better for the economy when people buy fewer things that don’t get used.

Salmon companies are ripping off Tasmania and trying to pass it off as yet another ‘jobs vs environment’ fight. This is the kind of fight that Tasmanian politicians love to have, and like performing seals, the Tasmanian government and opposition have lined up to bark and do their tricks.

But the fight over salmon farming is different. All three major companies are owned by multinational corporations. Tassal is owned by a major Canadian company and Petuna is owned by a Japanese-New Zealand corporation. The third main salmon company in Tasmania, Huon, is owned by JBS. JBS is a Brazilian corporation infamous for corruption. JBS’s bribery of Brazilian politicians played a big part in its expansion and its arrival in Tasmania.

These corporations literally want Tasmanians to accept their crap.

To be more precise, the poo and other discharge from salmon farms in Macquarie Harbour generates the same amount of nitrogen pollution as sewage discharged by a city of half a million people – that’s more than double Hobart’s.

Dumping the equivalent of two Hobart’s worth of sewage in a World Heritage-listed harbour has consequences. And the best-known is the impact on the Maugean skate, a stingray-like creature that has been around since the dinosaurs and lives nowhere else in the world.

Extinction bells have been tolling for some time for the skate. Scientific advice to the Australian Government is unequivocal that salmon farming is the key threat to its survival.

The representative of the three large, foreign-owned salmon farmers in the Apple Isle has made many claims about the economic impact of moving fish farms out of Macquarie Harbour. The research behind those claims remains secret.

The Australia Institute challenges those making unsubstantiated claims to a debate about what needs to be done in Macquarie Harbour.

“It’s time to start calling out the lies, exaggeration and misinformation,” said Eloise Carr, Director, Australia Institute Tasmania.

“It’s factually incorrect to describe the industry in Macquarie Harbour as ‘small.’ Currently, 9,500 tonnes of salmon and trout come out of the harbour annually. The amount of nitrogen pollution this contribute to the harbour is the same as the sewage discharged from a city the size of Hobart.

“Dumping the equivalent of Hobart’s worth of sewage in a World Heritage-listed harbour has consequences. And the best-known is the impact on the endangered Maugean skate, a stingray-like creature that has been around since the dinosaurs and lives nowhere else in the world.

“The science could not be clearer: fish farming is the primary threat to the skate. That’s what Australia’s top scientists are telling us.

The Wrap with Amy Remeikis

Truth and trust can be funny things.

Holding someone’s trust means people believe what you say to be true. Speaking the truth consistently wins people’s trust.

But trust isn’t always treated with the deference it should be.  Too often it can be abused, with truth usually the first to pay the price.

There were a few instances this week which had us thinking about trust and the role it plays in dictating what is true or not.

One was the somewhat slavish and uncritical reporting of the Business Council of Australia’s ‘Regulation Rumble’  report which loudly declared Victoria the “worst state in Australia to do business”.

Headlines across Australia’s media outlets swallowed the conclusions: ‘Victoria ranks last for business amid state spending splurge’, ‘Victoria ranked worst state in Australia for business’ and ‘Victoria ranked worst for business as Labor debates brand damage in Albanese stronghold’ were just some of the headlines. And not just at News Corp – that last one was the ABC.

To the casual observer, it seems that media outlets are faithfully reporting on an independent report. But a cursory glance at the ABS data on business investment – you know, the raw numbers of where private business is putting its money – showed investment in Victoria was outstripping nearly every other state.

On this episode of Dollars & Sense, Greg and Elinor discuss the latest GDP figures and why the Australian economy is in the toilet.

This discussion was recorded on Thursday 5 December 2024 and things may have changed since recording.

Order What’s the Big Idea? 32 Big Ideas for a Better Australia now, via the Australia Institute website.

Host: Greg Jericho, Chief Economist, the Australia Institute and Centre for Future Work // @grogsgamut

Host: Elinor Johnston-Leek, Senior Content Producer, the Australia Institute // @elinorjohnstonleek

Show notes:

‘What do the latest GDP figures tell us? That the RBA is still getting it very wrong’ by Greg Jericho, Guardian Australia (December 2024)

The report, Greenwashing Coal in New South Wales, reveals a stark contrast in funding priorities. State government organisations which are meant to be supporting communities with the transition away from coal have an initial budget of just $5.2 million, while public subsidies for coal research and promotion far exceed this amount.

Key points:

● The NSW Government’s proposed Future Jobs and Investment Authorities for the Hunter, Illawarra, Central West and North West regions aim to assist coal-reliant communities’ transition. But they are severely underfunded with a collective budget of just $5.2 million for all four authorities.

● These Authorities are not able to access increased funding from the Future Jobs and Investment Fund until 2028-29.

● Organisations devoted to promoting and prolonging the NSW coal industry, by contrast, have significantly more resources:

○ Coal Innovation NSW spent $27 million last year and has a balance of $45 million.

○ The coal industry organisation Low Emissions Technology Australia (LETA) is promoted as a $700 million fund. This fund is publicly subsidised, but recently asked to stop receiving contributions due to a significant surplus of funding.

The report calls for the abolition of Coal Innovation NSW and associated funds. It also recommends royalty deduction subsidies to LETA be immediately abolished.

How?

First, a bit of history.

Until 2020, Western Australians didn’t experience the energy price pain of their east coast cousins because all its domestic gas reserves were reserved for the domestic market. Up until then, all the gas WA exported came from offshore reserves, mostly in Commonwealth waters. That changed four years ago, when the WA Labor government allowed the export of onshore gas.

Why did the WA Labor government change the policy?

Good question.  Woodside started running out of offshore gas for its giant North West Shelf export terminal, and decided to turn to the domestic reserves to keep feeding it. But it needed some help.

Enter media magnate and fossil fuel investor Kerry Stokes and his company Beach Energy.  Beach Energy owned the licence for some of WA’s onshore gas reserves and wanted to export that domestic gas because gas sold on the international market fetches higher prices than it does domestically.

Beach Energy made a deal with Woodside to export its domestic gas.  And then it used its considerable influence to lobby the Western Australian government to let them do it.  In August 2020, while most attention was on the pandemic and the border closures, then-premier Mark McGowen announced Woodside could export WA’s domestic gas for five years – and a lot of it … the equivalent of around a quarter of the total gas used in WA!

So, what is the problem?

Woodside now wants to extend the deal for another 50 years.  And that’s terrible news for Western Australians.

On this episode of Follow the Money, Australia Institute Chief Political Analyst Amy Remeikis joins Ebony Bennett to discuss the slings and arrows of the political year, why Australia doesn’t use its power on the international stage, and how next year’s federal election campaign is shaping up.

This discussion was recorded on Tuesday 3 December 2024 and things may have changed since recording.

Order What’s the Big Idea? 32 Big Ideas for a Better Australia now, via the Australia Institute website.

Guest: Amy Remeikis, Chief Political Analyst // @amyremeikis

Host: Ebony Bennett, Deputy Director, the Australia Institute // @ebonybennett

Show notes:

Paul Fletcher – Why Majority Government is in the National Interest, and the Teals are not, The Sydney Institute (December 2024)

Theme music: Pulse and Thrum; additional music by Blue Dot Sessions

There are lots of ways to protect workers in Tasmania, but there is only one way to protect the critically endangered Maugean skate. The skate has been around since the time of the dinosaurs. It has just one home – Macquarie Harbour. It’s globally unique – the only known brackish water skate in the world. It’s recognised internationally as one of the natural values of the Tasmanian Wilderness World Heritage Area.

Minister Plibersek says she will listen to the science and follow the law. Australian government scientists are unequivocal that salmon farming is the key threat to the skate’s survival. Top Australian independent scientists have confirmed this. Scientists have also told us how to save the skate: stop salmon farming.

“Is anyone other than the AWU seriously suggesting we should not listen to science and not follow the law?” said Eloise Carr, Director, Australia Institute Tasmania.

“But, of course, if they want to do what the AWU says – as the elected government – that’s obviously their choice to make.

“Democracy is about choices. We used to hunt whales, log the Daintree and mine asbestos and all those industries created some jobs.

“There are lots of places where salmon can be grown but only one place in the world where the Maugean skate can live. If we chose a bit more salmon over the last of the dinosaur fish, then it speaks volumes about our priories.”

The Albanese government wants to pass major changes to national electoral laws with the help of the opposition.

On the cards are tens of millions in taxpayer funding for the major parties, donation caps, and limits on campaign spending – though the rules are much stricter for independent challengers than for major party MPs. They are the biggest changes to Australian democracy in decades – and Australians saw the legislation only last Monday.

The Albanese government is also rushing a social media age ban. It did graciously allow a parliamentary inquiry for this one. Don’t bother writing something – it gave only 24 hours for submissions, and “would appreciate” nothing more than two pages long.

But South Australia takes the cake for pushing new laws through before anyone has time to react.

Two weeks ago, Premier Peter Malinauskas announced Labor, Liberal, Greens and One Nation parliamentarians all supported his legislation to massively increase the amount of public money going to political parties and MPs while simultaneously banning most political donations. The bill will deliver political parties millions of dollars in extra funding while putting limits on newcomers’ fundraising.

Only once the bill was introduced to the Legislative Council did cracks appear; it was described as “rushed”, “a bit of a leap of faith”, an “election vanity project” and compared to the movie Sophie’s choice.

Today the Business Council of Australia released its “Regulation Rumble 2024 report” which ranked Victoria as the worst state to do business. And yet when we examine the actual business investment figures from the Bureau of Statistics, it is clear private business investment in Victoria is actually growing more strongly in that state than almost anywhere else in Australia.

The discrepancy between what the BCA argues and what the data says is due to the reasons behind the BCA’s report. Notionally the report is designed to rank the states in order of places to do business. In reality, it is designed to pressure state governments to reduce taxes and regulations in order to increase the profits of companies.

This is made clear by the criteria – the BCA noted that it “examined planning systems, payroll taxes, property taxes and charges, retail trading hours, workers compensation premiums and licences to do business”. That is, anything that costs businesses is bad regardless of the impact it might have on the community through perhaps better services funded by state revenue.  It concluded that South Australia was the best place to do business and that “this was largely driven by it having lower payroll taxes, lower property charges and less voluminous business licensing.”

The BCA has a very clever media strategy, and its report got wide coverage.

On this episode of After America, Zoe Daniel MP, Independent Member for Goldstein and former foreign correspondent, joins Dr Emma Shortis to talk about the incoming Trump administration, Australia’s relationships with the United States and China, and the role of independent politicians in Australian defence and foreign policy-making.

This discussion was recorded on Thursday 28 November and things may have changed since recording.

Order What’s the Big Idea? 32 Big Ideas for a Better Australia now, via the Australia Institute website.

Guest: The Hon Zoe Daniel MP, Independent Member for Goldstein // @zoedaniel

Host: Emma Shortis, Director of International & Security Affairs, the Australia Institute // @EmmaShortis

Show notes:

Greetings from Trumpland: How an unprecedented presidency changed everything by Zoe Daniel and Roscoe Whalan (March 2021)

Theme music: Blue Dot Sessions

Tasmanian parliamentary pay frozen

Tasmanian MPs’ rate of pay has been frozen since 2018. Before then the base salary of Tasmanian members of parliament increased annually. It was last increased in July 2018 to $140,185 per year.

Figure 1: Members of parliament base rate of pay 1996-97 to 2023-24

The Vulnerability to Extreme Heat report identifies locations across Australia which have a high likelihood of experiencing extreme heat and a high concentration of people who are vulnerable because of illness, age and/or income level.

It finds that wealthy, coastal areas of major cities are generally less vulnerable to extreme heat than inland suburbs, and that rural areas are generally more vulnerable than urban areas.

Extreme heat is the number one cause of weather-related illness and death in all parts of Australia, except Tasmania, and Australians on low incomes who are older and/or have a long-term health issue are more vulnerable to the effects of extreme heat.

Doctors for the Environment Australia say the research is a vital tool which will help governments to save lives.

At the moment numerous media outlets are attempting to make the case that the Victorian government’s finances are in a parlous state.  The Financial Review for example has editorialised “Allan and Pallas in denial about Victoria’s state of decline”, while The Age stated as though it was an uncontested fact that “The state’s finances are heading towards a cliff.”

The media like to point to Victoria’s debt and deficit but they do so by including government fixed capital investment in the deficit. This might seem to the layperson as perfectly reasonable, but it is not how accounting works in the private sector and it presents a distorted picture of the state of the budget.

Including capital investment in a similar manner would, for example, see BHP’s 2024 profit drop from its declared US$20.7 billion to a marginal US$0.2 billion. Many other profitable companies would be in deficit were their budgets measured in the same way that now has the media suggesting the Victorian state finances are in deep trouble.

In 2022-23 (the latest year of ABS data), Victoria’s general government sector actually made a profit (net cash flow from operating activities) of $4.0 billion. Victoria’s budget papers also show a $1.4 billion surplus from operating activities in 2023-24.

On this episode of Dollars & Sense, Greg and Elinor discuss Trump’s wild new tariff announcement and the end of the standoff between Labor and the Greens over housing.

This discussion was recorded on Wednesday 27 November 2024 and things may have changed since recording.

Pre-order What’s the Big Idea? 32 Big Ideas for a Better Australia now, via the Australia Institute website.

Host: Greg Jericho, Chief Economist, the Australia Institute and Centre for Future Work // @grogsgamut

Host: Elinor Johnston-Leek, Senior Content Producer, the Australia Institute // @elinorjohnstonleek

Show notes:

‘Welcome to Trump’s trade war – where no one wins because everyone just pays more for things’ by Greg Jericho, Guardian Australia (November 2024)

Theme music: Blue Dot Sessions

For years politicians have been rolling out policies they claim will make housing more affordable. And for years housing affordability has continued to get worse. Housing needs to become cheaper and instead it is becoming more expensive.

You might expect that our politicians would be concerned by the fact that all their policies fail. Instead, the government rammed two new housing affordability bills through the parliament yesterday which are more of the same.

The best you can say about the government’s two new policies is that they will have no impact on the housing market.

The list of policies that both sides of politics have claimed will fix the problem is long. First home buyer grants, government support for social and affordable housing, first home buyers accessing super to buy a home, plus many, many more.

All the while anger is growing as house prices keep rising.

There are two things you can do to make something cheaper. You can increase supply or decrease demand. Or both. If there is a bumper crop of apples (more supply), then the price of apples goes down. When fewer people wanted to buy DVDs (less demand) the price of DVDs went down.

The first problem is many of these policies don’t increase supply or decrease demand. In fact, some of them do the opposite.

The various first-home-buyer grants gave first-home buyers more money to buy a house (increase demand). They all show up the auction and bid up the price of homes making them more expensive.

Thousands of voters have signed a petition, launched by The Australia Institute, demanding a public inquiry into the Electoral Legislation Amendment (Electoral Reform) Bill.

The changes would significantly benefit Labor and the Coalition, giving them a huge financial advantage over independents and minor party candidates seeking a seat in the Australian Parliament.

The Australia Institute petition, launched just over a week ago, states:

Trust in our democracy is embedded in strong electoral laws and processes.

The Electoral Legislation Amendment (Electoral Reform) Bill risks undermining this trust by being unfair, rushed, and shrouded in secrecy.

We call on you to immediately establish a parliamentary inquiry, with public hearings, to assess the proposed changes to Australia’s electoral laws.

This must happen before major changes to Australian electoral law are put to Parliament for a vote.

The petition has attracted more than 18,000 signatures.

In the past, even small changes to our electoral system have been scrutinised by a parliamentary committee. Petitioners agree that should happen before these proposed changes are passed.

“The integrity of Australian elections is too important for the Albanese government’s proposed changes to be rushed through without scrutiny, including a thorough parliamentary inquiry,” said Bill Browne, Director of the Australia Institute’s Democracy & Accountability Program.

Endangered Maugean skate and its only home, Macquarie Harbour, are matters of national environmental significance and protected under national environmental law. One third of the harbour is World Heritage and Maugean skate, an endangered stingray-like animal, are one of the natural values of Tasmania’s Wilderness World Heritage Area.

Scientific evidence shows salmon farming operations are the primary risk and ‘almost certain’ to be ‘catastrophic’ to the skate.

The Australia Institute commissioned polling by Dynata, which surveyed a nationally representative sample of 1,009 Australians between 13 and 15 November 2024 about their attitudes towards fish farming in Macquarie Harbour where it is putting the endangered Maugean skate at risk of extinction. The margin of error is ±3%.

In a short primer on the South Australian political finance changes, The Australia Institute explains:

Key findings:

• The proposed laws have not been the subject of a Parliamentary Inquiry. These are normal for even minor changes to electoral laws, and these changes are among the largest ever in the state.
• The South Australian government conducted a secret, internal consultation; later reporting confirmed that the majority of submissions it received were opposed to the proposed laws.
• The government’s independent review recommended administrative funding be decreased, from $1.4 million a year for each major party to $1.2 million. Instead, it was increased to $1.6 million.
• This alone gives Labor and Liberal an additional $3.2 million every four years.
• The proposed laws increase major party administrative funding in South Australia by 66 times compared to 10 years ago.
• The proposed laws introduce “nominated entities” to grandfather in assets of major parties.
• There is no principled reason for the special allowance for parties with exactly two MPs; it exists only to paper over the fundamental problems with a per-MP funding model.

“Behind Premier Malinauskas’ proposed ban on most political donations is around $18 million in new taxpayer funding for political parties and candidates; the vast majority goes to the two major parties,” said Bill Browne, Director of the Australia Institute’s Democracy & Accountability Program.

The drop in Australia’s inflation has been quite sharp. The latest monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures from the Bureau of Statistics show that prices over the year to October rose just 2.1%. That is such a relatively small increase that so far form being worried about the 3% ceiling of the Reserve Banks inflation target, we’re now near the 2% bottom. Five months ago the CPI was at 4% and economists were speculating that the RBA might increase rates again.

The big reasons for the decline in price growth are that inflation across the world has slowed – and Australia is very much part of the world economy – and because the government sought to reduce prices by introducing an electricity rebate.

The drop in electricity prices has been dramatic.

In October the amount of electricity that in June last year would now have cost $100 now just cost $69.83. And while that is significant enough, had there not been the Commonwealth government rebate and the other state rebates in WA, Tasmania and Queensland, the average cost of that $100 worth of electricity would be $116.

In essence, the actions of state and federal governments have knocked 40% off the average cost of electricity bills across the county.

That is no small thing.

It serves to remind everyone that governments do actually have a vital role to play in combatting inflation.