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Are we about to see history repeat?

‘Do you ever stop and ask, ‘Is it all going to happen again?’ —Siegfried Sassoon

We live in an age that seems eerily familiar. A time of dictators, populists, organised lying, European wars, grabs for territory, ideological extremism and even antisemitism, a time when things are falling apart and the centre is struggling to hold. It has all happened before, in the 1920s and ’30s. History is sending us a warning, and unless we heed it, history will have its revenge as we repeat the disaster of the 1940s.

The world needs to learn the lessons of these decades, and fast. Dennis Glover retells the story of the interwar years in a series of lessons drawn from unfolding events and the unheeded omens of those who spoke out but were ignored.

An urgent, surprising and altogether persuasive read, Repeat: A Warning from History will open your eyes.

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Dennis Glover was educated at Monash and Cambridge universities and has made a career as one of Australia’s leading speechwriters. His first novel, The Last Man in Europe, was published around the world in multiple editions and was nominated for several literary prizes, including the Walter Scott Prize for Historical Fiction. His second novel, Factory 19, was published in 2020, and his third, Thaw, in 2023. His book-length essay An Economy Is Not A Society was published in 2015.

This is the transcript from the Hon Kevin Bell’s speech, “‘Housing and human rights”, recorded 19 September 2024 at Per Capita’s John Cain Lunch.

I thank Per Capita for inviting me to speak at the September 2024 John Cain Lunch on the important subject of housing and human rights.

I have very strong memories of John, the 41^st premier of Victoria. He was elected the member for Bundoora in 1976 and the opposition leader in 1981.  He became premier when the labour government was elected in 1982.  He held that high office for three terms of parliament until, following his resignation, he was succeeded, by Joan Kirner.  He did not contest the 1992 election, which Labor lost.  I saw him frequently in the late 1970s and the early 1980s.

Reimagines ‘the great Australian dream’ of housing as ‘the great Australian right’ to housing

Almost everyone in Australia is feeling the impact of the national housing crisis, which is traumatising individuals, families and communities. In the reconstruction period following World War II, governments ensured that access to adequate and affordable housing was virtually universal. But now, many young people and families are finding it almost impossible to buy, or even rent, a home. During the COVID years, government action took the homeless off the streets, yet homelessness is now at a record high. The fact that significant numbers of women are currently living in their cars is just one tragic example of the depths to which the entire system has sunk. We seem to be trapped in a vortex of minimal government ambition, stale non-strategic thinking and maximum profits.

Housing: the Great Australian Right argues that governments have the capacity and the power to resolve this national plight. The first step is for Australia to rethink its approach to housing policy and recognise access to housing – having a home – as a fundamental human right.

Kosmos Samaras addressed our August John Cain Lunch on the electoral challenges facing the ALP due to the changing nature of Australia’s electoral demographics. Watch the recording of the event below.

Kos is one of Australia’s leading experts in political campaigns and polling. Kos specialises in compiling and interpreting research, statistical data and polling to provide a unique insight into the cause and effects of social and political issues impacting communities across Australia.

Often sought for expert commentary on polling data and its impact on all levels of politics, Kos has a keen understanding of the nature of political parties and government decision-making, drawn from more than 25 years of political experience with Victorian Labor, including as Deputy Campaign Director. This experience has also enabled him to develop an extensive knowledge on how governments and political parties function and what drives them.

The post The Disruptors – Labor’s challenge, with Kos Samaras appeared first on Per Capita.

This week is Homelessness Week, an annual event hosted by Homelessness Australia aiming to raise awareness and build commitment towards ending homelessness. The theme of this year’s Homelessness Week is “Homelessness Action Now”. It must serve as a reminder of the urgent need to change the future state of housing and homelessness in Australia.

In recent years, several countries have responded to the global crisis of housing unaffordability by preparing whole-of-government plans to improve housing affordability and reduce or eliminate homelessness.

In July 2024, New South Wales Premier Chris Minns announced that a ban on “no-grounds” evictions would be introduced to Parliament in the following month. Under the proposed changes, landlords would have to meet “common-sense and reasonable” grounds for eviction, including the sale of the property and instances of misconduct by tenants.

What are no-grounds evictions? 

“No-grounds evictions”, also known as “no-fault evictions”, allow landlords to terminate tenancies in private rental properties without granting a specified reason for doing so, providing that notice periods are followed.  

Some jurisdictions restrict termination without grounds to the end of fixed-term agreements (tenancy agreements with a defined ‘end’ date), while Victoria has narrowed this allowance to the end of tenants’ first fixed term in a property. New South Wales, Western Australia and the Northern Territory currently allow landlords to evict tenants without specified grounds during periodic agreements (tenancies which do not have a defined end date, also known as ‘month-to-month’ agreements). These three jurisdictions also allow no-grounds evictions at the end of fixed-term agreements.  

The founder of Per Capita’s Centre of the Public Square initiative, Peter Lewis, discusses the “Civility Manifesto’, a framework for addressing the division at the heart of our broken politics.

The Civility Manifesto outlines how media, politics and the digital platforms have conspired to build a public discourse driven by conflict and anger, where truth and context are sidelined.

Peter outlines the work of the new Centre, including advocating to constrain the power of Big Tech, campaigning for privacy reform and investing in alternate models of civic engagement based on identifying points of connection and giving citizens real power.

Drawing on his work with the progressive research and strategy firm, Essential, Peter shares his work with Yes 23, the disability sector, renewable energy and the introduction of AI, to show how the tools to build a more collaborative politics already exist.

This event was recorded on 17 July 2024. Watch the recording below.

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About Peter Lewis:

The impacts of climate change keep getting worse, but the typical framing of the problem and the solutions so far being pursued are seriously insufficient. As a result, the steps we’re taking to build a clean energy economy and move beyond fossil fuels are far too incremental for the existential nature of this threat. So what’s holding us back?

Climate Clangers calls out three bad ideas that are blocking action on climate change at the speed and scale we need right now:

• Decarbonising our economy must not impact economic growth.
• Net-zero accounting can keep global heating within survivable limits.
• Strong action now will cost us more than we can afford.

Clung to by politicians and leaders of industry, and rooted in outdated and wishful thinking, each of these ideas is fundamentally wrong. With the world continuing to warm, the longer we leave these assertions unchallenged, the more dangerous they become.

In this sharp and lively analysis, Dr Jennifer Rayner makes the case for better ways to gauge the health of our clean economy, track real progress on cutting carbon pollution, and account for the gains from immediate, decisive measures. We need new ways of thinking about the life-threatening challenge of global warming so that we can get on with real climate action.

Dr Rayner spoke at our June 2024 John Cain Lunch. Watch the recording below.

Reflections on the 2024-25 Federal Budget, and directions for Australia’s future

Chair of the House Economics Committee, Daniel Mulino joined us for our May John Cain Lunch to unpack the 2024-25 federal budget. Watch the recording below.

Dr Daniel Mulino was elected as the Member for Fraser in the Australian Parliament at the 2019 Federal Election. He is an economist by training, with a PhD from Yale University. He has lectured at Monash University and worked at both the World Bank and the United States Federal Reserve.

Before entering the Australian Parliament, Daniel served the Victorian community as a member of the Victorian Parliament. He was Parliamentary Secretary to the Treasurer between 2014 and the 2018.

The post The Federal Budget, with Daniel Mulino appeared first on Per Capita.

Shaping Australia’s tax reform policymaking.

Australia’s history is sprinkled with attempts at tax reform – some successful, some not. Mixed Fortunes explores these efforts at substantive change in our tax system.

Paul Tilley takes us from the establishment of the Australian Constitution at Federation in 1901 and the 1942 unification of income tax, through the seminal Asprey review in 1975 that set up the major tax reforms of the 1980s and 1990s, and up to the lack of tax reform, at both the Commonwealth and state levels, this century. Mixed Fortunes examines the roles of foundational reviews, which establish the case for reform, and determinative reviews, which implement reform. It assesses both the political economy issues of policymaking and the quality of the tax reforms that have been achieved in Australia.

The key questions it addresses include: What makes a reform exercise work – or not? How do we assess the quality of Australia’s tax reforms? And what lessons can be drawn from these experiences to help shape future tax reform exercises?

Paul joined us for our April 2024 John Cain Lunch to discuss his book.

Watch the recording below.

Who is Peter Dutton, and what happened to the Liberal Party? In Bad Cop, Lech Blaine traces the making of a hardman – from Queensland detective to leader of the Opposition, from property investor to minister for Home Affairs. This is a story of ambition, race and power, and a politician with a plan.

Dutton became Liberal leader with a strategy to win outer-suburban and regional seats from Labor. Since then we have seen his demolition of the Voice and a rolling campaign of culture wars. What does Peter Dutton know about the Australian electorate? Has he updated Menzies’ Forgotten People pitch for the age of anxiety, or will he collapse the Liberals’ broad church? This revelatory portrait is sardonic, perceptive and altogether compelling.

Lech Blaine joined Per Capita’s Emma Dawson to discuss this Quarterly Essay.