Federal Reserve Bank of New York Feed Items

Michael J. Fleming

In 2025, the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates, trade policy has shifted abruptly, and economic policy uncertainty has increased. How have these developments affected the functioning of the key U.S. Treasury securities market? In this post, we return to some familiar metrics to assess the recent behavior of Treasury market liquidity. We find that liquidity briefly worsened around the April 2025 tariff announcements but that its relation to Treasury volatility has been similar to what it was in the past.

Beverly Hirtle and Matthew C. Plosser

Matteo Crosignani, Thomas Eisenbach, and Fulvia Fringuellotti

As in previous years, we provide in this post an update on the vulnerability of the U.S. banking system based on four analytical models that capture different aspects of this vulnerability. We use data through 2025:Q2 for our analysis, and also discuss how the vulnerability measures have changed since our last update one year ago.

Tomas Jankauskas, Ugo Albertazzi, Lorenzo Burlon, and Nicola Pavanini

Natalia Emanuel, Pim Welle, and Valentin Bolotnyy

Gizem Kosar and Davide Melcangi

Michael J. Fleming, Jonathan Palash-Mizner, and Or Shachar

Adam Copeland and R. Jay Kahn

Stein Berre and Asani Sarkar

Matthew Higgins and Thomas Klitgaard

U.S. trade policy remains in flux. Nevertheless, important elements of the new policy regime are apparent in data through July. What stands out are the large differences in realized tariff rates by trading partner, ranging from less than 5 percent for Canada and Mexico to 15 percent for Japan and to 40 percent for China. This post shows that the bulk of cross-country differences in tariff rates is explained by two factors:  the U.S.-Canada-Mexico free trade agreement and differing sales shares in tariff-exempt categories.  

Richard Audoly and Roshie Xing

Stephan Luck

Digital currencies have grown rapidly in recent years. In July 2025, Congress passed the “Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins Act” (GENIUS) Act, establishing the first comprehensive federal framework governing the issuance of stablecoins. In this post, we place stablecoins in a historical perspective by comparing them to national bank notes, a form of privately issued money that circulated in the United States from 1863 through 1935.

Natalia Fischl-Lanzoni, Martin Hiti, and Asani Sarkar

Natalia Fischl-Lanzoni, Martin Hiti, and Asani Sarkar

Pablo Azar, Francesca Carapella, JP Perez-Sangimino, Nathan Swem, and Alexandros P. Vardoulakis

Pablo Azar, Francesca Carapella, JP Perez-Sangimino, Nathan Swem, and Alexandros P. Vardoulakis

Linda S. Goldberg and Samantha Hirschhorn

Marco Del Negro, Ibrahima Diagne, Keshav Dogra, Elena Elbarmi, Donggyu Lee, and Michael Pham

Jaison R. Abel, Richard Deitz, Natalia Emanuel, Ben Hyman, and Nick Montalbano

Beverly Hirtle and Matthew Plosser 

Jacob Kim-Sherman and Lee Seltzer

Sophia Cho and John C. Williams

Nicholas Bloom, Jonathan Hartley, Raffaella Sadun, Rachel Schuh, and John Van Reenen

Donghoon Lee and Joseph Tracy

Kristian S. Blickle, Evan Perry, and João A.C. Santos

Andrew F. Haughwout, Donghoon Lee, Jonathan Lee, Joelle Scally, and Wilbert van der Klaauw

Kinda Hachem

Nina Boyarchenko and Leonardo Elias

Kristian Blickle, Jian Li, Xu Lu, and Yiming Ma

Ellen Correia Golay, Maximilian Dunn, Michael J. Fleming, Peter Johansson, Isabel Krogh, Or Shachar, and Joshua Younger

Sophia Cho, Thomas M. Mertens, and John C. Williams

Interest rates have fluctuated significantly over time. After a period of high inflation in the late 1970s and early 1980s, interest rates entered a decline that lasted for nearly four decades. The federal funds rate—the primary tool for monetary policy in the United States—followed this trend, while also varying with cycles of economic recessions and expansions.

Matteo Crosignani and Martin Hiti

The Federal Reserve’s mission and regional structure ask that it always work to better understand local and regional economic activity. This requires gauging the economic impact of localized events, including natural disasters. Despite the economic significance of natural disasters—flowing often from their human toll—there are currently no publicly available data on the damages they cause in the United States at the county level.

Stefan Avdjiev and Linda S. Goldberg

Gara Afonso, Marco Cipriani, JC Martinez, and Matthew Plosser

Marco Del Negro, Ibrahima Diagne, Pranay Gundam, Donggyu Lee, and Brian Pacula

Jaison R. Abel, Richard Deitz, Sebastian Heise, Ben Hyman, and Nick Montalbano

Richard Audoly and Roshie Xing

Richard Crump and Nikolay Gospodinov

Gabriel Leonard, Donald Morgan, and Wilbert van der Klaauw

Nicola Cetorelli, Gonzalo Cisternas, and Asani Sarkar

Thomas Klitgaard

The obvious answer to the question of why the United States runs a trade deficit is that its export sales have not kept up with its demand for imports. A less obvious answer is that the imbalance reflects a macroeconomic phenomenon. Using national accounting, one can show deficits are also due to a persistent shortfall in domestic saving that requires funds from abroad to finance domestic investment spending. Reducing the trade imbalance therefore requires both more exports relative to imports and a narrowing of the gap between saving and investment spending.

Rajashri Chakrabarti, Thu Pham, Beckett Pierce, and Maxim Pinkovskiy

Andrew F. Haughwout, Donghoon Lee, Daniel Mangrum, Joelle Scally, and Wilbert van der Klaauw

Nina Boyarchenko, Hyuntae Choi, and Leonardo Elias

The modern financial system is complex, with funding flowing not just from the financial sector to the real sector but within the financial sector through an intricate network of financial claims. While much of our work focuses on understanding the end result of these flows—credit provided to the real sector—we explore in this post how accounting for interlinkages across the financial sector changes our perception of who finances credit to the real sector.

Jeffrey B. Dawson and Hunter L. Clark

Kenechukwu Anadu, Pablo D. Azar, Marco Cipriani, Thomas M. Eisenbach, Catherine Huang, Mattia Landoni, Gabriele La Spada, Marco Macchiavelli, Antoine Malfroy-Camine, and J. Christina Wang

Pablo D. Azar, Adrian G. Casillas, and Maryam Farboodi

Jaison R. Abel and Richard Deitz

Jaison R. Abel and Richard Deitz

Matthew Higgins and Thomas Klitgaard