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One year after Donald Trump was elected President of the United States for a second time, New York City elected a self-declared “democratic socialist” as Mayor. Zohran Mamdani beat independent candidate, disgraced former Democrat Andrew Cuomo, by nine percentage points.

In Virginia and New Jersey too, Democrats swept to double-digit victories. In California, Governor Gavin Newsom’s redistricting ballot measure (a direct response to Republican gerrymandering in Texas) also passed easily.

New Australia Institute polling reveals only 8% of Australians are genuinely convinced Australia “shares values” with Trump’s America.

“It is past time Australia rethinks national security – and focuses on fairness and climate action, not blind fealty to America.’

@emmashortis.bsky.social #auspol

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— The Australia Institute (@australiainstitute.org.au) November 4, 2025 at 12:19 PM

Not content with alienating voters in former blue-ribbon seats who think climate change is real by dithering on its net-zero commitment, several male Coalition MPs did their level best this week to alienate women as well.

Here’s what happened. “Priya’s Law” was an uncontroversial bill designed to clarify that employers can’t just cancel paid parental leave if a child is stillborn or dies after birth. The law was drafted after baby Priya died when she was just 42 days old and a heartless employer notified Priya’s mother, just days after her daughter’s death, that her pre-approved parental leave was being cancelled and she was required to return to work.

It is every parent’s worst nightmare. But for Barnaby Joyce, Andrew Hastie, and several other male Coalition MPs you’ve never heard of, it was also an opportunity to virtue-signal on abortion.

“Unfortunately – I hate to bring it up – there remains the issue of late-term abortion. We have a right to know if it includes that,” Joyce said.

Hastie reminded the Parliament he was opposed to late-term abortion, saying “I do have a question about the unintended consequences of this bill and it applies to late-term abortions.”

“But if they do this on net zero, they’ll never get elected” is one of the most common comments in response to having the situation explained to them.

This is the correct response, because the Liberals can’t get elected if they do this.

As much as some may look to Tim Wilson’s defeat of Zoe Daniels in Goldstein as proof they can manage to win back the teals (as James Paterson did on Wednesday), they forget that is when the Liberals had a net zero policy at least partly based in the science – and Goldstein was a perfect storm of circumstances unlikely to ever be repeated.

(Also, the best way to remind people of why they voted in independent in the first place is to have someone like Wilson back on the political scene.)

The thing to understand with all of this is that it is not logical and it never has been. This is about individual power and survival.

Barnaby Joyce was all but crowing from the parliament flag pole this week at how he had dragged the Nationals, once again, to his position, which has then had the Liberals all but follow suit.

The Nationals have been openly dragging the Liberals around since the Turnbull years. Scott Morrison and Peter Dutton were canny enough to manage to contain the damage (and were also mostly on board). Ley has no such authority.

Greg and Elinor discuss the Reserve Bank’s predictable rates decision, Microsoft’s decision to refund some customers after pressure from the Australian Competition & Consumer Commission, and whether Australia’s tobacco excise has become self-defeating.

Aiming Higher: Universities and Australia’s future by Professor George Williams is available now via Australia Institute Press.

This discussion was recorded on Thursday 6 November 2025.

Host: Greg Jericho, Chief Economist, the Australia Institute // @grogsgamut

Host: Elinor Johnston-Leek, Senior Content Producer, the Australia Institute // @elinorjohnstonleek

Show notes:

The RBA predicts inflation will rise faster than wages. Let’s hope it’s wrong by Greg Jericho, Guardian Australia (November 2025)

This was slightly down on 2024 but, nevertheless, the CEO and executive group paid themselves $35.3 million, an increase of $2.4 million.  CEO Andrew Irvine got a cool $5.6 million as remuneration in the year to September 2025.

NAB is Australia’s fifth largest company and third largest bank by market value. It accounts for 17% of all the loans to Australian residents. That includes 14% of housing loans and 22% of business loans, which means it is slightly biased towards its business customers.

Nevertheless, NAB is one of the big banks which, between them, control 72% of all Australian home loans. On average, they make $213,480 in pure profit from the average first home buyer paying off a 30 year mortgage.

“The NAB’s slightly lower profit has been described as “lukewarm” and “disappointing”. It is neither of those things. It is obscene,” said Richard Denniss, co-CEO of The Australia Institute.

“The lack of competition among the big banks in Australia comes at a huge cost to struggling homeowners.

“Just like the similar profit posted by Westpac a few days ago, this massive profit from home loans far exceeds the level of risk the bank undertakes.

“The federal government has a huge majority and therefore a huge opportunity to help take the burden off the people who need help the most.

On this episode of Follow the Money, Richard Denniss and Ebony Bennett discuss the lack of accountability in Australia’s universities, why some institutions’ claims of financial crises aren’t supported by their auditors, and what Australians think about the state of the sector.

Aiming Higher: Universities and Australia’s future by Professor George Williams is available now via Australia Institute Press.

Guest: Richard Denniss, co-CEO, the Australia Institute // @richarddenniss

Host: Ebony Bennett, Deputy Director, the Australia Institute // @ebonybennett

Show notes:

Australians believe universities are too expensive and not doing their job: polling, the Australia Institute (November 2025)

There is no financial crisis at the University of Newcastle: new analysis, the Australia Institute (October 2025)

Polling also found only 3% of Australians think making a profit should be a primary purpose of universities – however more than half believe that it currently is a primary purpose.

Meanwhile, fewer than half of Australians believe educating students is currently a primary purpose of universities, despite 80% thinking it should be.

Key findings:

• Three out of four Australians (77%) think university degrees should cost $10,000 or less per year.
• About three in five Australians (58%) think university degrees should cost $5,000 or less per year.
• Less than one in 20 (3%) of Australians think that making a profit should be a primary purpose of universities, yet more than half (54%) believe that it currently is a primary purpose.
• Four in five (80%) Australians think that educating students should be a primary purpose of universities, yet 44% believe it is currently a primary purpose of universities.

“University fees are totally out of step with community expectations. Despite about three in five Australians believing degrees should cost $5,000 or less a year, most university degrees are more expensive than this. Highly popular degrees such as arts, commerce, and law now cost about $17,000 per year,” said Jack Thrower, Senior Economist at The Australia Institute.

“High university fees are leading to mounting student debts, which are taking ever longer to pay off.

There are now more than 4 million guns legally owned in Australia, more than before the Port Arthur tragedy in 1996.

Worse still, significant numbers of legally-owned guns are stolen each year, according to research published by the Australia Institute.

According to police statistics in each state and the ACT, more than 9000 firearms were stolen from 2020 to 2024.

That works out at more than 2000 guns a year on average, or one every four hours.

Over the past two decades, at least 44,631 guns were stolen, a substantial supply of weapons into the hands of criminals.

Gaps in the data and a lack of information on unregistered firearms mean that the full number of firearms stolen in that time must be even larger.

Data on firearm theft is not consistent, with different information provided depending on the state.

For example, Victoria and South Australia provide information on the types of firearms stolen.

Tasmania has numbers for both firearms stolen and incidents of firearms theft, showing on average three guns are stolen per robbery.

It also shows the RBA cares more about inflation than jobs.

“Unsurprisingly the Reserve Bank has chosen to keep rates steady at 3.6% This reflects that yet again the RBA care more about inflation than maintaining full employment,” said Greg Jericho, Chief Economist at The Australia Institute.

“In the past month unemployment continued its steady rise to 4.5%, while the inflation had a surprisingly sharp increase due mostly to the end of state-based energy rebates.

“In response the RBA has shown it is less worried about ongoing rising unemployment than reacting to a surprising blip in inflation.

“The most recent household spending figures released yesterday showed households are slowing their spending and shifting towards spending on necessities.

“In order to keep unemployment from rising further that RBA must care as much about the full employment part of its dual mandate as it does inflation.”

The post Rate hold shows RBA cares more about inflation than jobs appeared first on The Australia Institute.

The polling follows reporting of the Albanese Government’s Federal Labor Business Forum, where corporations pay up to $110,000 for privileged access to Government Ministers. Government ministers are also keeping details of the meetings secret by blocking access to ministerial diaries. The Liberal and National parties engage in similar activities, though their own business forums.

Key findings:

• Three in five Australians (63%) think that cash-for-access payments constitute corrupt conduct. Only 12% do not.
• Most Australians think cash-for-access constitutes corrupt conduct, regardless of voting intention.
• Four in five Australians (82%) agree that paying for exclusive access to politicians gives corporations and special interests unfair political influence.
• An overwhelming majority of Australians (78%) agree that politicians should refuse to participate in events where participants with a vested interest in government policies have paid for exclusive access.

“Politicians could improve public faith in democracy by ruling out taking money in a way that most Australians view as corrupt,” said Mark Ogge, Principal Advisor at The Australia Institute.

“It’s clear that cash-for-access payments completely fail the pub test.

On this episode of After America, Dr Emma Shortis joins Angus Blackman to discuss some new Australia Institute polling, which shows that Australians are less than convinced that we “share values” with Trump’s America. Emma is then joined by Dr Frank Yuan and Allan Behm to discuss Trump’s meeting with Xi and the chaos whirling around the president.

The first part of this discussion was recorded on Friday 31st October. The second part was recorded on Monday 3rd November.

Dead Centre: How political pragmatism is killing us by Richard Denniss is available now via Australia Institute Press.

Guest: Allan Behm, Special Advisor in International Affairs, the Australia Institute

Guest: Dr Frank Yuan, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, The Australia Institute // @yuan-frank

Host: Emma Shortis, Director, International & Security Affairs, the Australia Institute // @emmashortis

Host: Angus Blackman, Executive Producer, the Australia Institute // @AngusRB

Show notes: 

Westpac has today announced a full-year profit of $10 billion before tax for the financial year ending on 30 September, 2025.

Westpac is one of Australia’s “big four” banks, which together control 72% of all loans to Australian residents.

By market capitalisation, Westpac ranks as Australia’s fifth largest listed company and third largest bank. Westpac alone holds 19% of all loans and 21% of all housing loans in the country.

Australia Institute research shows the big four banks make $213,480 profit over the 30-year life of an average size mortgage for a first-home buyer.

“Australia Institute figures don’t even include the extra profit banks make on any other savings or credit card accounts, transaction fees, kickbacks on insurance they sell your or the ridiculous prices they charge to get a bank cheque,” said Richard Denniss, co-CEO of The Australia Institute.

“The lack of competition among the big banks has come at the cost of home owners, and their massive profits from home loans far exceeds the level of risk the banks undertake.

“The Albanese Government has huge majority in Parliament, and huge opportunity to help take the burden off the people who need help the most.

“A small super profits tax, raising just over $1.7 billion in 2024-25, was imposed by the Coalition Government back in 2017 – that has clearly done little to dent the profits, or the market share of the big bank.

Press conferences at Parliament House, our 2025 Revenue Summit, Senate Committee hearings and several media interviews, October was a busy month for The Australia Institute.

Check out a few highlights of our impact!

The post October 2025 Media Highlights appeared first on The Australia Institute.

On this episode of Dollars & Sense, Greg and Elinor discuss the “shock” inflation figures, what energy subsidies have to do with the larger-than-expected increase, and why the Australian Competition & Consumer Commission (ACCC) is suing Microsoft.

Pre-order Aiming Higher: Universities and Australia’s future by George Williams via Australia Institute Press.

The Point, an initiative of the Australia Institute, is live now.

This discussion was recorded on Thursday 30 October 2025.

Host: Greg Jericho, Chief Economist, the Australia Institute // @grogsgamut

Host: Elinor Johnston-Leek, Senior Content Producer, the Australia Institute // @elinorjohnstonleek

Show notes:

So it’s goodbye to lower interest rates – to be honest, the RBA was always looking for an excuse not to cut by Greg Jericho, Guardian Australia (October 2025)

A self-processed former “punk” using her position in Parliament to criticise the Prime Minister for wearing a Joy Division T-shirt is stupid-stupid, even for Auspol, which long ago shifted the bar from low to subterranean.

To borrow from Shakespeare, it is a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.

Given the nation is being forced into having a conversation about a boomer wearing a band T-shirt, let’s take a little bit more of a look at it shall we?

The T-shirt depicts the album cover of Unknown Pleasures, which – in turn – features a graphic of radio waves from a pulsar. In other words, a signal from an object of extreme density spinning away deep in the void. A perfect metaphor for this “debate”.

Physics tells us that empty vessels make the most noise, which is another perfect analogy for Sussan Ley and the modern Liberal Party. Ley’s desperate need for relevancy, underscored by her office sending her 90-second statement around the press gallery to ensure coverage, perhaps disproves the notion that nothing can be truly empty.

Ley’s “argument” was that by wearing a Joy Division t-shirt, Anthony Albanese risked upsetting Australia’s Jewish community, given the origins of the band’s name come from a 1950s book that told the story of sex slaves kept by the Nazis, who referred to them as the “joy division”.

On this episode of Follow the Money, Rod Campbell and Ebony Bennett discuss the lack of political will to properly protect the natural environment, a proposal for a 25% gas export tax to replace the Petroleum Resources Rent Tax, and new research showing that Adani cost Queenslanders hundreds of millions of dollars by selling coal at mates’ rates.

Strong environment laws stop new coal and gas. You can sign our petition calling on the Australian Government to genuinely strengthen Australia’s environment laws.

Guest: Rod Campbell, Research Director, the Australia Institute // @rodcampbell

Host: Ebony Bennett, Deputy Director, the Australia Institute // @ebonybennett

Show notes:

Can Albanese claim ‘success’ with Trump? Beyond the banter, the vague commitments should be viewed with scepticism by Emma Shortis, The Conversation (October 2025)

That’s one every four hours.

Based on data obtained from police in each state and territory, the paper reveals that at least 9,000 guns have been stolen since 2020 and over 44,000 since 2000.

The new report builds on previous research showing there are now over 4 million guns in Australia, more than before the Port Arthur killings, and the subsequent reforms under the Howard Government.

“Thousands of guns are flowing into the hands of criminals every year, putting Australians in danger,” said Rod Campbell, Research Director at The Australia Institute.

“There are record numbers of guns in Australia and this research shows how easily they can fall into the hands of criminals.

“Theft of legal guns is the main source of illegal guns in Australia, not 3D printing or illegal imports. It’s pretty simple – the more legal guns there are in Australia, the more illegal guns there will be.

“Australia would be safer with fewer guns in the community overall, and governments need to work to reduce the number of guns in Australia and in each state and territory.

“State and federal governments have been complacent, perhaps believing that gun control in Australia was sorted by the Howard Government in the 1990s.

“This research shows that gun control and keeping the community safe requires ongoing efforts from all levels of government.

“Australians might be shocked to discover that the Howard-era National Firearms Agreement has still not been completed.

In August, The Australia Institute welcomed the Tasmanian Liberal Party’s promise to conduct an independent study into the salmon industry, pausing marine expansion while the review is carried out.

However, the Tasmanian Government’s Terms of Reference were finalised without public consultation. Moreover, the entire study will not provide any recommendations.

The Australia Institute has been conducting research into the salmon industry for a decade. It shows 7 in 10 Tasmanians support the 2022 Parliamentary Inquiry to reduce inshore fish farming and to stop it altogether in sensitive, sheltered, and biodiverse areas.

“The Terms of Reference were developed in secret, with no public consultation and amount to a stitch up for the foreign-owned salmon industry in Tasmania,” said Eloise Carr, director of The Australia Institute Tasmania.

“Unless they are changed and truly independent reviewers are appointed, the study risks being a complete waste of time and tax-payer money.

“The science is clear – we know the harm this industry is doing in its current form in Tasmania and globally. This study had the opportunity to deliver on the findings of previous inquiries, including the Tasmanian Parliamentary Inquiry, by recommending how to change the way this industry operates.

On this episode of After America, Matt Duss joins Dr Emma Shortis to discuss Trump’s deployment of troops in the domestic United States, the administration’s attacks on Venezuela, negotiations over Gaza and Ukraine, and what it really means when the President makes a promise.

This discussion was recorded on Friday 24 October 2025.

You can sign our petition calling on the Australian Government to launch a parliamentary inquiry into AUKUS.

Dead Centre: How political pragmatism is killing us by Richard Denniss is available now via Australia Institute Press.

Guest: Matt Duss, Executive Vice President, Center for International Policy // @mattduss

Host: Emma Shortis, Director, International & Security Affairs, the Australia Institute // @emmashortis

Show notes:

Trump’s tragedy: the US becomes an autocracy and the presidency, a dictatorship by Emma Shortis, The Conversation (October 2025)

Following the announcement of Donald Trump’s ‘peace’ deal and the resulting ‘ceasefire’ there has been a lot of quiet commentary in legacy media circles about the future of the fifth estate.

“What are all these single-issue media critics going to do now that the issue is solved?” is the question being asked in newsrooms, as if now that the bombs have officially stopped dropping over civilians in Gaza (never mind that they haven’t), audiences will return to the legacy fold.

This question isn’t based in malice but a fundamental misunderstanding of what caused the schism in trust between audiences and media. It’s also not new. There has always been a level of distrust within newsrooms of people who undertake journalism away from the fold. It’s easy to dismiss renegades, even as the mainstream is forced to follow them.

Who gets to be a journalist — and who doesn’t

Who ‘gets’ to be a journalist has always been set by the mainstream – you must work for a masthead, a network or an established broadcaster to be counted as a ‘proper’ journalist. With one of those behind you, then it follows that everything you do is ‘journalism’.

Without the overhang of an established brand, then you are not a journalist. You’re something else. An activist. A ‘citizen’ journalist. A blogger. A podcaster. An influencer. A content creator. Someone ‘masquerading’ as a journalist. It doesn’t matter if you once worked for an established media outlet. You left. Whatever you’re doing now obviously can’t be considered ‘journalism’.

The Wrap with Bill Browne

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese returns from a meeting with the mercurial US President Donald Trump, a great diplomatic success by the usual measures. Trump said without hedging that Australia would get nuclear-powered submarines under the AUKUS pact and inked a critical minerals deal to “unlock” private investment.

The media lapped up Trump’s comments, as did the Prime Minister – who said Labor’s ads at the next election might feature Trump’s endorsement. But as Emma Shortis warned this week, beneath the bonhomie there was little substance. There are good reasons to doubt that AUKUS will happen and that a full embrace of Trump is wise, or even electorally popular.

‘Symbolically, the meeting was a success. In substance, it revealed that the fundamentals of the relationship have not changed.’

Dr Emma Shortis unpacks Albanese’s meeting with Trump in The Conversation.

@emmashortis.bsky.social #auspol

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On this episode of Dollars & Sense, Greg and Elinor discuss the critical minerals agreement struck between the Australian and American governments, Andrew Leigh’s new anti-price gouging legislation, and why Aussies have been lining up for gold.

Dead Centre: How political pragmatism is killing us by Richard Denniss is available now via the Australia Institute website.

This discussion was recorded on Thursday 23 October 2025.

Host: Greg Jericho, Chief Economist, the Australia Institute // @grogsgamut

Host: Elinor Johnston-Leek, Senior Content Producer, the Australia Institute // @elinorjohnstonleek

Show notes:

Australia’s surprise unemployment spike suggests an economy not overheating but in need of stimulus by Greg Jericho, Guardian Australia (October 2025)

The university had net assets of more than $1.8 billion at the end of 2024. That is an increase of more than $150 million from the previous year.

This strong increase in the value of its assets is due in part to the strong surplus of $61.3 million shown in the audited accounts.

“The University of Newcastle is not experiencing any form of financial crisis,” said Dr Richard Denniss, co-CEO of The Australia Institute.

“To suggest that there is something ‘unsustainable’ about the financial performance of an organisation whose net assets have grown by nearly $600 million and whose retained earnings have grown by more than $400 million over the past 10 years is just silly.

“It is important to realise that claims the university ran an ‘underlying deficit’ last year are not based on the university’s audited results.

“The so-called ‘adjusted operating result’ is calculated by management by removing some forms of revenue described as ‘one-off’, but there is no similar effort to remove one-off items of expenditure.

On this crossover episode of Follow the Money and After America, Dr Emma Shortis and Ebony Bennett discuss why Australia is still unlikely to receive any Virginia-class submarines, why the “shared values” that supposedly underpin the Australia-US alliance are looking increasingly shaky, and Trump’s bizarre AI video showing himself dropping excrement on protesters.

You can sign our petition calling on the Australian Government to launch a parliamentary inquiry into AUKUS.

After America: Australia and the new world order by Emma Shortis is available via Australia Institute Press.

Guest: Emma Shortis, Director of International & Security Affairs, the Australia Institute // @emmashortis

Host: Ebony Bennett, Deputy Director, the Australia Institute // @ebonybennett

Show notes:

Salmon farming is the primary threat to the endangered Maugean skate in its only home, Macquarie Harbour, part of Tasmania’s Wilderness World Heritage Area.

The latest report from the Institute of Marine and Antarctic Studies states the population of the skate is still dangerously low, while juveniles are in an even more precarious situation. There is no guarantee these will survive to reproductive maturity.

The government has admitted salmon farming is the primary threat and that the skate remains at high risk of extinction, but is refusing to follow its own advice, which is to “eliminate or significantly reduce” fish farms to avoid the “almost certain” and “catastrophic” impact of this industry.

Meanwhile, the Tasmanian government is currently preparing Terms of Reference for a review of the salmon industry in Tasmania, but there has been no public consultation to date.

“For the Australian government to say the species appears to be recovering is incorrect, and to say that when its own advice says it’s not possible to make such conclusions, is misleading.” said Eloise Carr, Director of The Australia Institute Tasmania.

“The Australian government is failing to meet its obligations to protect World Heritage.

“The government is ignoring its own department’s advice in its attempts to reassure UNESCO that enough is being done to address the destruction of World Heritage caused by the salmon industry. This is simply not the case.

On this episode of After America, Judge Navi Pillay, former UN High Commissioner for Human Rights and 2025 Sydney Peace Prize Laureate, joins Dr Emma Shortis to discuss accountability in international law and the prerequisites for genuine peace.

This discussion was recorded on Monday 13 October 2025.

Details of Judge Navi Pillay’s Australian events are available on the Sydney Peace Foundation website.

Dead Centre: How political pragmatism is killing us by Richard Denniss is available now via Australia Institute Press.

Guest: Navi Pillay, Chair of the United Nations Human Rights Council Independent International Commission of Inquiry on the Occupied Palestinian Territory

Host: Emma Shortis, Director, International & Security Affairs, the Australia Institute // @emmashortis

Show notes:

Israel has committed genocide in the Gaza Strip, UN Commission finds, Office of the High Commissioner, United Nations Human Rights (September 2025)

For the past few years, a growing problem has put healthcare budgets under increasing stress.

State and territory governments have been trying to do more with less, and it is all starting to come apart at the seams.

Extra money for healthcare during the pandemic hid the problem for a while. But, with those emergency sources of revenue gone, the states face funding shortfalls, and it is everyday Australians who are suffering as a result.

Overcrowded hospital waiting rooms. People waiting years in pain for hip replacements. People delaying appointments because of the cost, which then means issues are not picked up early.

Source of the problem probably not what you think

But this is not all doom and gloom. There is the real possibility of meaningful change.

The problem is that the GST is failing. The GST was created as a state tax, collected by the Commonwealth government, but then transferred in full to the state and territories.

It was promised to be the states’ own growth tax, which would help them fund their spending responsibilities, the biggest of which was healthcare.

But over the past 25 years since its introduction, it hasn’t grown with the economy.

Australia Institute analysis also shows:

• Gas exports worth $170 billion paid no royalties and no PRRT over the last 4 years.
• Australians pay 4 times more in HECs /Help repayments than the gas industry pays in PRRT.
• Australian nurses pay more tax than the gas industry.
• Many gas exporters continue to pay no tax and PRRT payments are at a 3 year low.
• The Australian government gives gas exporters more than half the gas they export royalty free.

“A 25% gas export tax would go a long way towards solving the nation’s housing crisis and the self-inflicted ‘gas crisis’ in one fell swoop,” said Rod Campbell, Research Director at The Australia Institute.

“It is extraordinary that Australia raises so little money from gas exports, despite being one of the world’s largest producers.

“This is an opportunity for the Albanese government to implement progressive patriotism and put the interests of Australian households and businesses ahead of gas industry greed.

On this episode of Dollars & Sense, Greg and Elinor discuss the latest World Economic Outlook from the International Monetary Fund, the latest trade spat between the United States and China, why fewer Australians are travelling to America, and the Australian Government’s backdown over superannuation.

Dead Centre: How political pragmatism is killing us by Richard Denniss is available now via the Australia Institute website.

This discussion was recorded on Wednesday 15 October 2025.

Host: Greg Jericho, Chief Economist, the Australia Institute // @grogsgamut

Host: Elinor Johnston-Leek, Senior Content Producer, the Australia Institute // @elinorjohnstonleek

Show notes:

The IMF reckons the global economy remains ‘in flux’, but the Trump effect is real – and Australians aren’t fooled by Greg Jericho, Guardian Australia (October 2025)

Environment Minister Murray Watt is known as Labor’s political “fixer” – Australians have given him the opportunity to fix something for us, and our planet.

The Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act (EPBC) was enacted in 2000 as the country’s first attempt at a holistic approach to balance the desire for growth with the need for environmental protection.

At the same time, the world was beginning global efforts to reduce emissions and stabilise the climate.

The Howard government failed to integrate action on climate with protecting and restoring nature. It was a failure repeated by successive governments.

The original EPBC Act did not include a mechanism for dealing with growing emissions and climate change. But Australia had at least signalled its intention to be part of global efforts to stabilise the climate, with then-environment minister Robert Hill signing the Kyoto Protocol in 1997.

Hill always stuck to his guns on the environment. At a fossil fuel-sponsored conference in Canberra, Hill took the floor and, staring down the captains of industry, said: “I have stated many times, and will do so again, that Australia accepts the balance of the scientific evidence which suggests that human activity is accelerating the increase in the Earth’s average temperature.”

It was a backbone not found on this issue with the then-prime minister, John Howard. No doubt under pressure from fossil fuel interests, the PM refused to ratify the Kyoto Protocol, which his environment minister had signed the country on to.

When coal prices hit a record $280 per tonne in 2023, Adani sold Queensland coal to Indian buyers for $100 per tonne, drastically reducing royalty payments to Queenslanders.

The current LNP government abandoned court action to recoup the payments in August this year, a case started by the former Labor government.

“Adani was almost giving coal away at mates rates right at the time when Queenslanders were struggling most with record energy prices in 2023,” said Rod Campbell, Research Director at The Australia Institute.

“Just as the Federal government gives away Australia’s gas resources for free, the Queensland government is now effectively giving away $400 million worth of free coal.

“That $400 million could have tripled the state’s $100 Back to School Boost payment for primary school students or paid for a year’s worth of free school lunches.

“Budgets are about choices, and the Queensland government has to choose between letting foreign-owned fossil fuel companies dodge their payments or whether to spend more on services for ordinary Queenslanders who are struggling.

“After winning the federal election, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese spoke of ‘doing things the Australian way’ and of ‘progressive patriotism’.

“This new research shows that the Queensland government could use a dose of progressive patriotism as well.

“Despite being one of the world’s largest exporters of gas and coal, Australians are paying high prices for energy.

On this episode of Follow the Money, Leanne Minshull and Ebony Bennett discuss the Federal Government’s efforts to push through changes to Australia’s busted environment laws with the support of the Coalition.

Dead Centre: How political pragmatism is killing us by Richard Denniss is available now via Australia Institute Press.

Guest: Leanne Minshull, co-CEO, the Australia Institute // @leanneminshull

Host: Ebony Bennett, Deputy Director, the Australia Institute // @ebonybennett

Show notes:

This shocking deal is a gross betrayal of millions of voters by Ebony Bennett, The Canberra Times (October 2025)

Top Australian scientists unite in defence of science on Maugean skate, the Australia Institute

On this episode of After America, Elizabeth Pancotti, economic policy specialist and former advisor to Senator Bernie Sanders, joins Dr Emma Shortis to discuss the US government shutdown and how the Trump administration is using it to further consolidate power.

This discussion was recorded on Friday 10 October 2025.

Tickets for America Unravelling, featuring Emma Shortis and Don Watson, on Sunday 19 October at the Queenscliffe Literary Festival are available online.

Dead Centre: How political pragmatism is killing us by Richard Denniss is available now via Australia Institute Press.

Guest: Elizabeth Pancotti, Managing Director of Policy and Advocacy, Groundwork Collaborative // @ENPancotti

Host: Emma Shortis, Director, International & Security Affairs, the Australia Institute // @emmashortis

Show notes:

In this current financial year, an estimated $21 billion in superannuation tax concessions will flow to the richest 10% of Australians – more than is spent on either child care subsidies, government schools or the estimated $13.6 billion that it would cost the government to include dental in Medicare.

The proposed changes would only affect around 0.5% of people with superannuation and would have been a very small but vital attempt to redress the gross imbalance in the system.

Australia Institute research shows the vast majority of people under 30 will never have more than $3 million in superannuation.

“The government’s watering down of the changes, by indexing the $3 million with inflation, and ruling out taxing unrealised capital gains will be of great comfort to those who abuse the superannuation system in order to avoid paying tax,” said Greg Jericho, Chief Economist at The Australia Institute.

“The tax system needs reform to make it fairer and to remove distortions such as the capital gains tax discount which has greatly contributed to the housing affordability crisis.

“These changes do little to rein in massive inequality of the superannuation tax system.

“The government’s decision today will embolden those who prefer a tax system that favours the rich.”

“Single JobSeeker [payment] just hit $400 a week. Let me know how you’d go if you were getting that little and were randomly not paid.”

This comment, from the people behind Nobody Deserves Poverty, points to the ignored cruelty at the heart of one of Australia’s most shameful open secrets.

The mutual obligations system – the system by which we set (through privatised “job providers”) mostly demeaning and useless tasks for unemployed people to meet in order to receive their welfare benefits – is documented to cause harm, with little evidence it actually does anything to meet its main objective: get people into work.

The system is so convoluted and already stacked against people that even without the issue of lawfulness, it would still be not just harmful, but useless. In terms of punishing people, it is working as intended. But governments tend to pay attention when harm can also be considered unlawful, and that’s the issue here.

When the Coalition introduced the Targeted Compliance Framework (TCF) in 2017-18, it gave private job agencies the power to punish “non-compliant” job-seeker behaviour without the checks and balances of government.

If a job agency decides that one of their “clients” hasn’t met their mutual obligations – or just screws up and doesn’t report that they have – welfare recipients literally pay the price. Their payments can be suspended, or they can be forced into menial work-for-the-dole programs, without any consideration of their suitability. Concerns were raised almost immediately.

I’ve been lucky enough to complete a few multi-day hikes overseas in the past few years. Every morning, I woke up in my tent with the feeling that something wasn’t quite right and then I realised why – it was practically silent.

There’s no cackle of kookaburras at dawn, no warble of magpies, or comforting screeches of cockatoos. Songbirds the world over had their evolutionary origins right here in Australia, but we’ve got the original and the best (and the loudest).

As a giant island, Australia is a hotspot for biodiversity. We are home to countless plant and animal species found nowhere else on Earth, thanks to millions of years of evolution in isolation.

Overall, Australia’s nature laws have done a crap job of protecting them. Unfortunately, Environment Minister Murray Watt looks set to continue that track record, with news he’ll be negotiating to pass an overhaul of Australia’s nature laws with the Coalition, not the Greens. That pretty much tells you everything you need to know.

The Wrap with Hayden Starr

For the last five years I’ve worked behind the scenes, helping communicate the Australia Institute’s research online and on social media, including writing and editing this newsletter. As my time with the Australia Institute comes to an end, it’s my pleasure to write The Wrap for my last newsletter with you.

It takes a lot to change someone’s mind. It takes a lot to change a country. Even more so when you are up against the very well-resourced and very powerful misinformation machines that serve to defend and consolidate power, wealth, and the status quo.

There are few better examples than that of the fossil fuel industry. Greenwashing gas, overinflating economic benefits, spreading lies about renewable energy, all while digging new coal mines and gas wells and paying a pittance (or nothing) in tax.

“Australia is one of the biggest gas exporters in the world.

“Yet when gas prices go up, it’s Australians that feel poor.”

These claims have been dutifully repeated, but a close look at the university’s audited accounts tells a very different story.

To be clear, the numbers signed off by their auditor state that in 2024 ANU recorded a $90 million surplus and increased the value of its net assets.

So, how do you turn a $90 million surplus into a $142.5 million deficit?

Easy. You just exclude nearly a quarter of a billion dollars of revenue that the auditor thought should be included.

By excluding $232.4 million of revenue recognised by the independent auditor, the ANU was able to transform its healthy surplus in 2024 into a “underlying operating deficit.”

Sounds scary, right?

The auditors ticked off on one set of numbers, and the senior leadership waved another set at their staff, students and community in order to justify the spending cuts they want to make.

To be clear, according to the ANU’s audited financial results, it had $3.8 billion in net assets at the end of 2024, compared to $3.7 billion at the end of 2023.

On this episode of Dollars & Sense, Greg and Elinor discuss housing affordability, how so many of Australia’s biggest companies manage to pay zero (0) corporate tax, and how Trump made solving the tax problem that much harder.

Use the code ‘podcast’ to get 50% off tickets to the Australia Institute’s Revenue Summit. Discount available for Dollars & Sense listeners while stocks last.

Dead Centre: How political pragmatism is killing us by Richard Denniss is available now via the Australia Institute website.

This discussion was recorded on Thursday 9 October 2025.

Host: Greg Jericho, Chief Economist, the Australia Institute // @grogsgamut

Host: Elinor Johnston-Leek, Senior Content Producer, the Australia Institute // @elinorjohnstonleek

Show notes:

On this episode of Follow the Money, Matt Grudnoff and Ebony Bennett discuss the latest data from the Australian Taxation Office showing that 30 per cent of large corporations paid no company tax in 2023-24 – with the gas, coal, salmon and tech industries among the worst offenders.

Use the code ‘podcast’ to get 50% off tickets to the Australia Institute’s Revenue Summit. Discount available for Follow the Money listeners while stocks last.

Guest: Matt Grudnoff, Senior Economist, the Australia Institute // @mattgrudnoff

Host: Ebony Bennett, Deputy Director, the Australia Institute // @ebonybennett

Show notes:

New government data confirms gas exporters continue to pay no tax, the Australia Institute (October 2025)

Big gas is taking the piss, Follow the Money, the Australia Institute (April 2025)

Theme music: Pulse and Thrum; additional music by Blue Dot Sessions

On this episode of After America, Antoun Issa joins Dr Emma Shortis to discuss the prospects for a deal that did not include Palestinians in the negotiating process. They also discuss the role of the United States in the Middle East, how power works in foreign policy, and opening up space for a bigger discussion about foreign policy here in Australia.

This episode was recorded on Friday 3 October.

Dead Centre: How political pragmatism is killing us by Richard Denniss is available now via Australia Institute Press.

Guest: Antoun Issa, Founder, DeepCut // @antounissa

Host: Emma Shortis, Director of International & Security Affairs, the Australia Institute // @emmashortis

Show notes:

Beyond the Two-State Solution: Policy responses to the Destruction of Palestine and the Insecurity of Israel, the Australia Institute (February 2025)

Australians overwhelmingly back sanctions on Israel, new poll finds by Alex McKinnon, DeepCut (October 2025)

The Royal Commission into Robodebt recommended making cabinet documents easier to access under FOI laws, finding the current system thwarted investigations into the scheme.

The Prime Minister himself described Robodebt as a “gross betrayal and human tragedy”, yet his government plans to make cabinet documents harder to access.

This is in direct defiance of the Robodebt Royal Commission’s recommendation to make cabinet documents available for public scrutiny.

“If cabinet documents had been public, the unlawful and cruel Robodebt scheme could have been exposed and prevented. For that reason, the Robodebt Royal Commission recommended making cabinet documents available under FOI,” said Bill Browne, Director of the Australia Institute’s Democracy & Accountability Program.

“The Albanese government wants to make documents even harder to access, in defiance of the Royal Commission, increasing the risk the next Robodebt will happen in secret.”

“The over-use of the cabinet document exemption and other problems with the FOI system are critical reasons why Robodebt was allowed to continue with impunity for so long,” said Maria O’Sullivan, Associate Professor at Deakin Law School.

“The proposed changes to the FOI Act will actually expand the cabinet exemption even further.”

The new research also reveals that it is government inefficiency, not the number of requests, behind the growing cost of the FOI system.

Someone did, however, in that very same talkback segment. Phyllis rang in to say she did want to complain, because she wanted to retire and downsize, but property prices were growing so fast that she was worried about buying and selling in the same market – even if it was a smaller property.

Howard told her she was wrong.

“You’re not actually complaining. What you’re really saying is the value of a house hasn’t gone up enough,” he said.

Phyllis was having none of it: “No, no, no. I disagree. I think that it is ridiculous that the inflation of the housing prices … what about our grandchildren?”

Phyllis was right. Because while she complained, in late 2003, about people having to spend “$500,000 … on some broken-down old dump”, the median house price for her grandchildren – assuming they live in Queensland – is now $977,300.

The government knew house prices were a problem then, and it knows they are a problem now.

And just like Howard, who was told by the Productivity Commission in 2004 – in a briefing prepared for his cabinet – that an urgent review of his capital gains tax changes was needed to arrest the jumps in the housing market, every single government has only made short-term changes that ultimately make the situation worse, rather than get to the root cause. And they are STILL doing it.

In 2003 Howard blamed low interest rates for rising house prices, as people could afford to borrow more.

ATO data reveals:

• Santos Limited has racked up a 10th straight year of zero corporate tax payments from a total of nearly $47 billion in sales.
• Darwin’s Ichthys LNG Pty Ltd paid zero corporate tax for the 6th year running, from a total of $43 billion in sales.
• Petroleum Resource Rent Tax (PRRT) revenue has hit a 3-year low, down to $1.5 billion from a peak of $2.0 billion in 2021-22.

“The new tax data shows, yet again, that big gas is taking the piss out of Australians,” said Rod Campbell, Research Director at The Australia Institute.

“It beggars belief that a company like Santos can spend a decade selling almost $50 billion worth of gas and not pay a cent of tax on it.

“Japanese ambassadors and executives see fit to lecture Australia on energy and tax policy, while Japanese entities like Ichthys pay zero company tax and zero PRRT.

“PRRT revenue was lower in the latest year of data (2023-24) even though production and prices were high and a Labor government had been in power for over a year.

“Australia Institute research shows that over the 10 years to 2023-24, nurses paid $7 billion more in tax than did the oil and gas companies. How’s that fair?

On this episode of Dollars & Sense, Greg and Elinor discuss whether Emirati supermarket chain Lulu will take on Colesworth, the Reserve Bank’s decision to keep rates on hold, Trump’s unworkable tariffs on foreign films, and how the government could actually address the housing crisis.

Use the code ‘podcast’ to get 50% off tickets to the Australia Institute’s Revenue Summit. Featuring Hon Steven Miles MP, Senator Larissa Waters, Senator David Pocock, Dr Kate Chaney MP, Greg Jericho and more, the Summit is on Wednesday 29 October at Parliament House in Canberra. Discount available for Dollars & Sense listeners while stocks last.

Dead Centre: How political pragmatism is killing us by Richard Denniss is available now via the Australia Institute website.

This discussion was recorded on Thursday 2 October 2025.

Host: Greg Jericho, Chief Economist, the Australia Institute // @grogsgamut

Host: Elinor Johnston-Leek, Senior Content Producer, the Australia Institute // @elinorjohnstonleek

Show notes:

On this episode of Follow the Money, Dr Emma Shortis and Glenn Connley discuss Anthony Albanese’s major diplomatic tour, the US Defense Secretary’s concerning warning to his top brass, and why the Trump-Netanyahu peace plan seems “doomed to fail”.

You can sign our petition calling on the Australian Government to launch a parliamentary inquiry into AUKUS.

After America: Australia and the new world order by Emma Shortis is available via Australia Institute Press.

Guest: Emma Shortis, Director of International & Security Affairs, the Australia Institute // @emmashortis

Host: Glenn Connley, Senior Media Advisor, the Australia Institute // @glennconnley

Show notes:

After America, the Australia Institute

The list has been compiled by Dr Frank Yuan, Postdoctoral Fellow at The Australia Institute, who insists China is far less mysterious and scary than most Australians might think.

In fact, he says, beyond daily news references to China’s economic and military power, there are countless stories of successful Chinese business tycoons, entertainers, journalists, academics and government officials – many with deep connections to the west.

There’s the tech mogul who flew too close to the sun, the “wolf warrior” journalist who once described Australia as “chewed gum stuck on China’s boot” and the global pop star who could teach Taylor Swift a thing or two.

The paper – Today’s China in Seven Life Stories – urges Australian to get to know the woman behind the face on the label of their favourite chili sauce, the energy tsar helping transform China into a renewable energy superpower and the theoretician who’s shaped China’s foreign outlook under three Presidents.

“China is a surprisingly cosmopolitan society. It is full of countless rags-to-riches stories as part of the astounding economic development it has experienced since the 1980s,” said Dr Frank Yuan.

“Many Chinese elites have not only visited western countries, but even educational or professional connections with them. Increasingly, popular culture in China is also becoming part of the globalised pop culture.

The Australia Institute board is pleased to announce Leanne Minshull has been named as co-Chief Executive Officer.

Leanne will be working in the role alongside Dr Richard Denniss, who will also serve as co-Chief Executive Officer.

Formerly the Institute’s Strategy Director, Leanne has built an extensive network across political, advocacy, and business communities, working as a senior strategist in social, environmental, not-for-profit, and political sectors.

Quotes attributable to Australia Institute Board Chair, Dr John McKinnon:

“The board is thrilled to have such capable and experienced leaders within the Institute, and under the leadership of Richard and Leanne we can ensure we remain effective as we continue to grow.

“The Australia Institute is nation’s most consequential think tank, and with more than 50 staff working on multiple projects and initiatives, we are one of the country’s most high-impact organisations.

“We look forward to the next chapter in the Institute’s development and our growing role in helping shape the future of the nation.”

Quotes attributable to Australia Institute co-Chief Executive Officer, Richard Denniss:

“I am thrilled Leanne has agreed to take on the role of co-CEO.

“Leanne brings a wealth of experience to the organisation, through decades of working to make Australia a fairer place across politics, policy, and advocacy.

Save Tuvalu, Save The World can now be viewed publicly on YouTube.

In tiny, idyllic Tuvalu, there are no climate deniers. It’s impossible to deny what’s happening before your very eyes.

Sea water is pushing up through the land, destroying traditional crops and making the water unfit to drink. High tides are inundating the country, flooding the main island’s only airport, cutting Tuvalu off from the world.

“Tuvalu is ground zero for the global climate crisis,” said Stephen Long, filmmaker and Senior Fellow and Contributing Editor at The Australia Institute.

“No nation is more vulnerable than this small Pacific country.”

Save Tuvalu, Save The World looks at climate change through the eyes of those experiencing the consequences of climate change in their everyday lives, including young climate campaigner Gitty Yee, who visited Australia last week for three sold-out preview screenings of the documentary.

“I see myself as a climate warrior,” Gitty says.

“I fight for my country, and I fight for what we believe in. I fight for our right to live, our right to prosper, for our future generations.”

From Senate Committee hearings to interviews, as well as reacting to everything going on in the news, check out a few highlights of our impact!

The post September 2025 Media Highlights appeared first on The Australia Institute.