The Australia Institute Feed Items

On this episode of Follow the Money, Sandrine Dixson-Declève, Co-President of the Club of Rome, joins Ebony Bennett to discuss phasing out fossil fuels, the false narratives being peddled about the green transition, and why addressing inequality is fundamental to tackling the climate crisis.

This discussion was recorded on Thursday 24 October 2024 and things may have changed since recording.

Pre-order What’s the Big Idea? 32 Big Ideas for a Better Australia now, via the Australia Institute website.

Guest: Sandrine Dixson-Declève, Co-President of the Club of Rome // @SDDecleve

Host: Ebony Bennett, Deputy Director, the Australia Institute // @ebony_bennett

Host: Alice Grundy, Research Manager, Anne Kantor Fellows, the Australia Institute // @alicekgt

Show notes:

Earth for All – A Survival Guide for Humanity, The Club of Rome (2022)

The Limits to Growth, The Club of Rome (1972)

On this episode of Dollars & Sense, Greg and Elinor discuss the latest wages data, the likely impact of Trump’s tariff policies on Australia, and why the Reserve Bank are running out of excuses not to cut interest rates.

This discussion was recorded on Thursday 14 November 2024 and things may have changed since recording.

Pre-order What’s the Big Idea? 32 Big Ideas for a Better Australia now, via the Australia Institute website.

Host: Greg Jericho, Chief Economist, the Australia Institute and Centre for Future Work // @GrogsGamut

Host: Elinor Johnston-Leek, Senior Content Producer, the Australia Institute // @ElinorJ_L

Show notes:

‘It’s time for the RBA to admit its fears of a wage-price spiral were misguided – and cut interest rates’ by Greg Jericho, Guardian Australia (November 2024)

How Governments Can Help with the Cost of Living, the Australia Institute’s Policy School

Following in the tradition of parentheses bill names, which attempt to frame how a bill is thought about by voters and therefore prevent closer looks, the Electoral (Accountability and Integrity) Amendment Bill 2024 seeks to amend the state’s donation laws.

The reforms are being billed as a way of removing political donations from election campaigns and ending political fundraising during state election campaigns. In place of those donations, the Australia Institute estimates between $15 million and $20 million in public funding will be shared among political parties and candidates for elections.

The government says it will “restructure the public funding model, increase administrative funding, introduce an advance payment scheme, amend party registration and nomination requirements” and insert new definitions into the legislation, including for the term, ‘donation’.

All of that sounds great.  Attorney-general Kyam Maher says it will “help to ensure power is kept in the hands of voters and give both established and new voices an equal footing in state elections”.

What does it actually do? 

Here is where we get to those pesky details. Director of the Democracy and Accountability Program at The Australia Institute, Bill Browne, has taken a pretty long look at the bill and found some small print the big headlines haven’t gone into.

Workers holding Pacific Australia Labour Mobility (PALM) visas can be the difference between fruit being harvested or left to rot on the vine.

But, in return for the critical work they do to keep some sectors of our agriculture industry afloat, PALM visa holders pay more tax than Australians doing the same work and find it almost impossible to access their superannuation.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese consistently talks about being part of a “Pacific Family”, lauding the PALM program as a key component of that close regional relationship.

But this new report finds the PALM program is in urgent need of reform if Australia is to truly treat these workers like family.

Yet quality, affordable care remains inaccessible for many families. Since the last increase in government subsidies a year ago, fees have increased faster than inflation and wages.

But what if the government offered early childhood education in the same way it offered school education? Reforming Australia’s approach to early childhood education would increase the size of the economy by $168 billion and allow the government to collect an additional $48 billion in revenue.

Both sides of politics know the benefits of early childhood education: high-quality childcare improves educational outcomes for children, and low-cost or free high-quality childcare also increases labour force participation by providing parents the opportunity to return to work. Access to affordable and quality care is also integral to family violence prevention and response.

Despite the clear value for children, families and the broader community, early childhood education in Australia is often run by private, for-profit providers that drive up fees and have contributed to the creation of childcare deserts across the country. Early childhood education centres are also difficult to staff sustainably, with many workers underpaid and undervalued.

But the solutions being offered mainly focus on increasing childcare subsidies in the hope of reducing the cost for families even though this doesn’t work.

The Wrap with Amy Remeikis

Well, that was quite the week, wasn’t it?

We wouldn’t blame you if you’re feeling a little bit flat.  While many people may have thought they were prepared for a Trump victory, thinking it and seeing it happen are two very different things.  Moo Deng may have tried to warn us Trump was heading for a conclusive victory, but that doesn’t mean there weren’t still hopes America would choose differently.

And while there are concerns over how Trump will handle domestic concerns, particularly for immigrants, women and minorities, the result of this election doesn’t just change the United States – it has ramifications for the world.

The world order as we know it looks set to be turned on its head.

Trump hasn’t been shy in expressing his love of the fossil fuel industry, something which clearly resonated with Australia’s Gina Rinehart who was spotted at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago as one of the soon-to-be 47th president’s “special people”, which will make meeting the world’s climate goals even more difficult.

Rinehart believed she was on the winner’s ticket from the beginning – she met with the Trump campaign the first time round in 2016, after which she urged the Australian government to adopt his economic policies.

Fast forward eight years and Australia’s richest woman hasn’t changed her tune, telling the Australian newspaper early last week “the world would be better off with more leaders like Trump”.

In light of reports, they are seeking increases above 5%, it is worth remembering that private health insurance is a terrible way to deliver good health outcomes.

You can’t say public policy is always worse in America, but aside from how they conduct elections, the one policy the US does worse than anywhere else is healthcare.

Among OECD nations, the US spends the most on health and as a reward they have one of the worst life expectancies:

There are several reasons why they have this outcome – from structural racism to the serious lack of economic safety nets such as decent minimum wages – but the chief reason is their healthcare overly relies on private insurance in a manner unlike most other nations.

Although the introduction of the Affordable Care Act has shifted some private health insurance from voluntary to compulsory, the nation still massively relies on a system designed to profit from people’s ill heath:

My oma would read me Aesop’s fables as a child because she believed stories should always teach you something. And that something was always easier to learn through the lessons of someone else.

My favourite was The Wolf and the Lamb.

I would listen as she would tell me of the wolf looking to justify his actions by finding some blame in the lamb he wished to eat.

But the lamb did not feed from the wolf’s pasture, did not drink from his spring.  The lamb had not lived long enough to insult the wolf.  But still the wolf ate the lamb, citing his right to dinner.

The lesson; the tyrant will always find a pretext for his tyranny, and it is useless to appeal for justice from an unjust oppressor.

And so, how then, does one beat the wolf? After all, Aesop also told us of the shepherd who learnt once a wolf, always a wolf, after the one he trusted ate half his flock.

The answer, my oma would say, was to be brave.

Like the mice who lived in fear of the barn cat but could not find the bravery to hang a bell from its neck. Without bravery, things continue much as they always have.

The wolf will find the justification to eat the lamb no matter how unfair.

It wasn’t the tale itself that made it a favourite.  It was that the answer in beating the wolf was so obvious.

Malcolm Turnbull, Australia’s 29th Prime Minister, joins Dr Emma Shortis to discuss why sucking up to Trump will get Australian leaders nowhere and how the AUKUS “shocker” is making Australia more dependent on the United States, right at the time America is becoming less dependable.

This discussion was recorded on Friday 8 November 2024 US time and things may have changed since recording.

Guest: Malcolm Turnbull, the 29th Prime Minister of Australia // @TurnbullMalcolm

Host: Emma Shortis, Director of International & Security Affairs, the Australia Institute // @EmmaShortis

Show notes:

‘The Bad Guys: How to Deal with our Illiberal Friends’, Australian Foreign Affairs (October 2022)

Theme music: Blue Dot Sessions

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How do profits drive inflation?

From December 2019 to June 2023, inflation in Australia rose faster than it has in 30 years. Over this time, the share of national income going to corporate profits also increased substantially.

At the same time, the share going to wages and small businesses declined.

The profits made by large corporations during this time are huge: some $100 billion over and above their pre-pandemic profit margins.

According to Australia Institute research, these rising profits made up more than half of the inflation above the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)’s target range of 2% to 3%.

The link between profits and inflation in Australia was replicated in research by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), headed by former Liberal Finance Minister Mathias Cormann.

The research found that while a majority of drivers wanted to purchase an EV next time they buy a car, the government’s focus on improving charging infrastructure – at the expense of helping with the upfront cost of an EV – is putting the brakes on sales.

New data, released today by the Australian Automobile Association, reveals sales of fully electric vehicles fell by 25% in the three months to September.

Vehicle emissions account for almost 20% of the state’s overall emissions.

While the biggest obstacle for choosing an electric vehicle is the upfront cost, the government’s EV policies are almost entirely focused on expanding and improving charging infrastructure.

The Australia Institute surveyed 800 NSW residents between 6 September and 10 September 2024. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5%.

In the last of our daily election episodes of After America, Dr Emma Shortis reflects on the glass ceiling in American politics, the Democrats’ failure to address their own shortcomings over the last three decades, and why the Australian Government doesn’t need to just cop whatever challenges the next US administration throws at it.

This discussion was recorded on Thursday 7 November 2024 US time and things may have changed since recording.

Host: Emma Shortis, Director of International & Security Affairs, the Australia Institute // @EmmaShortis

Show notes:

Thick: And Other Essays by Tressie McMillan Cottom (January 2019)

‘Kidnapping, assassination and a London shoot-out: Inside the CIA’s secret war plans against WikiLeaks’, Yahoo! News (September 2021)

Theme music: Blue Dot Sessions

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On this episode of Dollars & Sense, Greg and Elinor discuss the big structural problems with Australia’s private health insurance system and why public services like healthcare are best carried out by the public sector.

Greg Jericho is Chief Economist at the Australia Institute and the Centre for Future Work and popular columnist of Grogonomics with Guardian Australia. Each week on Dollars & Sense, Greg dives into the latest economic figures to explain what they can tell us about what’s happening in the economy, how it will impact you and where things are headed.

Host: Greg Jericho, Chief Economist, the Australia Institute and Centre for Future Work // @GrogsGamut

Host: Elinor Johnston-Leek, Senior Content Producer, the Australia Institute // @ElinorJ_L

Show notes:

‘Is private health insurance a con? The answer is in the graphs’ by Greg Jericho, Guardian Australia (February 2018)

On this episode of After America, Dr Emma Shortis and Alice Grundy discuss what the Trump victory means for American society and democratic institutions, the soul-searching facing the Democrats after a comprehensive defeat, and the implications for Australia.

This discussion was recorded on Wednesday 6 November 2024 and things may have changed since recording.

Host: Emma Shortis, Director of International & Security Affairs, the Australia Institute // @EmmaShortis

Host: Alice Grundy, Research Manager, Anne Kantor Fellows, the Australia Institute // @alicekgt

Theme music: Blue Dot Sessions

Subscribe for regular updates from the Australia Institute.

We’d love to hear your feedback on this series, so send in your questions, comments or suggestions for future episodes to podcasts@australiainstitute.org.au.

The Australia Institute’s submission to the inquiry identified serious conflict of interest risks in the consulting industry and polling found most Australians support a ban on PwC receiving new government work.

Key details:

• The inquiry into Structural Challenges in the Audit, Assurance and Consultancy Industry was called after serious problems in the consulting industry came to light.

• The inquiry report recommends:

  • Continuing the ban on PwC tenders for government work until all ongoing investigations have been completed.
  • Limiting partnerships to no more than 400 partners.
  • Professional standards and regulations for consultants.
  • Applying the Corporations Act to large partnerships.
  • Greater alignment of whistleblower protections and applying those protections to large audit, accounting and consulting firms.
  • “Operational separation” of audit services from other services to the same client.

• Most of the recommendations, including some of the most important, received multi-party support.

“Australians have understandably lost confidence in consulting firms following multiple scandals, including mismanaged conflicts of interest, leaking of confidential government information and burying information that reflected badly on the illegal Robodebt scheme,” said Bill Browne, Director of the Australia Institute’s Democracy & Accountability Program.

It is a timely reminder that for all its faults, Australian democracy is a model for the world: with independently administered elections, where voters can list their true preferences without throwing away their vote, and compulsory voting that ensures that the voices of the disadvantaged and disaffected are heard.

The Australia Institute Tasmania Director Eloise Carr and I have identified three key reforms that could improve Tasmanian elections and the integrity and accountability of its government:

• Stronger political donations disclosure laws so that Tasmanians know where their politicians get the money from.
• Truth in political advertising laws to ensure parties and candidates face consequences for misleading advertising.
• Strengthening the Tasmanian Integrity Commission, the state’s underfunded anti-corruption watchdog.

The diversity of voices elected to the Tasmanian Parliament gives hope that these, and other reforms we recommended in the Democracy Agenda for the 51st Tasmanian Parliament, will be taken up.

In fact, there is only a hearing today because one of the recommended reforms has already been adopted: the creation of the Tasmanian Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters.

Most other Australian jurisdictions have these committees, which review each election for lessons learned, any problems that occurred and ways to improve the system for next time.

On the final pre-election episode of After America, Matthew Bevan and Dr Emma Shortis reflect on an enormous Harris rally in Philadelphia, whether the polls have anything useful to tell us, and the dangers of a contested result.

Guest: Matthew Bevan, host and writer of If You’re Listening, the ABC // @MatthewBevan

Host: Emma Shortis, Director of International & Security Affairs, the Australia Institute // @EmmaShortis

Theme music: Blue Dot Sessions

Subscribe for regular updates from the Australia Institute.

We’d love to hear your feedback on this series, so send in your questions, comments or suggestions for future episodes to podcasts@australiainstitute.org.au.

These tiny margins, and the general confusion around American politics today, make it impossible to predict the outcome.

The polls might well be wrong: the electorate may have shifted dramatically since 2020 in ways that will only reveal themselves after the election. The reality is we do not know much of anything for sure, and we may never be able to untangle all of the threads that make up the knot of American politics.

After two assassination attempts on Trump and incumbent President Joe Biden’s dramatic decision to leave the race in August, it is entirely possible this election will throw up more big surprises. But as things stand, there are three broad possibilities for what will happen on Election Day.

All of them throw up their own challenges – for the United States, and for the world.

Possibility 1: the return of Trump

Trump may make history and win back the White House. Only Grover Cleveland has managed to get elected a second time as president (in 1892) after suffering a defeat four years earlier.

If Trump does win, it could be via a similar path to the one he took in 2016 – by once again sundering the “blue wall” and winning the battleground states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan.

This feat will likely mean his campaign tactic of mobilising men has worked.

On this episode of Follow the Money, Australia Institute International & Security Affairs Advisor Allan Behm joins us to discuss the “unachievable” AUKUS nuclear submarine deal, Australia’s ‘fear of abandonment’, and how the outcome of the presidential election might change US foreign policy.

Guest: Allan Behm, International & Security Affairs Advisor, the Australia Institute // @Mirandaprorsus

Host: Ebony Bennett, Deputy Director, the Australia Institute // @ebony_bennett

Show notes:

The Odd Couple: the Australia-America relationship by Allan Behm (2024)

No Enemies No Friends: Restoring Australia’s Global Relevance by Allan Behm (2022)

Fear of Abandonment: Australia in the World since 1942 by Allan Gyngell (2021)

Theme music: Pulse and Thrum; additional music by Blue Dot Sessions

On the eve of the 2024 Transparency Summit in Canberra tomorrow, the Australia Institute contrasts the United States, where whistleblower rewards have encouraged the recovery of billions of dollars from white collar criminals, to Australia, where corporate malfeasance appears to be rife and protections and support for whistleblowers are limited.

Key Findings:

• Under just one of several whistleblower reward schemes in the US, whistleblowers have been awarded over A$1.4 billion, from enforcement actions worth over A$8.3 billion.
• Whistleblowers in the US can receive up to 30% of money recovered.
• A revenue contingent payment mechanism, modelled on the HECS/HELP scheme, would allow Australia to recover whistleblower rewards and fines from offenders.
• Three in five Australians (62%) support rewards for whistleblowers who expose corporate wrongdoing, four times as many as oppose them (16%).

“Many of the worst examples of corporate wrongdoing have been exposed by whistleblowers. It’s time whistleblowers were protected and compensated,” said Professor Allan Fels AO.

“Whistleblowers are brave people who expose the truth about corporate misconduct and wrongdoing. They should be protected and celebrated, not punished,” said Kieran Pender, Acting Legal Director at the Human Rights Law Centre.

“A whistleblower incentive program, alongside improved whistleblower protections, would encourage more people to come forward to hold companies accountable for wrongdoing.

Bruce Thompson joins Dr Emma Shortis to discuss what it’s like to live in a battleground state in the heat of a presidential campaign, the prospect of legal challenges from the Trump in the event of a Democratic victory, and who Harris might pick as her Secretary of State if she wins the election.

This discussion was recorded on Friday 1 November 2024 and things may have changed since recording.

Guest: R. Bruce Thompson II, Partner, Parker Poe

Host: Emma Shortis, Director of International & Security Affairs, the Australia Institute // @EmmaShortis

Theme music: Blue Dot Sessions

Subscribe for regular updates from the Australia Institute.

We’d love to hear your feedback on this series, so send in your questions, comments or suggestions for future episodes to podcasts@australiainstitute.org.au.

The post Will women win Kamala Harris the election? appeared first on The Australia Institute.

On this episode of After America, Timor-Leste President José Ramos-Horta joins Dr Emma Shortis to discuss the US-China relationship and his disillusionment with the Western response to the Israel’s actions in Gaza.

This discussion was recorded on Wednesday 9 October 2024 and things may have changed since recording.

Guest: His Excellency José Ramos-Horta, President of Timor-Leste and Nobel Peace Laureate // @JoseRamosHorta1

Host: Emma Shortis, Director of International & Security Affairs, the Australia Institute // @EmmaShortis

Show notes:

Statement of the Secretary-General on Israeli legislation on UNRWA, United Nations (October 2024)

UNRWA cannot be replaced, say UN top officials in response to Knesset ban, United Nations (October 2024)

Occupied Palestinian Territory, United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs

On this episode of After America, Yanis Varoufakis joins Dr Emma Shortis to discuss the prospect of a grand deal between the US and China on climate, how Trump emerged from the Obama presidency, and why America isn’t a real democracy.

This discussion was recorded on Friday 1 November 2024 and things may have changed since recording.

Guest: Yanis Varoufakis, economist, politician, author and the former finance minister of Greece // @yanisvaroufakis

Host: Emma Shortis, Director of International & Security Affairs, the Australia Institute // @EmmaShortis

Show notes:

‘The end of capitalism with Yanis Varoufakis’, Follow the Money (March 2024)

Yanis Varoufakis – Technofeudalism, National Press Club Address (March 2024)

Theme music: Blue Dot Sessions

Subscribe for regular updates from the Australia Institute.

Elections in the ACT and on the northern beaches of Sydney suggest a movement is on foot.

Canberrans elected two independents, whose vote swelled at the expense of both major parties and the Greens. In the NSW state electorate of Pittwater, the community (or “teal”) independent Jacqui Scruby was victorious in what was, until recently, a safe Liberal seat.

The shift is part of a decades-long decline in the major party vote. At the 1990 federal, election just 9 per cent voted for a minor party or independent. In 2022 the figure was 32 per cent, not far short of the primary votes for Labor and the Liberal-National Coalition.

With the Labor government in the ACT approaching a quarter-century of rule (sharing power with the Greens for most of that time), proportional representation allowed Canberrans to elect a counter-veiling force without replacing the government with the Liberal opposition.

While the two independents will not hold balance of power, as parliamentarians they can influence parliamentary debate, propose legislation and question the executive.

The independents also offer a glimpse at a path back to power for the opposition, a point made by the last Liberal chief minister to win election in the ACT. “For the Libs to get up, they really need more independents”, Kate Carnell said on election night.

Across the states and territories, major party politicians are warming to independents and minor parties, and even the value of power-sharing in minority and coalition governments.

These companies have never paid company tax, despite exporting the equivalent of 15 years of gas used by Australians in the eastern states.

These companies have also been exempted from the Petroleum Resource Rent Tax, the tax that is supposed to cover gas production in Australia.

“It is amazing that companies making $36 billion of income exporting Australian gas could pay no company tax, said Mark Ogge, Principle Adviser at the Australia institute.

“If you paid any tax in 2022-23, you paid more than all these gas corporations combined.

“Australians are missing out on schools, hospitals, housing and cost of living relief because foreign-owned gas exporters are taking us for a ride, and our governments are doing nothing about it.”

The post Gas companies export $36 billion of gas from Queensland, pay zero tax … again appeared first on The Australia Institute.

As a key accountability mechanism for exposing public and private sector wrongdoing, it is time we recognise the role of whistleblowers in the pursuit of climate integrity.

But without fixing Australia’s broken whistleblowing laws, the risks for whistleblowers to speak up about climate and environmental wrongdoing will remain too high.

Three years on, there is still no compelling argument, strategic or otherwise, for Australia’s acquiring eight Virginia class nuclear-propelled submarines (SSNs).

Nor is there any compelling calculation of the large lick of funding – $368 billion and more – that the program will soak up. Only Defence seems able to command such stupendous outlays when childcare, aged care, Medicare rebates, the National Disability Insurance Scheme, education and social housing fight it out for every cent they can get. The opportunity costs outweigh the value of the opportunity.

The two official documents released so far – one a self-proclaimed “strategic review” and the other a national defence strategy thinner than the paper on which it is printed – are strong on assertion and weak on analysis. They are all we have to justify this extraordinary indulgence in national hubris.

The policy imperative that substantiates Royal Australian Navy (RAN) submarine deployment to the tropic of Cancer, China’s front door, is unknown. The force structure consequences of this unconstrained ambition are unevaluated. The implications for naval capability and the associated personnel requirements await assessment. The industrial and technological demands on the manufacturing sector are unstated, unplanned and unfunded. AUKUS is the triumph of ambition over achievability.

On this special crossover episode of After America and Presidency Pending, Associate Professor Zim Nwokora and Associate Professor Clare Corbould from Deakin University join Dr Emma Shortis to discuss whether reproductive rights will mobilise enough voters for Kamala Harris in key states and the role of Biden in the campaign.

This discussion was recorded on Wednesday 30 October 2024 and things may have changed since recording.

Guest: Zim Nwokora, Associate Professor, Deakin University

Guest: Clare Corbould, Associate Head of School, Research Faculty of Arts and Education/School of Humanities and Social Sciences, Deakin University // @clarecorbould

Host: Emma Shortis, Director of International & Security Affairs, the Australia Institute // @EmmaShortis

Theme music: Blue Dot Sessions

Subscribe for regular updates from the Australia Institute.

To succeed, it must have the confidence of the Australian public.

Several of its actions and decisions – including the current mess relating to whether or not it will investigate six people referred to it by the Robodebt Royal Commission – risk eroding public confidence.

Now, just 16 months after it was established, the powers and governance of the NACC need to be reviewed to ensure it lives up to the trust placed in it.

The Australia Institute, which campaigned for a decade to introduce a federal integrity commission, recommends five changes to make the NACC more effective and rebuild public confidence.

Key recommendations:

• Bring forward the statutory review of the NACC
  • A statutory review is scheduled to take place in three years. This review should be brought forward and initiated now.
• Allow public hearings whenever it is in the public interest to do so.
• Implement a Whistleblower Protection Authority.
• Ensure the Parliamentary Committee which oversees the NACC is not controlled by the government of the day.
• Broaden the powers of the NACC Inspector.

“When the National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC) was created in 2022, Australians had high expectations, given a string of high-profile integrity issues in government had been identified,” said Bill Browne, Director, Democracy & Accountability Program at the Australia Institute.

On the 50th episode of Dollars & Sense, Greg and Elinor discuss nuclear power furphies, the latest inflation data and how much the big four banks are profiting from home loans.

Greg Jericho is Chief Economist at the Australia Institute and the Centre for Future Work and popular columnist of Grogonomics with Guardian Australia. Each week on Dollars & Sense, Greg dives into the latest economic figures to explain what they can tell us about what’s happening in the economy, how it will impact you and where things are headed.

Host: Greg Jericho, Chief Economist, the Australia Institute and Centre for Future Work // @GrogsGamut

Host: Elinor Johnston-Leek, Senior Content Producer, the Australia Institute // @ElinorJ_L

Show notes:

‘Labor’s actions to lower inflation have worked – so why is the RBA unlikely to cut interest rates next week?’ by Greg Jericho, Guardian Australia (October 2024)

Profit in home lending, the Australia Institute (October 2024)

A notable trend in Australian politics has been the decline of the share of the vote won by both major parties at federal elections. One effect of this is that there are no longer any safe seats in Australian politics: minor parties and independents win more “safe” seats than they do “marginal” ones.

The declining major party vote

Fewer Australians give their first preference to a major party. The 2007 federal election is the last at which both Labor and the Liberal-National Coalition won more than 40% of the national vote; the 2022 election was the first time that neither cracked 40%.

The share of Australians voting outside of the major parties has increased from single digits in the 1970s to 31% at the most recent election in 2022, almost as many as the 36% who voted for the Coalition and 33% who voted for Labor. Not since the Great Depression has the combined vote for the two largest parties been so low.

The effect of a lower primary vote for major parties is that minor parties and independents have a better chance of winning seats.