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In 2016, ABC election analyst Antony Green ruefully remarked that it ‘seems impossible to cover an election without referring to bellwether seats’.

A ‘bellwether’ seat is one that predicts the overall election result. For forty years, whichever party won the regional NSW seat of Eden-Monaro also won government as a whole.

But elections – and journalistic fads – change quickly, and 2016 would prove to be the bellwether’s last hurrah. As Green explained, a seat can end up as a bellwether by pure coincidence, not any underlying property of the seat itself. And by the time the bellwether seat is decided, the overall election has usually already been called.

The end of the bellwether seat’s time in the sun is a reminder that what matters are the dynamics in individual electorates, not political cliches or outdated rules of thumb.

‘Bellwether seats’ are so last decade. According to the media database NewsBank, the proportion of metropolitan commercial newspapers using the term ‘bellwether’ to describe political processes during federal election campaigns grew more than threefold between 2001 and 2007. The number of articles was relatively high in 2010, followed by a modest decline in 2013.

References to ‘bellwether seats’ nearly doubled again in 2016.

Last week, RFK Jr's HHS made headlines as deep cuts saw over 10,000 staff laid off across the department. The move contrasted with RFK’s claim that he would “end the chronic disease epidemic”- although not with his other campaign promise, to take “a break” from infectious disease research for “about eight years”.

To most logical people, RFK’s two stated ambitions appear to conflict with each other. How can we possibly tackle the chronic illness crisis, while slashing- even halting- funding for medical research into infectious disease? Since 2020, it’s only become more clear than ever that infectious diseases like EBV, HIV, HPV, herpes, syphilis, and now COVID-19 lead to chronic illness.

President Trump has put into words what everyone in Washington was already thinking: there is a very real possibility of strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities this summer. They would probably be led by Israel, with U.S. support and the quiet acquiescence of several Arab partners allowing the use of their airspace. It would be an enormous undertaking to blow up hardened underground sites in multiple locations at long distances, but the Israelis are almost certainly prepared and capable, having explored this option many times before. It’s probable that they briefed the Trump campaign in the months leading up to the election, setting out the most likely options and contingency scenarios. In the intervening months, it’s been a matter of the administration getting the right team in place at the National Security Council and waiting to see how Iran responds. 

Sushant Acharya, Ozge Akinci, Silvia Miranda-Agrippino, and Paolo A. Pesenti

Sushant Acharya, Ozge Akinci, Silvia Miranda-Agrippino, and Paolo A. Pesenti

“Australia is one of the world’s largest exporters of Liquified Natural Gas but, despite this fact, the largely foreign-owned gas industry has been making the bizarre claim that there is a shortage of gas in Australia,” said Dr Denniss.

“Peter Dutton’s rejection of that silly claim, and his proposal to tax gas exports to encourage greater local supply, is a watershed in Australian energy policy debate.”

Research by The Australia Institute shows that more than 80 percent of gas produced in Australia has been used for exports, and more than half of those gas exports were given away, royalty-free, to the gas exporters.

“Putting a tax on gas exports is an easy way to ensure that more of Australia’s gas flows to Australians and that they pay less for it,” said Dr Denniss.

“Introducing a cap on gas exports as well would be an even better way to both protect Australians from cost-of-living pressures and protect the climate from increased emissions from burning gas.

“The opportunity for Labor to expand on the Coalition’s policy is enormous.

“For decades, the major parties in Australia have seemed afraid to put the interests of Australian taxpayers ahead of the profits of the fossil fuel industry.

“But now that Peter Dutton has made the first step, the opportunities for the new parliament are unprecedented.

A competitive and diverse news industry is key to a democratic society, keeping institutions accountable and transparent. But the ability of Australia’s Fourth Estate to perform that role is increasingly in doubt.

Australia was once labelled the “land of the newspaper” by British visitors, with a flourishing and diverse news industry, but for over a century its newspaper market has only become more concentrated and less competitive. In 1903 there were 21 daily newspapers in the capital cities, with 17 different owners; By the 1950s it was 15, with ten different owners. Now it’s even worse.

Introduction

For those who want a truthful discussion, yet may sometimes struggle to respond to false claims, this report, Countering misinformation about refugees and migrants: An evidence-based framework, is designed to help you know what to do and when.

With an easy-to-follow decision tree and how-to examples, this report can equip you to respond across a range of situations— and lays the groundwork for you to create responses aligned with your own aims.

False narratives about refugees and migrants are increasingly shaping public opinion—both in Australia and globally. Understanding how misinformation works, and knowing when and how to respond, is crucial for fostering informed, fact-based discussions. Source

While the focus is on addressing misinformation in the Australian debate about refugees and migration, the framework can be adapted for use in other countries and across a variety of issues.

What City Observatory Did This Week

A Non-Denial Denial:  An independent traffic analysis of the proposed $7.5 billion Interstate Bridge Replacement (IBR) project shows that it won’t solve the actual traffic bottleneck between Portland and Vancouver.  In response, bridge advocates have offered a statement purporting to dispute the study, which actually doesn’t deny its accuracy.

I loathe putting my thesis first (the thesis-first tradition is directly descended from people who didn’t actually believe that persuasion is possible), but here I will. The way that a lot of liberals, progressives, and pro-democracy people are talking about GOP support for authoritarianism is neither helpful nor accurate.

It was clear the Reserve Bank was unwilling to make a decision on Tuesday because of uncertainty regarding the leveling of tariffs by the Trump administration.

Although it was clear even at the time that Trump’s tariff policy would result in a slowing of the global economy and risk rising unemployment here in Australia, now that the scale of the tariffs is known, the RBA should reconvene and cut rates rather than wait until May 19-20.

The Reserve Bank should get on the front foot and do what markets and economists know is an almost certain rate cut.

Inflation is well within the target. Indeed, should the inflation figures for the first three months of this year be only slightly below average, the official CPI risks falling below 2%.

“The risks of the economy slowing more than anticipated are now heightened due to the Trump tariffs,” said Greg Jericho, Chief Economist at The Australia Institute.

“The Reserve Bank was wrong not to cut rates on Tuesday. The Australia Institute has been calling for those cuts to help bolster spending and deliver relief to households who have suffered from price rises that are not of their own doing.

“Waiting until nearly the end of May is far too long. The RBA should be nimble enough to realise that the tariffs levied by the USA are an unprecedented move that is already sending shockwaves through the world’s economy.

“It should get out in front and cut rates now rather than wait for Australia’s economy to be damaged further.”

JUAREZ, Mexico – On New Year’s Eve 2020, as President-elect Joe Biden was at home in Delaware celebrating his imminent move into the White House, a mob of some 300 Cubans stormed out of Juárez, Mexico, in a mad banzai charge over one of the international bridges toward El Paso, Texas. 

They swept past Mexican border guards, leapt pell-mell the wrong way over Mexican pay turnstiles, and sprinted for America in a crisscrossing stampede through traffic over the bridge lanes.

But alas, the outgoing Donald Trump was still in office, and his U.S. Customs and Border Protection Mobile Field Force, already riot-ready and waiting behind heavy concrete blocks tipped by concertina wire, stopped the migrant charge cold. Bunched up behind the barricades, the foiled mob loosed a telling chant: 

“Bi-den! Bi-den! Bi-den! Bi-den! Bi-den!”

“They should let us pass. We are calling out to Mexico and the U.S. and to Biden, the new U.S. president, to remind him of the presidential campaign promises he made, to make him aware we are here,” said one of them, Raul Pino Gonzalez of Havana, to a Cuban news reporter. 

IBR and Metro effectively admit critics are right about problems with their traffic modeling

The real traffic problems on I-5 are outside the IBR project area, and won’t be solved by the $7.5 billion project

The documented errors in traffic modeling undercut the case for this megaproject, and show it would make traffic and pollution worse and would be a tragic waste of resources.

In October, the Just Crossing Alliance released a scathing report from national traffic expert Norm Marshall, finding that the traffic modeling for the proposed $7.5 billion Interstate Bridge project is badly flawed, and that the project will do nothing to relieve chronic congestion in I-5, because the critical bottleneck lies outside the project area.  As Marshall said succinctly:

“The congestion is caused by bottlenecks to the south—at North Lombard in the southbound a.m. peak and at Victory Boulevard in the p.m. northbound peak, and there is no possibility that widening the bridge can address those problems.”

The American Mind’s ‘Editorial Roundtable’ podcast is a weekly conversation with Ryan Williams, Spencer Klavan, and Mike Sabo devoted to uncovering the ideas and principles that drive American political life. Stream here or download from your favorite podcast host.

Task Force Dragging On | The Roundtable Ep. 261

Full preferential voting is a proud Coalition reform – one that benefits every political persuasion

Compulsory voting and full preferential voting make up the backbone of Australian democracy, and protect us from voter suppression and disengagement seen in other countries. We owe both to the parties of the centre-right, what would become the Liberal–National Coalition.

Compulsory voting ensures that most Australians participate in elections. It removes the incentive for nasty campaigns to demoralise people so they do not bother to vote at all and deliberate maladministration to make voting so unpleasant for targeted groups that turnout is suppressed.

Both deliberate voter suppression and poor voter turnout are seen in countries without compulsory voting.

The reform was introduced federally in 1924 via a private member’s bill from the Nationalist Party reformer HJM Payne, nine years after a conservative government adopted it in Queensland. In the 1922 election, voter turnout was just under 60%; In 1925 – the first under compulsory voting – it rose to over 90%.

Why full preferential voting ensures your vote can’t be ‘wasted’

As for preferential voting, its great benefit is that it ensures that Australians cannot “waste” their vote. Under full preferential voting, Australians number every candidate according to their preference.

When newspapers began shutting down in big numbers a decade ago, it was hoped that moving online would broaden news diversity and ownership.

Sadly, the opposite has happened.

A new Australia Institute Discussion Paper reveals that many newspapers have moved online in name only.

It also found:

• 11 out of Australia’s 20 biggest cities have just one daily or weekly print newspaper.
• Five of Australia’s eight capital cities have no competition in print news.
• In 2008, there were just over 500 newspapers in Australia. In the following decade 106 shut.
• The COVID pandemic was a mass-extinction event for Australian newspapers, with a further net decline of 184.
• In 2024, 29 Australian Local Government Areas lacked a single local news outline, either in print or online.

“The vast majority of newspapers which stopped printing and told readers they were moving online have become little more than a social media page and subsection of a capital city newspaper website,” said Stephen Long, Senior Fellow and Contributing Editor at The Australia Institute.

“There are now many towns with no news outlet since the local paper shut down.

“That’s been a disaster for local journalism and local storytelling.

“Former Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull was one of those who said newspapers moving online would lead to additional news diversity and avenues to competition.

“In the ten years since, the opposite has happened.

The Trump administration, including Elbridge Colby, who is soon to be confirmed as head of policy at the US Defence Department, is now telling Australia it needs to spend 3% of GDP on the military. That would be quite a large increase from what Australia currently spends, but rather than push back, both major political parties are fully in step with the view that Australia needs to spend more boosting our military.

The Treasurer, Jim Chalmers told reporters, “We’re taking defence spending from about 2 per cent of our economy to more than 2.3 per cent in the course of the next decade or so.” The Coalition also seems to be considering an advance on this position and lifting the military budget to 2.5 per cent of GDP by 2029.

The budget papers explain just how much is being spent on both the ongoing military spending, as well as the capital investment.

For the capital investment, the budget papers give both “net capital investment” as well as “purchases of non-financial assets”. The main difference is that the former is adjusted for depreciation and amortisation, while purchases of non-financial assets are not adjusted. There really is no good reason for deducting depreciation and amortisation. They are both rather meaningless concepts when it comes to military assets – is anyone really caring about the decline in the commercial value of the tanks the army has? Moreover, almost all discussions of the budget balance etc are based on cash accounting, which excludes depreciation.

On this episode of Dollars & Sense, Greg and Hayden discuss Trump’s tariffs, the Reserve Bank’s magic 8-ball monetary policy, and why minimum wage increases don’t drive up inflation.

This discussion was recorded on Thursday 3 April 2025 and things may have changed since recording.

Order What’s the Big Idea? 32 Big Ideas for a Better Australia now, via the Australia Institute website.

Host: Greg Jericho, Chief Economist, the Australia Institute and Centre for Future Work // @grogsgamut

Host: Hayden Starr, Digital Media Manager, the Australia Institute // @haydenstarr

Show notes:

Australia Institute Live from Amy Remeikis

‘You never know what you’re gonna get: Australians will have to wait until after the election to see if there’s an interest rate cut’ by Greg Jericho, Guardian Australia (March 2025)

Updated analysis by the Centre for Future Work at The Australia Institute reveals that a fair and appropriate increase to the minimum wage, and accompanying increases to award rates, would not have a significant effect on inflation.

The analysis examines the correlation between minimum wage increases and inflation going back to 1990, and finds no consistent link between minimum wage increases and inflation.

It also reveals that such an increase to award wages could be met with only a small reduction in profit margins.

The report, authored by Greg Jericho, based on previous work by both he and Jim Stanford, finds that an increase to the National Minimum Wage and award wages of between 5.8% and 9.2% in the Fair Work Commissions’ Annual Wage Review, due in June, is required to restore the real buying power of low-paid workers to pre-pandemic trends.

The report also finds that this would not significantly affect headline inflation.

James Hankins proposes a guest worker program that would address a half-century of shortcomings in American mass immigration policy. In its rare combination of hardheadedness and empathy, his argument calls to mind Victor Davis Hanson’s 2003 memoir/essay Mexifornia. Hankins is writing neither for economists nor for international lawyers, but for people who actually live in America and wish to do right by their neighbors, including the most recently arrived among them. This is going to be difficult.

We should be clear what Hankins means by “guest worker.” Aren’t illegal immigrants guest workers already? They are guests, after a fashion, and they do work. The expression “guest worker” means something different. Though the specifics can vary from country to country, the term means someone who is in the country where he works on sufferance. A guest worker has the right to work, but not necessarily the right to stay or become a citizen. Guest worker is an intermediate category between citizen and foreigner.

Hankins argues that elaborating such a special status for people would fix a few aspects of the present system that are especially unfair and perverse. By definition, illegal migrants do not belong here legally, but after long residence they may well belong here, and only here, culturally. What is more, their American-born children belong here unambiguously.

This interview is also available on podcast platforms and Rumble.

The internet, from its inception, was created to be a tool of mass surveillance. It was developed first as a counterinsurgency tool for the Vietnam War and the rest of the Global South, but like many devices of foreign policy naturally it made its way back to U.S. soil. Yasha Levine, in his book Surveillance Valley: The Secret Military History of the Internet, chronicles the linear history of the internet’s birth at the Pentagon to its now ubiquitous use in all aspects of modern life. He joins host Chris Hedges on this episode of The Chris Hedges Report to explain the reality of the internet’s history.

It’s a reminder that despite women making up half the population, men outnumber women in most Australian parliaments and most party rooms.

Ten years ago the Liberal and Labor parties set the same target for women’s representation: 50% of parliamentarians to be women by 2025, this year.

While the Labor Party meets that target, the Liberal Party is far short of it.

When The Australia Institute crunched the numbers last year, male Liberal parliamentarians outnumbered female Liberal parliamentarians more than two to one.

The Liberal Party used to lead on women’s representation. Eight of the first 10 female federal MPs and Senators were Liberals.

Gough Whitlam’s “It’s time” win in 1972 included 93 male MPs and Senators – and not a single woman.

While things soon improved (it was not possible for them to get worse), it would be another three decades before the Labor Party was consistently more gender-representative than the Liberals at the federal level.

Nor were early Liberals opposed to quotas. As former Liberal senator Judith Troeth notes, “from 1944 the Liberal Party had reserved 50 per cent of the Victorian Division’s executive positions for women”.

The argument that quotas do not allow women to be selected on “merit” is facile: Coalition Cabinets always have a quota for National MPs.

For more details, see last year’s article here.

The triumphal arch holds a very important place in the annals of Western architecture and urbanism. In Roman times it played a lofty honorific role, even though most Roman arches commemorated civic achievements and personages rather than military victories. The freestanding monumental arch was a syncretic creation, structurally derived from Etruscan gateways and decoratively enriched with Hellenistic architectural and sculptural forms. Its distinctive presence, which accommodated an astonishing variety in massing and detail, enriched towns and cities across the Roman empire, from Spain to Syria.

The monumental arch should be regarded as a universal entity—eminently appropriate, one would think, to a universal nation like these United States. The late, great historian of imperial Roman architecture, William L. MacDonald, noted how the arch corresponds to the classical concept of human proportions as delineated in Leonardo da Vinci’s Vitruvian Man, in which a male figure is inscribed within an overlapping circle and square. The impost or “springing” of the opening within the arch corresponds, MacDonald noted, to the Vitruvian Man’s arms extended directly outward, while the curvilinear opening itself corresponds to his arms sweeping upward. The arch’s geometry thus addresses us as embodied beings. You can’t get more universal than that.

The PBS is, literally, a life saver for Australian families.

The Australia Institute has compared the staggering difference between the prices Australians and Americans pay for some of the most common medicines in the world.

For example, Atorvastatin – a cholesterol pill which is among the top ten most prescribed drugs in Australia – is 125 times more expensive in the US. Australians pay $21.07 for a prescription of Atorvastatin. Americans are slugged $2,628.39 for the same medication.

A commonly used tablet for high blood pressure, Lisinopril, is almost 25 times more expensive in the US than in Australia.

More than 10 million Salbutamol asthma puffers are prescribed or sold over the counter in Australia each year. For every $30 Australians spend on these puffers, Americans are charged $50.

He and Bridget McKenzie say they will work out which jobs need to be cut when they are in government.

Australians – particularly the thousands who would lose their jobs – deserve better than a slogan without a shred of evidence that it will achieve anything.

Australia Institute research shows:

• The Australian Public Service is not large in historical terms or by any international comparison.
• Keeping public service employment numbers low is not efficient. Experience shows service delivery suffers and/or money is spent on contractors, consultants and labour hire workers to meet demand.
• When the Albanese government took office, there was recognised under-investment in the public service. More staff were needed.
• Underinvestment in the Australian Public Service was due to previous governments keeping public service numbers artificially low by placing a cap on staffing.

“Public service bashing without any detail is nothing more than cheap, nasty politics,” said Fiona Macdonald, Director of The Australia Institute’s Centre for Future Work.

“Data from Services Australia reveals the recruitment of 5000 staff between 2023 and 2024 cut call waiting times to Centrelink by six minutes and calls to Medicare by nine minutes.

“It also resulted in cutting processing times for Paid Parental Leave claims from 25 days to four days, Job Seeker claims from 22 days to six days and online Medicare claims from 11 days down to two days.

On this episode of Follow the Money, Australia Institute economists Matt Grudnoff and Jack Thrower join Ebony Bennett to discuss the Australian economy and the federal election campaign.

This discussion was recorded on Tuesday 1 April 2025 and things may have changed.

Order What’s the Big Idea? 32 Big Ideas for a Better Australia now, via the Australia Institute website.

Guest: Matt Grudnoff, Senior Economist, the Australia Institute // @mattgrudnoff

Guest: Jack Thrower, Research Economist, the Australia Institute // @jack-thrower

Host: Ebony Bennett, Deputy Director, the Australia Institute // @ebonybennett

Show notes:

Raising revenue right: Better tax ideas for the 48th Parliament by Greg Jericho, the Australia Institute (March 2025)

Our research has shown that minimum and award wage increases have no impact on inflation.

Those on the minimum wage are the poorest paid workers in Australia and they deserve to see their living standards improve.

The cost of living pressures of the past three years have hurt those on low incomes the most because the biggest price rises have been on necessities like food.

“Those on award wages have seen their real wage fall by nearly 4% since 2020 and they deserve a wage increase that will restore their living standards,” said Greg Jericho, Chief Economist at The Australia Institute.

“It is not surprising that business groups are arguing for a wage rise below inflation because that is what they always do.

“A decent wage rise for Australia’s poorest workers will not fuel inflation; it will only ensure those workers are able to keep their heads above water.”

The post Minimum wage increase would not impact inflation appeared first on The Australia Institute.

Last week, I published an essay at Tech Policy Press: We Need an Interventionist Mindset. This essay is targeted at those who are building or governing tech systems, including AI. I am so grateful that they let me publish it there. If you don't mind clicking on the link, do so to give the great people at TPP some link love. But I've also included it below just in case this is the only way you'll read it. <grin>

In other news, I was elected as a fellow to AAAS (the American Association for the Advancement of Science). w000t!

Yet the policies enjoy widespread support once people are made aware of them.

The results pose big questions about the ability of government to communicate its record in an era of fractured media and news avoidance.

In the poll of 2009 Australians, respondents were given a list of nine policies (including one fake) and asked to answer whether each policy was implemented by the Albanese government.

They were then asked if they supported or opposed each policy.

The results show:

• 84% of Australians support a wage increase for aged care workers and creating a National Anti-Corruption Commission, but only 39% (aged care pay rise) and 20% (creation of NACC) were aware of these reforms.
• Legislating a social media ban for under 16-year-olds is the only reform that most Australians have heard of (55%).
• Each reform is supported by the majority of Australians.
• 12% of Australians incorrectly identified a national ban on native forest logging as an Albanese Government policy, which it is not. 71% support it – more support than for some real Albanese government policies.

“High levels of news avoidance and declining trust in mainstream media make it harder for governments to communicate their policies and achievements, posing issues for democracy,” said Stephen Long, Senior Fellow at The Australia Institute.

Let’s get this out of the way: My new book, The Last American Road Trip, is out today. This newsletter has 51,000 subscribers. Now if all 51,000 of you go out and buy the book, that would be terrific! I would like to stop promoting it and get back to what I love: writing.

You can order The Last American Road Trip at:

Bookshop: The Last American Road Trip a book by Sarah Kendzior - Bookshop.org US
Left Bank Books (signed!): SIGNED Last American Road Trip by Sarah Kendzior | Left Bank Books
Barnes and Noble: The Last American Road Trip: A Memoir by Sarah Kendzior, Hardcover | Barnes & Noble®
Amazon: The Last American Road Trip: A Memoir: Kendzior, Sarah: 9781250879882: Amazon.com: Books

Or get it at your local independent bookseller! Independent booksellers are important bastions of free speech and civic engagement, especially in these times.

The United States needs immigrants. Americans aged 65 or older will nearly double to about 50% of the population from today’s 27% due to declining fertility and rising longevity. The dire warnings we hear about the Social Security and Medicare systems will come true with a vengeance. Immigration, to be sure, is not the only remedy for our demographic problems—we can incentivize child-raising and extend the average working life—but it is an indispensable one. Working-age adult immigrants who pay into the Social Security and Medicare trust funds help keep these systems solvent.

The fall in America’s fertility rate stems from cultural and religious shifts that cannot be undone quickly. In a January 10, 2022 contribution to The American Mind, I reviewed the statistical evidence that the decline in our fertility can be explained by the attenuation of religion in the United States.

By Fernando Monge, Ruth Puttick, and Rainer Kattel

Why do some cities seem to tackle complex challenges more effectively than others? Is Helsinki really able to address housing issues more nimbly than Sydney? If so, why? Or why does Cape Town excel in crisis response but not in addressing persistent problems like informal settlements? Our recently published research suggests that — at least in part — the answer lies not just in the cities themselves but in the broader environment in which they operate.