A thread left hanging from my previous post on F. A. Hayek entitled ‘What the heck’s going on with Hayek’s The Road to Serfdom?’ was the focus on international order, which entails Hayek’s assessment of the scalar problems of planning and his advocating the absorption of separate states in a federal organisation. The focus of Chapter 15 on international order in The Road to Serfdom is wide-ranging, addressing aspects of planning and including what Hayek refers to as ‘super-state’ or ‘super-national’ authority within an international system of states. Interesting positions are therefore reflected in this analysis on world-state formation that have been neglected within international theory. What does Hayek have to say that may interest approaches to the political economy of state formation and thinking on ‘the international’ today?
On Friday, we got the January CPI report. Headline year-over-year inflation came in at 2.4%, below the consensus expectation of 2.5%. On the surface, that looks like another step in the “inflation is cooling” narrative that has dominated over the past year.
But I want to explain why I don’t think this print changes the bigger picture—and why, from a business cycle and MMT perspective, we may actually be getting close to the point where inflation starts to reaccelerate.
More importantly, I want to walk through what this means for portfolios and asset positioning. Because if you wait for CPI to clearly turn higher before positioning for inflation, you’re probably already too late.
The Market Isn’t Fully Buying the “Cooling Inflation” Story
Here’s something interesting: even as CPI has cooled over the last year, assets that typically outperform in inflationary environments have been winning.
Moltbook is being treated as a novelty. A curious, Reddit-like forum where AI agents post about their users, trade productivity advice, and banter with one another in ways that feel playful, even endearing. Much of the public reaction has framed it as harmless fun, a glimpse of quirky machine behaviour rather than a serious development.
That interpretation is right to some extent, but also quite wrong with regard to what this represents.
Per Capita’s Director of Econometric Research and Analysis, Dr Michael D’Rosario, writes in his paper “Moltbook and the Moment We Let AI Act on People”.
By Meredith Eldridge, Director of Operations at Per Capita
We humans like to think that we are rational beings who make up our minds based on facts. Unfortunately for us, it is well-established that the vast majority of the time, people’s decisions are actually driven by emotion and subconscious mental shortcuts (see the work of Daniel Kahneman, Anat Shenker Osorio, Drew Westen, George Lakoff, and Sarah Stein Lubrano). This means that when people are deliberating social policy issues, facts and conscious reasoning play a smaller role than we might like.
We all have a Confirmation Bias, which means that if a new piece of information doesn’t fit with our current belief system, we are more likely to dismiss it as incorrect or unreliable rather than change our minds.
Israeli President Isaac Herzog’s visit was always going to deepen divisions within Australia, not heal them. Social cohesion can’t be built on a bedrock of police violence, criminalising protest, silencing dissent and ignoring international law.
Australia’s Jewish community needs comfort and support while they grieve the fifteen innocent lives lost in the Bondi massacre. But why not invite a religious leader to provide comfort instead of a deeply controversial political leader? The grief of the Palestinian community in Australia, who are mourning the deaths of tens of thousands of innocent civilians at the hands of Israel, was extended no such comfort or consideration by the Prime Minister or the NSW Premier in recent weeks.
Israel’s crimes in Gaza are monstrous and well-documented. The UN commission of inquiry found evidence of war crimes, crimes against humanity and genocidal intent by Israeli leaders and has recommended they be prosecuted.
He will equal Scott Morrison’s record of 1368 days on Thursday. On Friday, he’ll surpass him, leapfrogging both John Curtin and Morrison, to sit behind Paul Keating as the 12th longest-serving prime minister.
Short of his party moving against him, Albanese is almost certain to win another term as Prime Minister.
The Coalition is 28 seats behind. Even if there was a “thruplition” with One Nation, the Liberals, Nationals and Barnson would have to hold their existing 43 seats and win another 27 to take government.
And don’t expect that election to be held in 2028. New deputy leader Jane Hume was right last week when she said expected Albanese to take advantage of the Liberal Party’s decline and call an early election.
Labor is already eyeing off Forrest, La Trobe, Longman and Goldstein as potential seat gains. Bowman will be on the list.
The Liberals, or Nationals (depending on who wins that fight),will have a tough time holding on to Sussan Ley’s seat of Farrer, with One Nation on the march and a community independent having already shorn 10 points off Ley’s margin at the last election. It is very doubtful the Liberals or Nationals will run another woman in Farrer, which will leave the Coalition with just enough women in the lower house to fill a 2016 Honda Civic. That’ll be sure to arrest the number of women turning their back on the party!
The desire to bring new life into the world runs deep in human nature. We know instinctively that children are worthy of the greatest care, and that the mission of parents is among the noblest in life. If our natures did not tell us this so strongly, the pain of childbirth—with all the toil, trials, and heartbreak that follow—would never seem worth it.
The pain of unfulfilled desire for children runs equally and correspondingly deep. In Jewish and Christian Scripture, infertility is almost a byword for anguish, much as having children is a byword for joy, chief among the blessings of God (“Your wife shall be like a fruitful vine…” “The barren wife shall bear seven sons….”). From the beginning of our species to its present, the importance of raising and forming the next generation has been self-evident to all generations.
Media Release Number 2026-04: The Reserve Bank of Australia welcomes the announcement by the Treasurer appointing Professor Bruce Preston to the Monetary Policy Board.
This is not a post about politics or law. It is personal, a remembrance of a friend who died last night.
Ethan Posner and I went to law school together, at the University of Michigan. We started in the fall of 1986. Ethan was an east coast guy who found himself in the midwest for law school. Ethan was a big person, physically and personality-wise. He was smart, articulate, and willing to speak up right from the get go. He stood out.
I got to know Ethan especially well when a classmate of ours enlisted him, our friend Jonathan Foot, and me for a study group in the first semester. We would come with our outlines prepared, and spend hours debating hypotheticals, continuing discussions from class and from meals in the dining hall. Ethan would sometime resort to picking me up and turning me upside down. As I told him, I took this as conclusive proof that my arguments had defeated him.
Mary Amiti, Chris Flanagan, Sebastian Heise, and David E. Weinstein
Over the course of 2025, the average tariff rate on U.S. imports increased from 2.6 to 13 percent. In this blog post, we ask how much of the tariffs were paid by the U.S., using import data through November 2025. We find that nearly 90 percent of the tariffs’ economic burden fell on U.S. firms and consumers.
The helicopters had come in low over the Caribbean, running dark. The Delta Force operators on board were well-rehearsed. By 3:29 AM, it was over. Thirty-two Cuban bodyguards lay dead in the compound. Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores were in flex cuffs, hustled onto a transport aircraft bound for New York. At Mar-a-Lago, President Trump watched the operation unfold in real time with his national security team. It was January 3—exactly 36 years to the day since American forces had extracted military dictator Manuel Noriega from Panama City.
To the general public, the operation in Caracas may have seemed to come out of the blue. But in fact it was only the latest episode—the most dramatic one yet—in a 60-year war that most Americans have never known about. Our adversary in that war has been the Castro regime, which has been pursuing a project far more ambitious than the survival of Cuban socialism. Its goal has always been the revolutionary transformation of the entire Western Hemisphere—including the United States itself.
On this episode of Dollars & Sense, Greg and Elinor discuss the persistent rumours of changes to the capital gains tax discount, why government spending isn’t to blame for the latest inflation increase, and the impact of the federal government’s five per cent deposit scheme on lending figures (and don’t discuss wages as promised last week, cus Greg can’t read a calendar).
This discussion was recorded on Thursday 12 February 2026.
Last month, Democrat Abigail Spanberger was sworn in as the 75th governor of the Commonwealth of Virginia. With Democrats now in control of the General Assembly and the governor’s mansion, Virginia has become the parade ground for the Left’s most radical, destructive, and aggressive ambitions: constitutional amendments for abortion, landmark gun-grabbing legislation, and an outrageous gerrymandering scheme that would make Illinois blush.
Spanberger also wants to reshape Virginia’s institutions of higher education. Two more odious bills have slinked their way before the House and into committee: HB1374 and HB1377. The former dissolves the Virginia Military Institute’s Board of Visitors and transfers its governance to Virginia State University. The latter, and more pernicious, creates the VMI Advisory Task Force “to determine whether [VMI] should continue to be a state-sponsored institution of higher education.”
The Left’s assault on VMI is nothing new. Cries of racism, sexism, and Confederate sympathies brought reporters to the small campus in Lexington, Virginia, during the woke wave of 2020, where they conjured stories to fit the cultural narrative. The upheaval resulted in the renaming of VMI buildings and the removal of Stonewall Jackson’s statue that had dominated the campus for decades.
The American Mind’s ‘Editorial Roundtable’ podcast is a weekly conversation with Ryan Williams, Spencer Klavan, and Mike Sabo devoted to uncovering the ideas and principles that drive American political life. Stream here or download from your favorite podcast host.
Bad Bunny, Worse Politics | The Roundtable Ep. 304
Isaac Herzog has been credibly accused of incitement to commit genocide and, while his is largely a ceremonial role, he is the head of state of a nation credibly accused of genocide, whose leaders are wanted on war crime charges.
Raising any of these legitimate issues brought more lectures from political leaders about needing to “bring down the temperature” and a reminder that Herzog is here to comfort members of Australia’s grief-stricken and traumatised Jewish communities after the horrific Bondi terror attack.
But two things can be true at the same time. In this case, while there were Australian Jewish people who sought comfort from “their head of state”, there were also Australian Jewish people who found no comfort in Herzog’s visit, who found community in people protesting the invitation while Palestinians are still being killed by Israeli forces.
It was 13 years from the formation of the Australian Labor Party to when then-leader Chris Watson was invited to form government.
His four months as prime minister was spent at the helm of the first democratic socialist government in the world. But his impact on modern Labor looms large, having helped establish the solidarity pledge for Labor caucus members, which ultimately forced his own exit during the 1916 conscription split.
Since then, caucus solidarity – the rule that once Labor’s political arm has made a decision, all caucus members are bound to it regardless of personal views – has been treated as both a threat and novelty by party outsiders. It has always been thus.
“Most electoral contests are determined by that large body of more or less intelligent voters who do not attach themselves permanently to any political party. For the most part they are patriotic citizens, striving earnestly to approve what is best in the programs of rival candidates for their electoral favours.
“A large body of these electors has naturally been attracted by the progressive and national character of the Labor platform, and in increasing numbers have given the Labor Party a qualified support.
On this episode of Follow the Money, Kumi Naidoo, South African human rights and climate advocate, joins Ebony Bennett to discuss the need for a fossil fuel non-proliferation treaty, why it’s past time for the Australia government to stop coal and gas expansion, and his new Vantage Point essay, What We Owe the Water.
This episode was recorded on Monday 9 February 2026.
In the early hours of January 3, 2026, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and the Venezuelan first lady Cilia Flores were kidnapped and flown to the US through a US military operation which involved attacks on the Venezuelan military bases in Fuerte Tiuna in the Venezuelan capital of Caracas and four other key strategic bases. According to the Venezuelan Attorney General Tarek William Saab, 100 people, security personnel, soldiers and civilians, were killed by US forces in the operation. No US lives were reported to be lost. Delcy Rodríguez, formerly Venezuelan oil minister and vice-president, has since been sworn in as interim president.
When the history of the Christian Classical Education movement is written, the central figure will surely be Pastor Douglas Wilson. The Association of Classical Christian Schools, which he founded, includes even more member schools than Pastor Wilson has written books—and that is saying something. Over the past half-century, through the institutions and associations he has created, the essays, articles, and polemics he has written, and the sheer force of his personality, Pastor Wilson has helped guide the educations of tens of thousands of Americans.
In 1991, Pastor Wilson published Recovering the Lost Tools of Learning: An Approach to Distinctively Christian Education. This book remains the blueprint for Christian Classical Education across America. Its title was inspired by “The Lost Tools of Learning,” a 1947 lecture by Dorothy L. Sayers (1893-1957). Outside Pastor Wilson’s movement, Sayers is mostly known, if at all, as the author of some moderately entertaining detective stories. Her translations of Dante for Penguin Classics are still in print, but so dated as to seem older than the medieval original.
The report, part of a submission to a federal parliamentary inquiry, has found the Pacific Australia Labour Mobility (PALM)) scheme is so lopsided it could damage diplomatic and economic relationships, rather than enhance them.
Similarly, the expansion of the scheme to fill shortages in the health and aged care sectors is luring medical professionals away from the health systems of workers’ home nations, leaving them desperately under-resourced.
The scheme generates around a billion dollars a year, yet just $184 million makes it back to the homelands of workers.
The report makes three recommendations:
Ensuring a fair share of money makes it back to workers and their families.
Improving the rights and conditions of workers, to ensure they’re not at risk of modern slavery.
Re-examining the expansion of the scheme – originally designed to fill seasonal agricultural roles, like fruit picking – into Australia’s care sectors.
“When the PALM scheme was established, it was lauded as a win-win for Australia and its participating neighbours,” said Morgan Harrington, Research Manager at The Australia Institute.
“But more than three quarters of the money earned in Australia stays in Australia. This is desperately unfair and not in the spirit of what the scheme was set up to do.
“These workers are now a vital part of our economy, particularly in rural Australia. Without them, our meat processing, fruit picking, aged and health care sectors would be in trouble.
On this episode of After America, Ben Doherty, Guardian Australia senior reporter covering international affairs, joins Dr Emma Shortis to discuss the mass layoffs at the Washington Post, the lack of transparency around the AUKUS submarine deal, and why the Australian government still has its head in the sand over Trump.
This discussion was recorded on Friday 6 February 2026.
Taylor Swift’s recent hit album The Life of a Showgirl was characteristically catchy yet ideologically confusing. It’s a picture of a woman being torn between the life of a girlboss and the life of a wife—and possibly mother.
Deeply in love with her fiancé, Travis Kelce, Swift’s album unsurprisingly features her most sexual song to date, while other tracks reflect on her time in show business, with a mix of triumph and tragedy. Recorded during the European leg of her wildly successful Eras Tour, the album is in many ways an ode to the career she loves. But it is also a love letter filled with lyrics that are equal parts profound and a little corny, pointing toward a life in which Swift could leave the showgirl era behind altogether.
Take this set of stanzas from Wi$h Li$t, a song that mocks the soulless hustle of Hollywood and the music industry, contrasting it with the quiet happiness of family life in the suburbs.
The Planning Amendment (Better Decisions Made Faster) Bill 2025 passed both houses of parliament last week. The amendment will streamline building approvals, including allowing low-risk building permits to be processed faster. Changes also include a provision that enables councils and state government to make the use or development of land conditional on the provision of an affordable housing contribution as long as:
the relevant planning scheme identifies a need for affordable housing and
the application exceeds a dwelling number or development value threshold.
This is a promising change that lays the groundwork for inclusionary zoning (IZ) – a land use planning intervention that either mandates or incentivises the delivery of social or affordable housing or in-lieu financial contributions as part of market rate housing development. This is something local councils, industry leaders, social housing and homelessness experts and researchers have been calling for for years.1
With the correct policy settings, IZ has proven an extremely effective approach to delivering affordable housing. In England, inclusionary zoning delivered 27,400 affordable homes in 2023-2024, accounting for 44% of all affordable homes built in England that year.2 Over 110,000 affordable homes have been produced in the US through IZ programs.3
Kicking off the year, members are invited to hear from Rayna Fahey who has stepped into the role of Executive Director at Prosper Australia. As a long term advocate for housing, land policy, and making our cities fairer, Rayna will share a bit about our priorities for the year — from land value capture to […]
Today, for example, I imagine ringing her up, telling her I’m back at work on The Gauntlet, writing away. She always loved to hear that.
“Yes,” I’d tell her, “I’m writing about how devastated I’ve been since you died.”
My mom died on January 3, 2026.
A bunch of doctors gathered in the hallway outside her room to thank her for being an organ donor, reading a tribute written by my father. The doctors learned about her master’s degrees in math and music, and how she conducted our church choir for decades. They listened patiently as they learned she taught college and high school math classes for many years, how she took up painting after retirement, how she was a loving mother to two children: my brother Kevin, and me.
I was here in DC, still homebound, watching via Facetime on Kevin’s phone. A dear friend lay in bed with me while I sobbed, holding my hand. They removed all the life support. She breathed for one more hour.
Since January 3rd, I’ve read Crying in H Mart by Michelle Zauner, The Mercy Papers by Robin Romm, A Heart that Works by Robb Delaney, A Very Easy Death by Simone de Beauvoir, The Joy Luck Club by Amy Tan, and The Year of Magical Thinking by Joan Didion.
One year ago, President Trump signed an executive order directing his administration to develop policy recommendations to protect access to in vitro fertilization (IVF), expand its availability, and lower its cost to patients. Then in October, the administration announced additional measures to lower costs for IVF and common fertility drugs and explore pathways like expanded employer benefits or excepted benefit categories for assisted reproductive technologies. While this included joint efforts across federal agencies to make this costly intervention more affordable, the administration stopped short of imposing broad new federal mandates for insurance coverage or direct government funding of IVF.
The American Mind’s ‘Editorial Roundtable’ podcast is a weekly conversation with Ryan Williams, Spencer Klavan, and Mike Sabo devoted to uncovering the ideas and principles that drive American political life. Stream here or download from your favorite podcast host.
The Mini-Bus, the Short Bus, and the Clown Car | The Roundtable Ep. 303
The Wrap: Australia doesn’t need a strong Opposition, but it does need a strong Parliament
“Australia is an ‘elective dictatorship’, an ominous term coined in the 1990s by David Hamer. Mr Hamer was a Liberal parliamentarian who served in both houses of Parliament (he was an MP and a senator). His point was that, between elections, the Government’s power is barely constrained by law or the Constitution.
“Instead, the Government is constrained by the Parliament. However benign or well-meaning a Government, democracy depends on the option for the Parliament to intervene to stop abuse of power,” writes Bill Browne.
Frontline organisations responding to Australia’s housing crisis are operating at breaking point, reporting sustained increases in demand, escalating complexity, and diminishing capacity to help, according to Everybody’s Home.
The national housing campaign’s ‘No Way Out’ sector survey of dozens of frontline organisations found nine in ten (89%) reported increased workloads over the past year, while almost all (98%) expect demand for their services to rise further in 2026.
More than four in five (82%) organisations reported the housing crisis is either significantly affecting their daily operations or severely threatening the effectiveness of their programs.
The crisis is increasingly affecting the workforce itself, with seven in ten frontline organisations (71%) reporting increased stress or burnout among their workforce, while more than three quarters (78%) said housing insecurity is impacting their staff or volunteers.
Almost three-quarters (72%) said the increased workload has contributed to staff turnover in the past year, and more than one quarter of respondents (27%) said they’d considered leaving their role due to workload or housing-related pressures.
Governor Michele Bullock provides an update on the Bank’s operations and activities, before she and senior colleagues answer questions from the Committee members.
Shortly before Christmas, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Undersecretary of State Sarah Rogers made a dramatic announcement: the U.S. was placing five individuals described as “agents of the global censorship-industrial complex” on a visa sanctions list in an effort to curb foreign suppression of Americans. The undoubted headliner of the group is Thierry Breton, the former E.U. Internal Market Commissioner who spearheaded efforts to enforce the E.U.’s Digital Services Act (DSA) during the last years of his tenure in the European Commission. The list also includes the two managing directors of the hitherto relatively obscure German organization HateAid, which serves as a so-called “trusted flagger” under the DSA.
