The Australia Institute Feed Items

New APRA figures show the impact the Reserve Bank’s program of official interest rate increases has had on the Australian economy.

From the low of 0.10% in April 2022, official interest rates have increased by 425 basis points to 4.35%. Thankfully the Reserve Bank has this month kept rates steady, but the damage to the economy has already been done.

Since the March quarter of 2022, quarterly interest payments to the banks from the rest of the Australian economy went from $25.8 billion to $78.95 billion in March 2024. If we annualise these figures that means there has been a $212 billion increase in payments to the banks since official rates were increased.

Since that low of March 2022, each 25 basis point increase in the official interest rate increased banks’ annualised interest charges by around $12 billion. For comparison that is slightly more than the Australian government is budgeted to spend in this financial year on support for carers.

Over the same period, quarterly payments to the banks for home loans increased from $13.5 billion to $32.8 billion. The increase of $19.3 billion per quarter equates to just over $77 billion per annum. It also means that each 25 basis point increase in the official rate increases annualised interest charges on home loans by $4.5 billion per annum. Each 100-basis point increase increased the banks’ annualised interest charges on home loans by $18 billion.

Are the home affairs and immigration portfolios a poisoned chalice for the new minister, Tony Burke? And are the opposition’s attacks on the government over the economy having an impact ahead of the election? On this episode of Follow the Money, we discuss the latest in federal politics with Paul Bongiorno.

This discussion was recorded on Tuesday 6 August 2024 and things may have changed since recording.

Guest: Paul Bongiorno, columnist, The Saturday Paper and The New Daily // @PaulBongiorno

Host: Greg Jericho, Chief Economist, the Australia Institute // @GrogsGamut

Theme music: Pulse and Thrum; additional music by Blue Dot Sessions

We’d love to hear your feedback on this series, so send in your questions, comments or suggestions for future episodes to podcasts@australiainstitute.org.au.

In the wake of the Reserve Bank’s latest forecasts, Treasurer Jim Chalmers is facing calls to cut back infrastructure investment to relieve inflation pressures and ramp up housing construction – cutting back on fossil fuels is an easy first step to address this problem.

Key Points:

Patricia Karvelas peppered the Treasurer with questions this morning, asking whether there is there anything the government can do to slow “non-essential projects” to “allow flow back to housing”.

The short answer is yes. There is one particular kind of infrastructure the government can cut back on first: fossil fuels.

Every time the government approves new coal mines or gas expansions, it’s giving the go ahead to projects that soak up labour and equipment — taking resources away from the construction of essential infrastructure like dwellings, roads, and railways.

Some $41 billion worth of new fossil fuel projects are gobbling up the construction supply chain.

Recent research by the Australia Institute using official government data has found that fossil fuel projects make up 53% of the total funding committed to resource and energy infrastructure across Australia.

Woodside, for example, has committed an estimated $18 billion to oil and gas projects in Western Australia; Santos $4.3 billion to the Barossa gas project in the NT. Further billions are flowing to coal projects in NSW and Queensland.

Washington DC-based international policy expert Dr Nancy Okail joins Dr Emma Shortis on this episode of After America to discuss America’s relationships with China and the Middle East, and possibility a more progressive approach to foreign policy led by Kamala Harris.

This discussion was recorded on Friday 2 August 2024 and things may have changed since recording.

Guest: Nancy Okail, President and CEO, Centre for International Policy // @NancyGEO

Host: Emma Shortis, Senior Research for International & Security Affairs, the Australia Institute // @EmmaShortis

Show notes:

‘Ukraine and Israel and the Two Joe Bidens’ by Matthew Duss, The New Republic (December 2023)

‘The Killing of a Hamas Leader Is Part of a Larger War’ by Matthew Duss and Nancy Okail, The New York Times (August 2024)

Theme music: Blue Dot Sessions

The wording of the Western Australian Government’s fact sheet on petroleum resources exemplifies the way in which the country’s resources are described to the public:

“Petroleum resources are owned by the community and a royalty is a purchase price for the resource. The community expects a fair return for the loss of its non-renewable petroleum resources.”

This rhetoric does not reflect reality. While the community might expect a fair return for the loss of its resources, in many cases it gets no return at all, fair or otherwise.

Australia has ten facilities that export gas as liquified natural gas (LNG). Six of these projects—both of the Northern Territory’s facilities and four of the five operating in Western Australia—pay no royalties, either state or federal. These facilities represent 56% of Australia’s gas export capacity. This means that all the gas exported from the NT, and more than half the gas exported from Australia, is given for free to the companies exporting it.

The monetary value of this gas is enormous. The total value of LNG exports over the last four years is estimated at $265 billion Australia-wide, $37 billion of which was exported from the NT. All of the NT’s LNG exports were royalty-free and Australia’s royalty-free exports totalled $149 billion. To put this another way: in the last four years alone, Australians have given away the gas that made $149 billion worth of LNG, for free.

This “curtailment” is carried out to maintain grid stability by preventing an oversupply of electricity at a time when there is simply not enough demand for it.

Analysis of NEM data suggests that annual forced curtailment for 2023-24 was around 4,000 gigawatt-hours (GWh). This represents around 9.3% of Australia’s total annual wind and utility solar generation.

A possible source of flexible demand for this generation is residential off-peak hot water. Off-peak systems account for around 30% of Australian household hot water systems. They are designed to use power overnight, a period when electricity demand has historically been lowest, but during which coal-fired generators have kept producing electricity regardless.

Today, off-peak times could be redefined, and off-peak systems reorganised to consume renewable electricity during the middle of the day, when there is an abundant supply of renewable electricity. Research by the Institute for Sustainable Futures at the University of Technology Sydney estimates that switching off-peak hot water to the middle of the day could have provided around 4,000 GWh of flexible demand in 2020—coincidentally, almost the exact level of renewable curtailment in 2023–24.

This one simple change could redirect much of the clean, cheap renewable energy that is currently being wasted, or “curtailed”, by the National Energy Market during the day.

Key Findings:

• Annual forced curtailment for 2023-24 was around 4,000 gigawatt-hours (GWh).
• This represents around 9.3% of Australia’s total generation from wind and utility solar.
• Historically, Off-peak hot water systems have been set to operate at night, but they could be reconfigured to consume electricity during the middle of the day, when there is an abundant supply of renewable electricity.
• Switching off-peak hot water to the middle of the day could provide around 4,000 GWh of flexible demand, almost the exact current level of renewable curtailment.
• This could save up to $6 billion in household electricity and energy costs by 2040.

“The fact that we in Australia choose to waste cheap and clean renewable energy on a regular basis is absurd,” said Dr Richard Denniss, Executive Director at the Australia Institute.

“While the persistent claims of a looming energy crisis and gas shortage ring out across the country, we are turning our back on nearly 10% of the current renewable capacity in our grid.

“The time for inflexible, expensive and polluting electricity from fossil fuels has come and gone. It is now up to the Federal Government to make the necessary changes that will allow Australians to properly access clean, cheap renewable energy.

The shots fired at Donald Trump at a rally in Pennsylvania on Saturday are being investigated as an assassination attempt of the former president and current Republican presidential nominee.

Assassination attempts on presidents and presidential nominees are littered throughout American history. What happened in Pennsylvania is horrifying, but sadly not surprising.

I’ve been really struck by how many senior political figures in the United States came out after the shooting and said political violence has no place in America. US President Joe Biden said violence of this kind is “unheard of” in the US.

That is pretty astounding. The United States was founded on political violence, and incidents of political violence mark its entire history.

In fact, Biden began his political career framing himself as the political heir to the murdered Kennedy brothers – President John F. Kennedy, who was assassinated in 1963, and Robert F. Kennedy, assassinated in 1968.

However, for this incident to occur in this moment, given the volatile nature of the presidential campaign so far and the deep divisions in the United States, is deeply concerning.

The Australia Institute surveyed a nationally representative sample of 1,014 Australians about whether they support public funding for political parties and candidates to run election campaigns and cover administrative costs.

The results show that:

• Three in five (60%) Australians oppose public funding of political parties and candidates. Only one in four (27%) Australians support public funding.
• A majority of voters for all political parties oppose public funding.
• Seven in ten (71%) Australians oppose increasing public funding for political parties and candidates. Only one in six (18%) Australians support increasing it.
• A majority of voters for all political parties oppose increasing public funding. Opposition was highest among voters for One Nation (92%), the Coalition (78%) and Other/Independent candidates (71%).
• Earlier polling research finds that Australians would be more likely to use an alternative public funding system, “democracy vouchers” (39% are likely), than to donate under the status quo (16% are likely).

The post Polling – Public funding for political parties and candidates appeared first on The Australia Institute.

The Wrap with Ebony Bennett

Nobel Prize-winning economist Professor Joseph E. Stiglitz kicked off his Australian tour this week and has well-and-truly hit the ground running.

There were full houses in Sydney and Hobart to see the former World Bank chief economist and best-selling author, who’s visiting Australia as a guest of the Australia Institute, as part of our 30th anniversary celebrations.

Here are three key takeaways from the first week of his tour:

1. Australia’s democratic institutions are the envy of the world

Mandatory, preferential voting and an independent electoral commission have helped Australia avoid some of the “perverse” outcomes seen in the United States, according to Professor Stiglitz.

“If the US had had rank order voting, Trump would not have been on the ballot in the first election in 2016.”

Professor @JosephEStiglitz unpacks three democratic institutions that Australia does better than the US.#auspol pic.twitter.com/5zY6zJ3HbS

— Australia Institute (@TheAusInstitute) July 30, 2024

Superannuation tax concessions are meant to encourage saving for retirement, but the system is being gamed to help the wealthiest avoid paying tax. Australia Institute Chief Economist Greg Jericho joins Ebony Bennett on this episode of Follow the Money to bust some super myths and discuss what a fairer system should look like.

This discussion was recorded on Tuesday 30 July 2024 and things may have changed since recording.

Guest: Greg Jericho, Chief Economist, the Australia Institute // @GrogsGamut

Host: Ebony Bennett, Deputy Director, the Australia Institute // @ebony_bennett

Show notes:

‘Who benefits? The high cost of super tax concessions’ by Minh Ngoc Le (June 2024)

‘Superannuation tax concessions are making inequality worse’ by Greg Jericho (July 2024)

Theme music: Pulse and Thrum; additional music by Blue Dot Sessions

You can see Professor Joseph E Stiglitz speak live in several cities across Australia as part of the Australia Institute’s 30th anniversary celebrations. Tickets are available via our website.

On this episode of Dollars & Sense, Greg and Elinor discuss Australia’s uncompetitive airline industry, the cost of privatising essential public services, and the latest inflation figures.

Greg Jericho is Chief Economist at the Australia Institute and the Centre for Future Work and popular columnist of Grogonomics with Guardian Australia. Each week on Dollars & Sense, Greg dives into the latest economic figures to explain what they can tell us about what’s happening in the economy, how it will impact you and where things are headed.

Host: Greg Jericho, Chief Economist, the Australia Institute // @GrogsGamut

Host: Elinor Johnston-Leek, Senior Content Producer, the Australia Institute // @ElinorJ_L

Theme music: Blue Dot Sessions

We’d love to hear your feedback on this series, so send in your questions, comments or suggestions for future episodes to podcasts@australiainstitute.org.au.

As a parent, I’m always careful to remind them that super powers are fun for pretending, but they are not real.

Unfortunately, it’s hard to teach this to kids when federal government ministers say things like “green hydrogen is at the heart of our vision for Australia as a…renewable energy superpower.”

SOCK! POW! KAZAAM!

As much as kids and ministers might like to play green hydrogen superpowers they should not be used when crossing the road or formulating tax and energy policy.

Which brings us to the federal government’s Hydrogen Production Tax Incentive, which was open for consultation until last Friday.

This program will see the Government subsidise eligible hydrogen production by $2 per kilogram. Budget documents (p68) give an estimated cost of “$6.7 billion over ten years from 2024–25 (and an average of $1.1 billion per year from 2034–35 to 2040–41).”

The FMAA aims to support investment in Australian value-added manufacturing initiatives relating to the renewable energy transition. While it remains to be legislated, the budget suggests the FMAA will entail approximately $23 billion of new public spending over ten years. The majority of this is accounted for by two new tax credits which incentivise private investment into domestic critical minerals processing and renewable hydrogen production. These credits are available from 2027 and, while currently uncapped, are estimated to entail $13.7 billion in public industrial support by 2035-35. Also notable is approximately $4.5 billion in new funding for the Australian Renewable Energy Agency (ARENA) across several new initiatives, providing grants, subsidies, and investment for the manufacturing and development of renewable technologies, including batteries and solar panels.

The average pay for the principal of an elite private school in Sydney is about $687,000 a year. At least four get a salary and benefits package worth over $900,000, and one of those is on over $1 million a year.

It took the leak of confidential data to find this out because, despite being heavily subsidised, private schools in most parts of Australia don’t have to tell anyone what they pay their headmasters. The Australian Charities and Not-for-profits Commission’s reporting requirements come close, but they don’t require schools to say how much they pay individual staff in particular positions.

Even if $600,000 is only a rough estimate, it’s a lot more than the principals of NSW’s public schools get. Their salaries – which are published by the NSW Government – range between $140,000 and $216,000 a year. Seek puts the average pay for a school principal in Australia at between $165,000 and $185,000 a year.

This pay gap is symptomatic of the widening inequality between the ‘haves’ and the ‘have nots’ of our education system.

The Victorian Electoral Matters Committee recommendations include:

• Truth in political advertising laws.
• Changes to how the Victorian upper house is elected.
  • The Committee acknowledges that “If group voting tickets were eliminated but the current structure of regions continued, major parties would likely be over-represented in the Upper House and there would likely be fewer minor parties and less diversity”.
• Prohibiting groups other than the Electoral Commission from distributing certain postal voter applications.
• Improving access to polling places for voters with disabilities.
• Parties to establish codes of conduct for their members in relation to their behaviour on social media.
• Further restricting which party names, abbreviations and logos can be registered, as is the case at the Commonwealth level.

“The Victorian Electoral Matters Committee has conducted a thorough and detailed investigation that gives the Victorian public a lot to consider,” said Bill Browne, Director of the Australia Institute’s Democracy & Accountability Program.

“With the multi-party Committee repeating its recommendation for truth in political advertising, there is no excuse for further delays from the Victorian Government.”

Truth in political advertising

“In Victoria, it is perfectly legal to lie in a political ad, and it shouldn’t be,” said Bill Browne.

Historian Dr Prudence Flowers joins Dr Emma Shortis to discuss the politics of reproductive rights in American politics, Project 2025 and the wave of support for Kamala Harris since Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the race.

This discussion was recorded on Friday 12 and Thursday 25 July 2024 and things may have changed since recording.

1800RESPECT is the national domestic, family and sexual violence counselling, information and support service. Call 1800 737 732, text 0458 737 732, chat online or video call via their website.

Guest: Prudence Flowers, Senior Lecturer in US History, Flinders University // @FlowersPGF

Host: Emma Shortis, Senior Research for International & Security Affairs, the Australia Institute // @EmmaShortis

Show notes:

‘‘Kamala IS brat’: how the power of pop music has influenced 60 years of US elections’ by Prudence Flowers, The Conversation (July 2024)

On this episode of Dollars & Sense, Greg Jericho discusses the economic impact of a second Trump presidency for Australia and the region – and why four more years of Trump could be a disaster for the climate.

Greg Jericho is Chief Economist at the Australia Institute and the Centre for Future Work and popular columnist of Grogonomics with Guardian Australia. Each week on Dollars & Sense, Greg dives into the latest economic figures to explain what they can tell us about what’s happening in the economy, how it will impact you and where things are headed.

Host: Greg Jericho, Chief Economist, the Australia Institute // @GrogsGamut

Host: Elinor Johnston-Leek, Senior Content Producer, the Australia Institute // @ElinorJ_L

Theme music: Blue Dot Sessions

We’d love to hear your feedback on this series, so send in your questions, comments or suggestions for future episodes to podcasts@australiainstitute.org.au.

1. Fossil fuel exports.
   Minister Bowen did not address, and no one asked about, the fact that Australia is the world’s third largest fossil fuel exporter. With over 100 new fossil fuel projects in the development pipeline, as well as four new coal mines and at least 116 new gas wells approved since 2022, the Australian Government shows no intention of changing this status. Just this week, the government opened areas of Commonwealth waters off the coasts of South Australia, Victoria and Tasmania for offshore gas exploration.
2. Emissions outside of electricity.

The deepfake, which is marked as “AI-generated content”, depicts Premier Miles dancing, to make fun of Miles for posting a video of himself making a sandwich.

Effective truth in political advertising laws already exist; they have operated in South Australia since the 1980s, were legislated in the ACT in 2020, and been proposed in other jurisdictions – including by Queensland Labor rank-and-file.

“Even when political ads are marked as AI-generated, political parties and candidates should be wary about running them. No one benefits from a race to the bottom where fake content is used to ridicule political rivals,” said Bill Browne, Director of the Australia Institute’s Democracy & Accountability Program.

“Queensland saw the use of one of the first political deepfakes in Australia, at the 2020 state election. It looks like the trend is continuing.

“While this deepfake was marked as AI-generated, it shows how easy it has become to create fake content – and there is no guarantee that other fake content in the Queensland election will be clearly identified. In Queensland, it is perfectly legal to lie in a political ad, and it shouldn’t be.

“Elections elsewhere around the world have seen deepfake images and videos used with the deliberate intent to deceive.

“Truth in political advertising laws in Queensland, along the lines of those already in place in South Australia and the ACT, would help ensure that voters are not misled.”

The United Nations and the IEA have been clear that there can be no new coal, oil or gas projects if we are to avoid dangerous climate change. There is no ‘clean energy transition’ while governments keep approving highly polluting new fossil fuel projects

Key Points:

• A series of new offshore gas and sea dumping exploration permits have been granted by the Federal Minister for Resources, The Hon Madeleine King, today.
• The projects are off the coast of Western Australia and Victoria.
• Sea dumping (described by the gas industry as CCS) increases emission by enabling new fossil fuel projects. Just three Australian coal fired power stations emit more carbon pollution than the entire world’s current CCS capacity.

“This government was elected to take action on climate change and reduce emissions, but they are opening new fossil fuel projects instead,” said Mark Ogge, Principal Advisor at The Australia Institute.

“Expanding Australia’s gas production in the middle of a climate emergency is not just short-sighted: it treats our Pacific Island neighbours and future generations with contempt.

Dr Emma Shortis and Ebony Bennett, host of the Australia Institute’s Follow the Money podcast, reflect on Joe Biden’s legacy, his endorsement of Kamala Harris and what it could mean for the election campaign.

This discussion was recorded on Monday 22 July 2024 and things may have changed since recording.

Host: Emma Shortis, Senior Research for International & Security Affairs, the Australia Institute // @EmmaShortis

Host: Ebony Bennett, Deputy Director, the Australia Institute // @ebony_bennett

Theme music: Blue Dot Sessions

You can see Professor Joseph E Stiglitz speak live in several cities across Australia as part of the Australia Institute’s 30th anniversary celebrations. Tickets are available online.

To do so, Australia will need to abandon its conciliatory deference to the U.S.A and instead begin advocating strongly in our own national interest.

Australia has power and agency in the US-Australia relationship. With a second Trump Presidency remaining a real possibility, Australia also has a significant stake in the survival of US democracy and global leadership.

“Biden had nowhere to go, and that’s where he went,” said Dr Emma Shortis, Senior Researcher for the Australia Institute’s International & Security Affairs Program.

“Biden has endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris, which was the only logical choice. Harris is now an experienced Vice President, accustomed to the national stage and particularly strong on the issue of reproductive rights.

“While American politics has been preoccupied with recent events, this issue is one that motivates voters to turn out. It did in the 2022 mid-terms, and it likely will do again.

“There is a long way to go until November, but Trump currently remains ahead in the polls.

“What Australia does matters on the world stage, and we can no longer blindly rely on the United States to defend us.

“Instead of considering how Australia can accommodate America under Trump, we can instead focus on standing up for what matters to us and push hard for our interests and values. It’s time that we learned to work with America, not just for it.”

A loophole in Australia’s tax law effectively subsidises large utes such as Ram and Chevrolet pick-up trucks by avoiding the Luxury Car Tax (LCT) that other imported vehicles pay, regardless of if the vehicles are used for work, recreation or just commuting.

The $250 million cost of this subsidy is more than ten times the Federal Government’s Active Transport Fund for the construction and upgrade of cycle paths every year.

Key Findings:

• Luxury car tax is paid on the sale or importation of most cars valued above $81,000.
• However, any vehicle that can carry twice the weight in payload that it can carry in people, is exempt regardless of what it is used for.
• Non-luxury utes, used by most tradies, sit below this threshold and would be unaffected by the removal of the luxury ute loophole.

“The Australian public is subsidising big, dumb utes by hundreds of millions of dollars each year,” said Rod Campbell, Research Director at the Australia Institute.

“These vehicles are damaging roads, reducing safety and increasing emissions, yet they are given a massive tax break.

“Removing the luxury car tax exemption will not affect most ute drivers, particularly tradies.

“Instead it targets those buying large luxury vehicles, worth sometimes hundreds of thousands of dollars, for personal use.

Even though the transport sector is the third largest source of Australian emissions and accounted for 21% of national emissions in 2023, the Australian Government continues to incentivise the sale of big utility vehicles (utes) relative to other car options. Over the last twenty years, the number of utes on our roads has grown much faster than the number of passenger vehicles.

While utes are necessary to a range of occupations, their proliferation, particularly of larger heavier models, damages the environment, damages roads, and incurs a range of other costs on society. A key example of this incentivisation is an exemption from Luxury Car Tax (LCT), which applies to essentially all utes.

Large vehicles impose considerable costs on society, from their higher carbon emissions and rates of road damage to serious safety concerns. The Australian Government should ensure that these costs are accounted for by properly taxing and regulating these vehicles, starting with removing the LCT exemption for utes. These policies would curb the growth in expensive and damaging vehicles in Australia and limit the use of utes to legitimate commercial purposes rather than personal luxuries.

The post Luxury Car Tax and the Ute Loophole appeared first on The Australia Institute.

The Wrap with Ebony Bennett

Watching the bin fire that is the American presidential race, Australian democracy is looking pretty good.

There are without doubt some key things to be grateful for.

Our system of compulsory preferential voting, for example, which ensures no vote is wasted – unlike in the United States and the United Kingdom.

The Australia Electoral Commission, which ensures our elections are transparent and fair; free of the blatant gerrymandering we see in the States.

Even the secret ballot, an essential component of democracy worldwide, is an Australian invention.

But we cannot take our democracy for granted.

We need truth in political advertising laws that make it illegal to lie in political ads so public trust in our system doesn’t erode irreparably.

We need political finance reform exposes the undue influence of fossil fuel companies and others – and that doesn’t rig the system against independents and minor parties.

We also need to have a serious conversation about inequality, which undermines faith in democracy.

The government is currently legislating to reduce the tax concessions available on superannuation balances of more than $3m. While this measure would affect only around 80,000 people out of the 17m holders of superannuation conservatives and lobbyists of the wealthiest are arguing this will hurt those who have saved for their own retirement.

In reality, the use of superannuation tax concessions has been completely abused. The purpose of superannuation is to reduce the burden on the pension system, but now we see in articles such as in the Financial Review today, people arguing that they are using superannuation to build up their inheritance for their children and grandchildren and that these measures to reduce tax concessions on super balances of over $3m are “stealing my children’s inheritance”.

Superannuation tax concessions for the wealthiest only serve to entrench inequality in our society, but worse, because the concessions allow the wealthy to reduce the tax they pay on their income before retirement, it means Australian taxpayers are in effect funding the retirement of the very wealthiest in the country.

The cost of these taxation concessions puts lie to the line that they are “self-funded” retirees.

On this episode of Dollars & Sense, Greg Jericho discusses the latest International Monetary Fund Update on the global economy, the possible impact of American tariff hikes on global efforts to tackle inflation, and the real story behind Australia’s seemingly rosy unemployment data.

Greg Jericho is Chief Economist at the Australia Institute and the Centre for Future Work and popular columnist of Grogonomics with Guardian Australia. Each week on Dollars & Sense, Greg dives into the latest economic figures to explain what they can tell us about what’s happening in the economy, how it will impact you and where things are headed.

Host: Greg Jericho, Chief Economist, the Australia Institute // @GrogsGamut

Host: Elinor Johnston-Leek, Senior Content Producer, the Australia Institute // @ElinorJ_L

Theme music: Blue Dot Sessions

It’s said that ‘disunity is death’ in Australian politics, but – as several major party politicians found out in the 2022 election – falling in behind an unpopular policy agenda can be pretty dangerous for your career as well. On this episode of Follow the Money, Australia Institute Executive Director Richard Denniss joins Ebony Bennett to discuss the big changes taking place in Australian politics and how they might influence the next election.

This discussion was recorded on Tuesday 16 July 2024 and things may have changed since recording.

Guest: Richard Denniss, Executive Director, the Australia Institute // @RDNS_TAI

Host: Ebony Bennett, Deputy Director, the Australia Institute // @ebony_bennett

Show notes:

Power sharing in Australian parliament by Bill Browne and Richard Denniss (July 2024)

Theme music: Pulse and Thrum; additional music by Blue Dot Sessions

You can see Professor Joseph E Stiglitz speak live in several cities across Australia as part of the Australia Institute’s 30th anniversary celebrations. Tickets are available via our website.

The United Nations Secretary-General, António Guterres, has called for a global fossil fuel advertising ban. This is a policy idea that has been previously proposed by advocates in Australia, and that was quickly backed by the Greens and nine Independent MPs after the UNSG’s endorsement.

Fossil Ad Ban has been leading the charge in Australia to “stop fossil fuel companies and high greenhouse gas polluters using marketing and sponsorships to delay the inevitable and urgently required social transition to clean energy.”

On this episode of After America, Dr Emma Shortis speaks to Professor the Hon Bob Carr about the attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump and what it could mean for the campaign, the emergence of JD Vance as Trump’s running mate, and the trajectory of American foreign policy.

This discussion was recorded on Tuesday 16 July 2024 and things may have changed since recording.

Guest: Professor the Hon Bob Carr, former Australian Foreign Minister and former Premier of New South Wales // @bobjcarr

Host: Dr Emma Shortis, Senior Research for International & Security Affairs, the Australia Institute // @EmmaShortis

Theme music: Blue Dot Sessions

You can see Professor Joseph E Stiglitz speak live in several cities across Australia as part of the Australia Institute’s 30th anniversary celebrations. Tickets are available via our website.

The Australian Government claims that green hydrogen is part of its vision for becoming a renewable energy ‘superpower’, but budget documents show this is not the case. Current industrial hydrogen use in Australia is 500,000 tonnes per year. The Commonwealth Government is budgeting for green hydrogen production of around 500,000 tonnes per year into the 2040s. Given the first users of green hydrogen will be existing industrial users of fossil hydrogen, this leaves no hydrogen for export from Australia.

This briefing note formed part of The Australia Institute’s submission to consultation on the Commonwealth Government’s Hydrogen Production Tax Incentive.

The post Hope and hydrogen – Australia’s hydrogen export charade appeared first on The Australia Institute.

How did Australia get itself into such a mess with housing? What impact is the crisis having on renters? And why does everyone seem to think investing in the property market is a good idea except the government? On this episode of Dollars & Sense, Australia Institute Senior Economist Matt Grudnoff talks about what caused Australia’s housing crisis and what government can do to fix it.

Host: Matt Grudnoff, Senior Economist, the Australia Institute // @MattGrudnoff

Host: Elinor Johnston-Leek, Senior Content Producer, the Australia Institute // @ElinorJ_L

Theme music: Blue Dot Sessions

We’d love to hear your feedback on this series, so send in your questions, comments or suggestions for future episodes to podcasts@australiainstitute.org.au.

Former senator and transparency advocate Rex Patrick has lost his appeal to the Full Federal Court challenging the Australian Information Commissioner’s multi-year delays in handling FOI reviews.  Some of Patrick’s outstanding FOI reviews have been awaiting decision for almost four years.

In a longstanding legal battle, Patrick sought to draw a line in the sand on lengthy FOI delays plaguing the dysfunctional regime and inhibiting timely public access to government information. He argued that the FOI Act requires information to be made accessible in a prompt or timely manner, and that the delays he experienced in his FOI reviews were objectively unreasonable.

Late yesterday, the Court recognised that the delay in processing Patrick’s FOI application was “very lengthy” and “unfortunate”. But it ultimately determined that resourcing is relevant in whether a delay is unreasonable. This effectively gives governments a license to underfund the Office of the Australian Information Commissioner (OAIC) and frustrate the FOI system without consequences.

The Court also noted that there was no ‘one size fits all’ time limit for Information Commissioner review decisions. This leaves little recourse for people waiting multiple years for FOI reviews to be finalised, often rendering information sought irrelevant and limiting scrutiny of government decision-making.

After escaping mainland China in the bottom of a fishing boat at the age of 12, Jimmy Lai went on to become one of the most influential people in Hong Kong. But now the founder of Hong Kong’s largest pro-democracy newspaper is facing the possibility of life in prison under China’s repressive national security law. On this episode of Follow the Money, Sebastien Lai and Jennifer Robinson, legal counsel to Julian Assange, join Ebony Bennett to discuss the fight to free Mr Lai and the global threats to freedom of the press.

This discussion was recorded on Tuesday 2 July 2024 and things may have changed since recording.

Guest: Sebastien Lai, son of Jimmy Lai // @SupportJimmyLai

Guest: Jennifer Robinson, legal counsel to Jimmy Lai and Julian Assange // @suigenerisjen

Host: Ebony Bennett, Deputy Director, the Australia Institute // @ebony_bennett

Theme music: Pulse and Thrum; additional music by Blue Dot Sessions

When those changes were passed with almost no scrutiny or debate, the Australia Institute’s National Integrity Committee of retired judges said that the changes raised a real concern that integrity had been set back considerably in South Australia.

“The South Australian Government cannot carry on with a business-as-usual approach when integrity has been so clearly compromised in the state,” said Bill Browne, Director of the Australia Institute’s Democracy & Accountability Program.

“Commissioner Vanstone has been unequivocal in her defence of the role of the anti-corruption commission in South Australia.

“That these complex reforms were rushed through the Parliament with almost no scrutiny or debate raised serious concerns for transparency in South Australia. Now, with the resignation of the Commissioner, South Australia has an opportunity to revisit these drastic changes and investigate the troubling impacts with the scrutiny they deserve.”

The post SA ICAC: Commissioner Resignation Must Trigger Rethink on Integrity Backslide appeared first on The Australia Institute.

Seen in this context, the growth in minor party and independent representation is just the latest example of power sharing.

The likelihood of shared power in the Commonwealth parliament has increased as the major party vote has declined significantly since the end of World War 2, and the 2022 election marked the lowest combined vote for the two largest parties since the Great Depression. It also yielded the largest House of Representatives crossbench ever.

Despite occasional fearmongering about ‘hung’ parliaments, minority government and “coalitions of chaos”, the reality is that power sharing governments are common in Australia. Governments often need to secure the support of other parliamentarians, whether through the formal, albeit secret, coalition agreements between the Liberal and National parties or various arrangements with independents and minor party MPs.

Independents and minor parties upend the old certainties of political life. Predictive tools like the Mackerras pendulum do not capture contests outside of the two major parties, and
what is a “safe” or “marginal” seat seems to be inverted for independents and crossbenchers.

This necessitates a more mature and nuanced analysis of both electoral outcomes and the contribution of crossbenchers and their roles, just as the electoral success of the Labor Party
in the 1890s and 1900s forced the political class to reckon with the political labour movement. Power sharing has always been a feature of parliamentary democracy, but the details are always changing.

On this episode of After America, Dr Emma Shortis speaks to Allan Behm, Director of the Australia Institute’s International & Security Affairs program, about the US Supreme Court and his new book, The Odd Couple: the Australia-America relationship.

This discussion was recorded on Friday 5 July 2024 and things may have changed since recording.

Guest: Allan Behm, Director, International & Security Affairs program, the Australia Institute // @Mirandaprorsus

Host: Emma Shortis, Senior Research for International & Security Affairs, the Australia Institute // @EmmaShortis

Show notes:

The Odd Couple: the Australia-America relationship by Allan Behm (2024)

No Enemies No Friends: Restoring Australia’s Global Relevance by Allan Behm (2022)

No, Minister: So You Want To Be A Chief Of Staff? by Allan Behm (2015)

Theme music: Blue Dot Sessions

Too often other Australian governments kowtow to the gas and coal industry. But, heading into a tough state election, Queensland Premier Steven Miles is bucking the trend.

The Queensland Government’s decision to boost coal royalties and stand up to the inevitable industry scare campaign has already paid off big time for Queenslanders.

In 2022, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent commodity prices soaring and the Queensland Labor government changed its royalty scheme so a greater portion of the windfall was paid to the community. The Australia Institute estimates that the revised policy raised $4.3 billion in revenue in 2022-23.

This money, that would otherwise have gone to multinational shareholders, is mainly being spent on better public services. All Queenslanders will receive a $1,000 rebate on their power bills (on top of the $300 rebate the Commonwealth is giving) and, for the next six months, everyone in South East Queensland will enjoy a reduction of public transport fares to just 50 cents.

It has also pledged to pour $1 billion over five years into a health strategy for women and girls aimed at achieving gender equality. This will include Australia’s first publicly funded endometriosis and pelvic pain clinic, expanded access to IVF, and free period products in all state schools.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers said “any growth is welcome” at his recent press conference on Australia’s March quarter economic performance.

But the Treasurer was surely hoping to welcome a little more than the 0.1 per cent gross domestic product (GDP) growth we got.

“It’s really hard to sugar coat this,” said Australia Institute Chief Economist Greg Jericho.

“It’s a rounding error away from nothing.”

The story gets worse when you exclude population growth, with GDP per capita falling 0.4 per cent in the March quarter.

“That was the fifth quarter in a row that our economy has contracted on a per capita basis,” Jericho said.

“The last time that happened? Ah, it’s never happened before…”

Treasurer Chalmers described the weak growth as “the inevitable consequence of these rate rises which are in the system.”

Apparently the RBA thinks there is too much demand in the economy. Have they seen the latest GDP figures????

My column. https://t.co/qKdhTKzKXr

— Greg Jericho (@GrogsGamut) June 5, 2024

The Wrap with Ebony Bennett

Australia is a big country.

We’re the 12th largest economy in the world. We’re the third largest exporter of fossil fuels. We’re a country that’s also a continent.

But too often, we act small.

Some might argue that there’s not a great deal Australia can do about issues beyond our borders. But Australia matters.

Here at the Australia Institute, we have a 30-year track record of bringing big ideas and big thinkers into Australia’s public policy debate to help Australia think big.

That’s why we’re delighted to be hosting Nobel Prize-winning economist Professor Joseph Stiglitz for his ‘Economics and the Good Society’ national speaking tour, as part of our 30th anniversary celebrations.

It’s also why I was so proud this week to launch The Odd Couple: the Australia-America relationship, a new book by our International & Security Affairs Director, Allan Behm.

America needs a friend, not a flunkey, and Australia may become its best ally.

Join International & Security Affairs Director Allan Behm on a tour for his book ‘The Odd Couple: The Australia-America Relationship’

Coming to cities across Australia!#auspol @Mirandaprorsus pic.twitter.com/Q9i9GTLkKy

Would the divestiture powers proposed by the Federal Opposition and supported by the Greens help keep inflation down? And what impact will the new and improved stage three tax cuts have in the economy? On this episode of Dollars & Sense, Australia Institute Senior Economist Matt Grudnoff talks about supermarket divestiture and the changes brought in with the new financial year.

Host: Matt Grudnoff, Senior Economist, the Australia Institute // @MattGrudnoff

Host: Elinor Johnston-Leek, Senior Content Producer, the Australia Institute // @ElinorJ_L

Theme music: Blue Dot Sessions

We’d love to hear your feedback on this series, so send in your questions, comments or suggestions for future episodes to podcasts@australiainstitute.org.au.

The post Supermarxist? Dutton and the duopoly appeared first on The Australia Institute.

Unsurprisingly, the RBA’s call to keep rates unchanged was met by some in the media and conservative commentariat as a failure to be tough. Some would prefer the RBA to be less concerned about the risk of a recession or rising unemployment than getting inflation from 3.6% to below 3%.

Such views are much easier to make when your own job is safe and your income is very comfortable.

It is worth remembering that in the past two years the share of household income spent on mortgage repayments has risen by the amount it did in five years during the mining boom, and by more than occurred in the run-up to the 1990s recession:

Oil and gas extraction in South Australia employs just 833 people, 0.1% of SA jobs. Petroleum royalties make up 0.4% of the state budget. On oil and gas production worth $1.7 billion in 2021-22, the industry paid at most $99 million in federal tax, of which Santos paid zero.

Despite this, the industry has significant influence in the state.

The post The oil and gas industry in South Australia appeared first on The Australia Institute.

Will the government’s political finance reforms keep vested interests out of politics or ensure the major parties dominate Australia’s political landscape? Could South Australia’s proposed political donations ban become a model for the rest of the country? And what home-grown innovations have insulated Australia from some of the democratic backsliding seen in the United States? On this episode of Follow the Money, the Australia Institute’s Democracy & Accountability Director Bill Browne joins Ebony Bennett to discuss political finance reform.

This discussion was recorded on Tuesday 2 July 2024 and things may have changed since recording.

Guest: Bill Browne, Director, Democracy & Accountability program, the Australia Institute // @Browne90

Host: Ebony Bennett, Deputy Director, the Australia Institute // @ebony_bennett

Show notes:

Principles for fair political finance reform by Bill Browne, The Australia Institute (August 2023)

The Coalition’s proposed divestiture powers to break up major hardware and grocery retailers could help keep inflation down and assist with cost-of-living pressures.

“The introduction of divestiture laws is a sensible tool to stop large companies like Woolworths and Coles misusing their market power. It would be good for prices at the checkout and help keep inflation down,” said Matt Grudnoff, Senior Economist at the Australia Institute.

“Research from the Australia Institute’s Centre for Future Work, released at the beginning of 2023, showed that corporate profits, not wages, were the major driver of the burst of inflation in Australia that followed the Covid lockdowns.

“The Australian economy has become less competitive over the last few decades and these laws would go some way to addressing that structural imbalance.

“Our current competition laws have few ways of making an already uncompetitive industry more competitive.

“Divestiture powers will enable the government to break up large businesses abusing their market power and force them to compete, leading to lower prices and better service for consumers.

“In other economies, including the UK and the US, broad ranging divestiture powers are already in place. If adopted in Australia, these new powers would just bring us into line with other OECD countries.”

What does the release of Julian Assange reveal about the Australia-US relationship? And is Trump’s authoritarian behaviour really an outlier in American political history?

On the first episode of After America, Dr Emma Shortis reflects on the first presidential debate performance and the release of Julian Assange, before former BBC United States correspondent Nick Bryant joins the show to discuss the country’s long history of authoritarianism.

This discussion was recorded on Tuesday 25 June and Monday 1 July 2024 and things may have changed since recording.

australiainstitute.org.au // @theausinstitute

Guest: Nick Bryant, former BBC correspondent and author of The Forever War: America’s Unending Conflict with Itself // @NickBryantNY

Host: Emma Shortis, Senior Research for International & Security Affairs, the Australia Institute // @EmmaShortis

Show notes:

The Forever War: America’s Unending Conflict with Itself by Nick Bryant (June 2024)

The changes coming into effect from today – under the federal government’s Closing Loopholes Act – guarantee the rights of volunteer union delegates to represent workers and paid training leave.

The Centre for Future Work’s Carmichael Centre analysis found employees wanted their union to cooperate with employers and vice versa, and that giving workplace delegates a greater voice made this more likely.

“Those who claim that guaranteeing the rights of union delegates must lead to greater conflict are dead wrong,” said Professor David Peetz, research fellow and author of Employee voice and new rights for workplace union delegates.

“Workers expect their union and employer to cooperate effectively to solve problems, and reach agreements over pay and conditions, in both parties’ mutual interests.

“Well trained delegates are best-placed to represent workers. They don’t acquiesce but they do cooperate. After all, they know it’s in workers’ interests for workplace productivity to rise.”

The paper found this could help boost productivity, which on average was at least as high in unionised as in non-union workplaces. Strong representation and consultation made workers less resistant to productivity-boosting technology including artificial intelligence.

In the past, many volunteer union delegates have been obstructed from properly doing their job to allow employees’ voices to be heard in the workplace. Now, their rights will be guaranteed.

Some employers have actively placed barriers in the way of volunteer union delegates and paid officials. One study in the early 2000s found that 23% of delegates found management
hostile, while 22% of delegates reported that management opposition to their role as a delegate had become more intense over the previous two years. Examples from various case studies, including court and industrial cases, illustrate some of the ways in which that minority of employers from workplaces with delegates expressed their hostility towards unionism and their opposition to delegates, including by placing barriers in the way of workplace union activists and delegates.

The new regime of workplace delegates’ rights is very likely, overall, to increase the voice of employees, and thereby have positive consequences, over the long run, for pay and conditions, union membership, workplace cooperation, grievance resolution and productivity. However, the effects of new rights for paid union training leave depend very much on union responses, in particular on their subsequent reliance on classroom versus informal training and the ‘follow up’ of classroom education.

The post Employee voice and new rights for workplace union delegates appeared first on The Australia Institute.