The Australia Institute Feed Items

Read the full analysis here.

Labor’s landslide federal election victory in May, both in seats and two-party preferred terms, was underpinned by a greater number of preferences than ever from voters who didn’t put it first on the ballot paper.

Key findings:

• The Labor Party has never received so many preferences from voters who didn’t put it first.
• The growing number of voters giving their first preference to a minor party or independent candidate is hurting the Coalition far more than Labor.
  • In 2013, 21% of voters gave their primary vote to a minor party or independent candidate. Of that, more preferred Labor (62%) to the Coalition (38%). Yet the Coalition was able to form government.
  • In 2025, 34% of voters gave their primary vote to a minor party or independent candidate. Despite an almost identical split of preferences to 2013 (62% Labor/38% Coalition), Labor won in a landslide.
• In 2025, the Liberal–National Coalition had a historically low vote, whether you measure it in first-preference or 2PP terms.

“One of the great Australian innovations is the full preferential voting system, which guarantees that every vote matters and you cannot waste your vote,” said Bill Browne, Democracy & Accountability Director at the Australia Institute.

At the 2025 federal election, the Albanese Labor Government won over 55% of the two-party preferred vote. The two-party preferred vote, called 2PP, measures whether Australians preferred their Labor candidate or their Liberal–National Coalition candidate. 55% of the 2PP is the party’s best result since 1943.

This high 2PP vote disguises a relatively low first-preference vote of 35% for Labor. That is, only about one in three voters put “1” next to their Labor candidate.

The Labor Party has never received so many preferences. 20% of Australians preferred Labor to the Coalition but did not put Labor first. That 20% plus the 35% who gave Labor their first preference results in 55% 2PP for Labor. The result is a Labor landslide, despite a relatively low first-preference vote.

The Liberal–National Coalition also depended on preferences to an unusually large degree. Even so, it had a historically low vote, whether you measure it in first-preference or 2PP terms.

The post Major parties have never relied more on preferences appeared first on The Australia Institute.

The ACCC alleges that Australian Gas Networks misled consumers by suggesting customers could be using “renewable gas” within a generation.

Renewable gas refers to alternatives, such as hydrogen or biomethane, to the natural gas that is currently piped into millions of Australian homes.

“We allege that Australian Gas Networks engaged in greenwashing in its ‘Love Gas’ ad campaign,” said ACCC Chair Gina Cass-Gottlieb.

“It is not currently possible to distribute renewable gas at scale.

“We say these ads were intended to encourage consumers to connect to, or remain connected to, Australian Gas Networks’ distribution network and to purchase gas appliances for their homes, based on the misleading impression they would receive ‘renewable gas’ within a generation.”

According to the CSIRO, Australia is the 14th biggest emitter of greenhouse gases in the world. The processing and burning of natural gas is a major contributor to those emissions. Australian gas also contributes to the emissions of many other countries, with huge quantities shipped overseas.

Australia Institute research shows the proposed expansion of the North West Shelf gas export project in Western Australia would lead to 182 million tonnes of emissions being released into the atmosphere, which is greater than the emissions of all of Australia’s coal power stations and greater than the emissions of 153 individual countries.

On this episode of Dollars & Sense, Greg and Elinor discuss why being a CEO of a top company might be the sweetest gig in the country and the perverse debate over the government’s proposed superannuation tax changes.

This discussion was recorded on Thursday 26 June 2025 and things may have changed since recording.

Our independence is our strength – and only you can make that possible. By donating to the Australia Institute’s End of Financial Year appeal today, you’ll help fund the research changing Australia for the better.

Host: Greg Jericho, Chief Economist, the Australia Institute and Centre for Future Work // @grogsgamut

Host: Elinor Johnston-Leek, Senior Content Producer, the Australia Institute // @elinorjohnstonleek

Show notes:

Super tax debate highlights everything wrong with Australia’s media and economic system by Greg Jericho, Guardian Australia (June 2025)

Read the full analysis here.

It is a consequence of an election in which more crossbench candidates than ever either won or came second in a House of Representatives seat.

Key findings:

• Second place to Prime Minister Anthony Albanese in Grayndler was a Green; to Opposition Leader Sussan Ley in Farrer was an independent; and to Nationals Leader David Littleproud in Maranoa was One Nation.
• Crossbench candidates set a record for the most first and second-place finishes in the 2025 federal election: 35, up from 27 in 2022 and just 15 in 2019.

“It is the first time in Australian history that every party leader had to defeat an independent or minor party runner-up to win their seat,” said Bill Browne, Democracy & Accountability Director at The Australia Institute.

“Over the past four decades, Australians have increasingly voted for minor parties and independents at the expense of the major parties.

“The minor party and independent vote exceeded the Liberal/National vote for the first time at this election.

“Australians are entitled to fair and competitive elections, but earlier this year Labor and Liberal voted together to pass laws that will give tens of millions of dollars to the major parties and treat independents and new entrants unfairly.

On this episode of Follow the Money, Dr Emma Shortis and Allan Behm join Ebony Bennett to discuss the American bombing of Iran, the Albanese Government’s choice to back the Trump Administration’s decision, and why upholding and strengthening a rules-based global order is more than just “nostalgia”.

You can sign our petition calling on the Australian Government to launch a parliamentary inquiry into AUKUS.

Our independence is our strength – and only you can make that possible. By donating to the Australia Institute’s End of Financial Year appeal today, you’ll help fund the research changing Australia for the better.

Guest: Emma Shortis, Director of International & Security Affairs, the Australia Institute // @emmashortis

Guest: Allan Behm, Senior Advisor in International & Security Affairs, the Australia Institute

Host: Ebony Bennett, Deputy Director, the Australia Institute // @ebonybennett

Show notes:

Tomorrow, the shortlist will be announced for the biggest prize in Australian literature, the $60,000 Miles Franklin Award.

The winner is likely to hand over at least a quarter of their winnings to the tax office.

Ironically, if someone backs the winner with a bookmaker, even if they won $60,000 on the bet, their winnings would be tax-free.

Similarly, if they won a raffle or pokies jackpot, the tax office would not take a cent.

The new analysis argues there would be enormous artistic and cultural benefit if the government made the prizes awarded to Australian writers, painters, playwrights and artists from other disciplines tax free.

“Taxing art prizes makes no sense,” said Alice Grundy, Research Manager at The Australia Institute and Managing Editor of Australia Institute Press.

“It raises hardly any revenue, and it stifles the creativity of some of the nation’s greatest artistic talents.

“If you win the lottery, Who Wants to be a Millionaire or The Block, you don’t pay tax on your prize money. Win the Stella Prize for writing by Australian women, and you pay tax. Win the Archibald prize for painting, pay tax.

“The median income for Australian authors is $32,760, which is below the poverty line.

Past winners of the award include legendary writers such as Tim Winton, Thomas Keneally, Alexis Wright, Thea Astley and Peter Carey.

And because it’s Australian culture, you can place a bet with a bookmaker on which title on the shortlist will win the award.

The winner of the Miles Franklin can expect prize money of $60,000.

Many will then pay around $20,000 of that back in income tax.

But if you picked the winner of the Miles Franklin with the bookies, your winnings are tax-free.

Isn’t that weird? Winning authors pay tax. Mug punters, no tax.

It gets weirder. If you win the lottery, Who wants to be a Millionaire or The Block, you don’t pay tax on your prize money.

Win the Stella Prize for writing by Australian women – pay tax.

Win the Archibald prize for painting – pay tax. How about the Prime Minister’s Literary Awards? Well in that case, “All prizes are tax-free” is in bold on the website.

This shows that whether prizes are taxed is completely arbitrary. It is a decision for Australian governments to make. And should the Australian government choose to axe the taxes on arts prizes, they would be making a sound investment in Australian culture.

The loss of revenue would be unnoticed by a government that just gave away $215 billion dollars’ worth of natural gas for free.

It would barely register given the $10 billion in subsidies the government handed over in the form of the fuel tax credit to mining companies.

On this episode of What’s the Big Idea?, former senator Bob Brown joins Paul Barclay to discuss the ‘price of extinction’, how monetising the environment won’t save it, the corporate capture of democracy and the failure of the major parties to truly protect the environment.

This discussion was recorded on 5 February 2025 and things may have changed since the recording.

Order What’s the Big Idea? 32 Big Ideas for a Better Australia now via the Australia Institute website.

Guest: Bob Brown, Co-Founder, Bob Brown Foundation // @BobBrownFndn

Host: Paul Barclay, Walkley Award winning journalist and broadcaster // @PaulBarclay

Show notes:

Shorting the Environment by Polly Hemming, Rod Campbell and Richard Denniss, the Australia Institute (September 2022)

Carbon credits no excuse for NSW Government to stall on saving koalas, the Australia Institute (April 2024)

The Wrap with Dr Emma Shortis

As Taylor Swift said, if you play stupid games, you win stupid prizes.

Last week the Trump administration sent Australia’s national security establishment into a spin when it announced that it was reviewing the Aukus submarine pact to ensure that it fits Trump’s “America First” agenda.

But even before that announcement, Aukus was on shaky ground. The deal was a political stunt foisted on the Australian people with no real plan and no democratic accountability at all.

In fact, Trump’s review means that Australia – the country with the most at stake in this deal – is the only partner not to have subjected it to real scrutiny.

That’s why we’ve launched a petition calling on the Australian government to hold a parliamentary inquiry into the Aukus deal. It’s truly wild that in a democracy, a change in our security policy this big and this expensive hadn’t already been properly and publicly examined.

Thank you to the 9000 of you who have already signed. If you haven’t, please add your name:

On this episode of After America, Dr Emma Shortis and Angus Blackman discuss Trump’s decision to bomb three Iranian nuclear sites, the comparisons with America’s 2003 invasion of Iraq, and what this decision could mean for Australia.

This discussion was recorded on Monday 23 June 2025 and things may have changed since recording.

You can sign our petition calling on the Australian Government to launch a parliamentary inquiry into AUKUS.

Join Dr Emma Shortis and Dr Richard Denniss in conversation about After America: Australia and the new world order at the University of Melbourne at 6pm AEST, Wednesday 16 July.

Our independence is our strength – and only you can make that possible. By donating to the Australia Institute’s End of Financial Year appeal today, you’ll help fund the research changing Australia for the better.

Host: Emma Shortis, Director, International & Security Affairs, the Australia Institute // @emmashortis

Host: Angus Blackman, Producer, the Australia Institute // @AngusRB

So, it’s a bit of mystery why the Liberal Party, in dire need of wooing back women voters in particular, has decided to oppose the changes. It suggests the Liberal Party won’t have much to meaningfully contribute to the serious tax reform debate Treasurer Jim Chalmers foreshadowed in his National Press Club speech.

Australia Institute research shows that twice as many Australians support (52 per cent) the government’s super tax concessions changes as oppose them (26 per cent), with around a quarter still undecided. The polling also found that about one in five of those surveyed thought it would impact their retirement plans when in reality, only one in 200 will be affected.

Perhaps people overestimate how much this will impact them because most people don’t think about their super at all until they get close to retirement, but let’s be clear, collecting more revenue from mostly wealthy men is good for both women and young people.

Only the very richest Australians will be affected by Labor’s plans to reduce the generosity of the superannuation tax concessions for people with earnings over $3 million.

Chalmers’ proposed changes will halve the super tax concession, meaning those will super balances over $3 million will go from paying 15 per cent tax to paying 30 per cent tax. It still represents an enormous tax concession for wealthy people, it’s just slightly less generous.

The role of Monash University in greenwashing the activities of Woodside and other fossil fuel companies has been revealed by journalist Royce Kurmelovs in climate-focused publication Drilled and Crikey.

Kurmelovs’ report reinforces Australia Institute research highlighting the crisis of integrity in the governance of Australia’s universities.

Upcoming Australia Institute research will further outline Monash and other universities’ links to the fossil fuel industry.

“It’s past time for Australia’s universities to stop greenwashing companies like Woodside,” said Rod Campbell, Research Director at The Australia Institute.

“Monash not only names buildings and hosts conferences for Woodside, it has multiple Woodside-funded scholarships and partners with Woodside in research grants.

“While scholarships provide financial support to individual students, this funding pales in comparison to the profits of Woodside.

“The $99,000 Woodside Monash Energy Partnership Research Scholarship represents just 0.00002% of Woodside’s 2024 profit of $5.6 billion, and just 0.0003% of Monash University Group’s $308 million consolidated net result in 2024.

“It gets worse. Monash has four projects funded by the Australian Coal Association Research Program, which aims to prolong the coal industry. Those grants are worth under $1 million.

“This is how cheaply the integrity of our universities is bought by malevolent companies like Woodside.

On this episode of Dollars & Sense, Greg and Elinor discuss Australia’s growing wealth gap, what Australians think about the government’s proposed superannuation tax changes, and what the escalating conflict in the Middle East means for the global economy.

This discussion was recorded on Wednesday 18 June 2025 and things may have changed since recording.

Our independence is our strength – and only you can make that possible. By donating to the Australia Institute’s End of Financial Year appeal today, you’ll help fund the research changing Australia for the better.

Host: Greg Jericho, Chief Economist, the Australia Institute and Centre for Future Work // @grogsgamut

Host: Elinor Johnston-Leek, Senior Content Producer, the Australia Institute // @elinorjohnstonleek

Show notes:

Wealthy Australians are worried we might realise how rigged the system is in their favour by Greg Jericho, Guardian Australia (June 2025)

Australia’s scandal-plagued university sector has today suffered another significant blow, with many slipping further down the QS World University Rankings.

The rankings of 70% of Australian universities have fallen, following revelations about a lack of accountability and scrutiny, poor financial management, exorbitant Vice-Chancellor salaries and lavish spending on consultants and corporate travel.

The Australia Institute has suggested an extensive list of reforms to fix the sector, including:

The Wrap with Amy Remeikis

One of the problems with hope is that it’s often left to fend for itself. People might work to maintain their hope that things will get better, but hope without action is essentially just delusion.

When hopes are dashed, the flip side is usually despair.

Which makes sense – you don’t have to do anything to despair. You just kind of slide into it.

It’s easy to hope. It’s just as easy to despair. Neither truly require you do anything except throw your hands up in the air and hope that someone will do something. And if that person who does the thing, does the wrong thing, well then you can despair. You had hope, it was dashed. Now you can be bitter. Despair. Because obviously you can’t do something. Right?

Recently I underwent surgery and when I came to, sore and hazed, my mind feeling as though it was coated in molasses, muscle memory had me reaching for my phone. I saw two things. Anthony Albanese again refusing to sanction Israel, despite rightly acknowledging Israel’s on-going blockade of aid to Gaza as an “outrage” and Labor approving the North West Shelf extension.

I did not feel despair. I felt rage. Not because I didn’t see it coming, but because we know they know better.

On this episode of Follow the Money, Allan Behm joins Ebony Bennett to discuss the Trump administration’s decision to review the AUKUS submarine deal, why Australia doesn’t need American Virginia-class boats anyway, and why the Australian and American governments have shared interests but not shared values.

You can sign our petition calling on the Australian Government to launch a parliamentary inquiry into AUKUS.

Our independence is our strength – and only you can make that possible. By donating to the Australia Institute’s End of Financial Year appeal today, you’ll help fund the research changing Australia for the better.

Guest: Allan Behm, Senior Advisor in International & Security Affairs, the Australia Institute

Host: Ebony Bennett, Deputy Director, the Australia Institute // @ebonybennett

Show notes:

AUKUS is a disaster for Australia. Trump has given us an out – let’s take it by Emma Shortis, The Sydney Morning Herald (June 2025)

The parliament has lost confidence in Liberal Premier Jeremy Rockliff, and so next month Tasmanians will go to the polls for the second time since March last year.

This is the system working as intended.

In the Westminster democracy Australia inherits from the United Kingdom, the government of the day and its ministers are responsible to parliament.

They answer to the representatives of the people.

The awesome powers Australians vest in their governments – unlimited by a bill of rights and granted without a direct popular vote – are supervised by the democratically elected parliament.

That said, Tasmanians are entitled to feel surprised that this term of power-sharing government ended so abruptly.

Most power-sharing parliaments are stable and see out the full term, according to the Australia Institute’s research.

NSW has its third power-sharing government in a row, as Labor governs with three independents in the Minns government, which followed the Perrottet and Berejiklian Coalition
governments without incident.

In the ACT, Labor and the Greens have collaborated for over 15 years – even as the details of the arrangement have changed.

The Gillard Labor government was very productive either in spite or because of power-sharing, making more laws than other governments, including ground-breaking reform like the NDIS, clean energy future package, cigarette plain packaging and expanding Medicare to dental for children.

Polling conducted by YouGov for the Australia Institute shows that twice as many people support the federal government’s proposed changes as oppose them.

Some 52 per cent want the tax concessions on the earnings from these super-sized super balances cut back, compared to just 26 per cent who don’t, the poll shows. A little more than one in five were undecided.

That’s despite ubiquitous media coverage of the wailings of the worried wealthy. The media’s focus on complaints from the tiny proportion of Australians impacted – about 80,000 people – has failed to produce widespread concern among the more than 99 per cent of Australians who have less than $3 million in super.

That’s not surprising when one considers just how far most people are from that level of retirement savings. According to ATO data, the average super balance is a mere $182,000 for men and $146,000 for women. For those between 60 and 65, it’s just over $400,000 for men and $318,000 for women.

Despite this, people tend to overestimate the likelihood they will be affected by the change. About one in five of those surveyed thought it would impact on their retirement plans. The reality is only one in 200 have super balances above the level that attracts the higher tax rate.

The Australia Institute is saddened to hear of the passing of the Honourable Stephen Charles AO KC.

Stephen was a former judge of the Victorian Supreme Court of Appeal and member of the National Integrity Committee, which, under the auspices of The Australia Institute, made the case for effective anti-corruption commissions.

Stephen worked tirelessly toward the creation of a federal anti-corruption watchdog. He was ultimately successful when the Parliament passed the National Anti-Corruption Commission Act in 2022 – although the NACC remains restricted in its ability to hold public inquiries, an unnecessary restriction Stephen warned against in 2018.

Last year, with his daughter Lucy Hamilton, he wrote an essay in Meanjin reflecting on the Indigenous Voice to Parliament and Australia’s democracy crisis titled “The Year in Truth-telling”.

Our thoughts are with Stephen’s family.

The post Vale — The Honourable Stephen Charles AO KC appeared first on The Australia Institute.

YouGov conducted a national survey of 1,535 voters on behalf of The Australia Institute between 6 and 11 June 2025, using an online survey polling methodology. Full details are provided in the methodology statement.

The poll is compliant with the Australian Polling Council’s requirements.

The margin of error on the effective sample size is 3.2%.

The post Polling – Superannuation appeared first on The Australia Institute.

Under the proposed changes, Australians with super balances over $3 million would pay 30% tax – rather than 15% – on earnings above $3 million.

According to Australian Tax Office data, the current average super balance in Australia is around $182,000 for men and $146,000 for women. Among those aged 60 to 65, it’s around $402,000 for men and $318,000 for women.

The poll, conducted by YouGov, shows 52% of Australians support the proposed changes, compared to 26% who oppose them, while a similar figure (22%) don’t know or are unsure.

Key findings:

25% of Australians say they “strongly support” reducing tax concessions for people with super balances over $3 million, while 27% support the changes.

14% of Australians say they “strongly oppose” reducing tax concessions for people with super balances over $3 million, while 12% oppose the changes.

One in five of Australians think the changes will have an impact on their retirement plans, but the reality is that only one in 200 people have super balances that would be affected by the changes.

“Twice as many Australians support the proposal to reduce tax concessions on superannuation balances over $3 million as oppose the idea,” said Richard Denniss, Executive Director of The Australia Institute.

On this episode of After America, Malcolm Turnbull, Australia’s 29th Prime Minister, joins Dr Emma Shortis to discuss Trump’s AUKUS review, Anthony Albanese’s meeting with Trump, and why Australia doesn’t share values with the US administration.

This discussion was recorded on Monday 16 June 2025 and things may have changed since recording.

You can sign our petition calling on the Australian Government to launch a parliamentary inquiry into AUKUS.

Our independence is our strength – and only you can make that possible. By donating to the Australia Institute’s End of Financial Year appeal today, you’ll help fund the research changing Australia for the better.

Order After America: Australia and the new world order or become a foundation subscriber to Vantage Point at australiainstitute.org.au/store.

Guest: Malcolm Turnbull, Australia’s 29th Prime Minister // @TurnbullMalcolm

Host: Emma Shortis, Director, International & Security Affairs, the Australia Institute // @emmashortis

Show notes:

On this episode, Paul Barclay talks with Kieran Pender, associate legal director at the Human Rights Law Centre. Kieran says that current laws leave whistleblowers unsupported, vulnerable to retribution and liable for prosecution. Australia needs to lower the cost of courage in the public interest.

This discussion was recorded on Wednesday 29 January 2025, and things may have changed since the recording.

Order What’s the Big Idea? 32 Big Ideas for a Better Australia now, via the Australia Institute website.

Guest: Kieran Pender, Associate Legal Director at the Human Rights Law Center // @KieranHRLC

Host: Paul Barclay, Walkley Award winning journalist and broadcaster // @PaulBarclay

Show notes:

Whistleblowing While You Work: Using Rewards for Whistleblowing to Uncover White-collar Crime by Jack Thrower, the Australia Institute (October 2024)

It was to be their very own tax that would grow with the economy. They could use that revenue to fund their responsibility to provide hospitals, schools, aged care, and housing, to name but a few.

But it turns out that the GST isn’t a growth tax.

GST revenue has grown slower than the economy and certainly slower than the cost of the services that they need to supply.

The ACT government needs to efficiently manage all the money it spends.

It needs to be striving to make the most of what it has. But that goal is being used as an excuse to accept that vital parts of government are underfunded.

Efficiencies are not going to solve the chronic shortage of public housing. They are not going to solve long hospital waiting lists.

We need to accept that the ACT government, as well as all the other state governments are lacking the revenue to do anything but fiddle at the edges of some of our biggest issues.

Fortunately, Australia is a wealthy, low-tax country and there are plenty of ways we can raise additional revenue.

The Greens’ recent proposal to increase the top rate of payroll tax is a great example of how more revenue can be raised from those who can most afford it.

But at press conferences in all three nations, reporters asked about Australia’s treatment of people from the Pacific who come to Australia on temporary work visas – it’s called the PALM scheme (which stands Pacific Australian labour mobility). In Vanuatu’s capital of Port Villa, which sends the highest number of people to work as part of the PALM scheme, Senator Wong assured one journalist that “PALM workers are entitled to the same conditions, legal conditions as Australian workers, and they should be treated as such.” Who wouldn’t agree?

Next time you’re looking over your pay slip, or looking for work, think about the basic rights you get that PALM workers don’t.

Australia Institute research, released more than a year ago, recommends Australia follow the French lead and do the same.

In May 2024, The Australia Institute’s Textile Waste report revealed that Australian shoppers contribute to fast fashion waste more than any others on earth, surpassing Americans as the biggest textile consumers, per capita, on the planet.

Fast fashion has grown exponentially in recent years, with the exploding influence of Chinese brands Temu and Shein. Both sell huge quantities of cheap, quickly made, quickly shipped garments all around the world. They’re manufactured using high volumes of polyester, a fossil fuel-derived fabric that is plastic.

Many end up in landfill within 12 months of purchase.

“As one of the world’s biggest consumers of clothes, shoes and bags, Australia should have acted sooner to reduce the mountains of textile waste in this country,” said Nina Gbor, Circular Economy & Waste Program Director at The Australia Institute.

“To protect the environment and Australian fashion brands, we need to drastically reduce waste at the source by penalising brands that mass produce incredibly cheap, low-quality clothing that is often worn just a handful of times before ending up in the bin.

“France has introduced laws which will tax fast fashion garments 5 Euros (approx. $9) each, which will double by 2030.

“The Australia Institute recommended a similar scheme for Australia more than a year ago.

On this episode of Dollars & Sense, Greg and Elinor discuss some of the bogus claims about productivity, why giving fossil fuel subsidies to fossil fuel companies is a bad idea, and the latest Trump tariff news.

This discussion was recorded on Thursday 12 June 2025 and things may have changed since recording.

Our independence is our strength – and only you can make that possible. By donating to the Australia Institute’s End of Financial Year appeal today, you’ll help fund the research changing Australia for the better.

Host: Greg Jericho, Chief Economist, the Australia Institute and Centre for Future Work // @grogsgamut

Host: Elinor Johnston-Leek, Senior Content Producer, the Australia Institute // @elinorjohnstonleek

Show notes:

Wealthy Australians are worried we might realise how rigged the system is in their favour by Greg Jericho, Guardian Australia (June 2025)

The US president has given the Albanese government the circuit breaker it needs to walk away from AUKUS.

Despite the frothing at the mouth in some mainstream media outlets this morning, Australians are unlikely to mourn the impending death of the deal.

Polling conducted for The Australia Institute during the election campaign found that 54% of Australians want a more independent foreign policy over a closer alliance with the United States.

An earlier poll found more Australians consider Donald Trump a greater threat to world peace than Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping.

“It’s highly likely Donald Trump will tank the whole deal,” said Emma Shortis, Director of the International & Security Affairs program at The Australia Institute.

“It was always a terrible deal for Australia anyway.

“It was conceived in secrecy and born in haste.

“Let’s face it, we were never likely to get any submarines – certainly not within a remotely workable timeframe.

“All AUKUS did was tie us ever closer to an increasingly volatile and aggressive America.

“Scott Morrison gave Anthony Albanese little time or choice but to support AUKUS. Now, Donald Trump has given him a golden opportunity to get out.

Australians pick up the tab for billions of litres of diesel used by mining companies each year, under the fuel tax credits scheme.

It costs taxpayers more than $10 billion a year and is predicted to grow to more than $13 billion by 2028/29.

Not only is this subsidy a drag on the economy, it serves as a disincentive for fossil fuel companies to transition to renewable energy.

Fortescue Metals Chief Executive Dino Otranto is today calling for a $50 million cap on the amount companies can claim for the diesel they use.

“That would be a good start,” said Greg Jericho, Chief Economist at The Australia Institute.

“This scheme is nothing more than a fossil fuel subsidy – and the Australian government promised to scrap fossil fuel subsidies way back in 2009.

“The theory behind the scheme is that money raised by fuel excise goes to maintaining public roads, and mining companies operate largely on private roads.

“But if this is all about user pays, then how about we have a user pays scheme for the damage fossil fuel companies unleash in emissions, which make natural disasters more frequent and severe?

“How about they pay fair royalties or petroleum resource rent tax for Australia’s resources which they extract and sell at huge profit?

“This scheme costs Australia more than it spends on the Air Force and more than twice what it spends on foreign aid.

The government is confronting major challenges in its second term. But despite what we’re often told, there is no shortage of solutions – governments just need the courage to implement them. On this episode of Follow the Money, we hear from four leading policy thinkers – Richard Denniss, Maiy Azize, Polly Hemming and Thomas Mayo – about making big, bold ideas a reality.

Find the What’s the Big Idea? series via our website or wherever you get your podcasts.

Our independence is our strength – and only you can make that possible. By donating to the Australia Institute’s End of Financial Year appeal today, you’ll help fund the research changing Australia for the better.

Guest: Richard Denniss, Executive Director, the Australia Institute // @richarddenniss

Guest: Maiy Azize, National Spokesperson for Everybody’s Home and Deputy Director of Anglicare Australia // @MaiyAzize

Guest: Polly Hemming, Director of Climate & Energy Program, the Australia Institute // @pollyjhemming

The best way to help the Tomago smelter, and every other electricity consumer in Australia, is to restrict gas exports.

Australia faces three options:

• One, leave the fate of the smelter and other heavy industry in the hands of the electricity market, risking its loss.
• Two, pay subsidies to Rio Tinto that have been estimated into the billions, increasing taxes or cutting services for other Australians.
• Three, make the multinational gas exporters supply gas at reasonable prices.

“The reason the fate of the smelter and gas exports are linked is because gas-fired electricity generators tend to set the price in Australia’s electricity market,”  said Rod Campbell, Research Director at The Australia Institute.

“As pointed out by Peter Dutton and Chris Bowen during the election campaign, Australia exports a lot of gas. If gas exports are limited, Australia’s wholesale gas price will come down and electricity prices will come down too.

“Aluminium businesses live or die based on electricity costs. So it looks like the Australian Government needs to choose between the interests of the gas exporters and aluminium manufacturers.”

The post Limit gas exports to save smelter appeared first on The Australia Institute.

It was in the rural Victorian seat of Indi, encompassing Wodonga and Wangaratta, that independent Cathy McGowan was drafted by community group Voices of Indi.

In 2013, McGowan delivered the Liberal Party its only loss when she won the formerly safe seat from Sophie Mirabella.

The subsequent success of inner city “teals” – community independents like Zali Steggall, Monique Ryan and Kate Chaney – is evidence that Liberal neglect of classical-liberal and metropolitan voters has come back to haunt them.

But soul searching is due in the bush as well, particularly among Nationals. So far, they have been criticised for unforced errors (like quitting the Liberal-National Coalition only to rejoin it days later) rather than structural weaknesses, like their preference of mining interests over agricultural ones and their inability to win back seats lost since the 1990s.

Conditions are ripe for the Nationals to face challenges from independents on the same scale as those already faced by the Liberals.

And while Indi’s “Voices of” model of community organising and drafting candidates was an innovation, the country has long been friendly to independents.

On this episode, Paul Barclay is joined by former senator Christine Milne who brings her expertise and insights on how proportional representation and minority governments can be much more democratic, diverse, and help reduce corporate lobbying power.

This discussion was recorded on Monday 27 January 2025, and things may have changed since the recording.

Order What’s the Big Idea? 32 Big Ideas for a Better Australia now, via the Australia Institute website.

Guest: Christine Milne AO, Former Leader of the Australian Greens // @ChristineMilne

Host: Paul Barclay, Walkley Award winning journalist and broadcaster // @PaulBarclay

Show notes:

Power sharing in Australian parliament by Bill Browne and Richard Denniss, the Australia Institute (July 2024)

Representative, Still: The role of the Senate in our Democracy by Bill Browne and Ben Oquist, the Australia Institute (March 2021)

On this episode of After America, Dr Emma Shortis and Angus Blackman discuss Trump’s dystopian presidency, the administration’s renewed pressure on the Australian government to increase defence spending, and the end of the Trump-Musk bromance.

This discussion was recorded on Friday 6 June 2025 and things may have changed since recording.

Our independence is our strength – and only you can make that possible. By donating to the Australia Institute’s End of Financial Year appeal today, you’ll help fund the research changing Australia for the better.

Host: Emma Shortis, Director, International & Security Affairs, the Australia Institute // @emmashortis

Host: Angus Blackman, Producer, the Australia Institute // @AngusRB

Show notes:

‘Australia must resist US bullying to increase its military spending’ by Allan Behm, Guardian Australia (June 2025)

On this episode of Dollars & Sense, Greg and Elinor discuss the latest quarterly GDP figures, why the above-inflation increase to minimum and award wages is a good thing, and the latest from Tariffland.

This discussion was recorded on Thursday 5 June 2025 and things may have changed since recording.

Our independence is our strength – and only you can make that possible. By donating to the Australia Institute’s End of Financial Year appeal today, you’ll help fund the research changing Australia for the better.

Host: Greg Jericho, Chief Economist, the Australia Institute and Centre for Future Work // @grogsgamut

Host: Elinor Johnston-Leek, Senior Content Producer, the Australia Institute // @elinorjohnstonleek

Show notes:

The good news? Household living standards are on the rise. The bad news? Just about everything else by Greg Jericho, Guardian Australia (June 2025)

Free-to-air TV shows more than a million gambling ads a year – and this is not to mention the online torrent.

If 85 per cent of 12-17 year olds have seen a gambling ad on TV in the past month, is it any wonder that young people talk about betting odds like they once did player stats?

The $244.3 billion in bets made by Australians in in 2022-23 makes us the world’s biggest gamblers, and the saturation level of advertising is probably one reason that since 2019, average gambling losses have increased to almost $2500 a year – that’s more than the average home pays for a year’s worth of electricity.

As a nation we lost a collective $31.5 billion, which is comparable to the size of the entire Northern Territory economy ($33.1 billion), and greater than the $21 billion lost to gambling in all of Las Vegas.

As if the harm gambling causes to adults isn’t bad enough, analysis by the Australia Institute shows that large numbers of Australians start gambling well before they reach the legal minimum age of 18.

Almost one in three (30 per cent) 12-17-year-olds gamble, and this increases to almost half (46 per cent) when young people turn 18. More than 900,000 teenagers (aged 12-19) gambled in the past year.

On this episode of Follow the Money, Walkley Award-winning journalist Stephen Long and Elinor Johnston-Leek discuss the Federal Government’s decision to sign a provisional extension to Woodside’s North West Shelf gas project and the impact that will have on the irreplaceable Murujuga rock art.

Our independence is our strength – and only you can make that possible. By donating to the Australia Institute’s End of Financial Year appeal today, you’ll help fund the research changing Australia for the better.

Host: Stephen Long, Stephen Long, Senior Fellow and Contributing Editor, the Australia Institute // @StephenLongAus

Host: Elinor Johnston-Leek, Senior Content Producer, the Australia Institute // @elinorjohnstonleek

Show notes:

The fight to save Murujuga, the Australia Institute (May 2025)

Gas export approval puts gas corporations before Australians, the Australia Institute (May 2025)

Theme music: Blue Dot Sessions

He told regional leaders that they bludged off America’s generosity, getting security on the cheap and leaving it to America to do the heavy lifting of containing China by maintaining the strategic balance – whatever that might be. All they needed to do was invest much more in defence to help the US maintain its primacy. And behind his shrill calls for more money on bombs and their delivery systems was a growing US alarmism directed at China.

Hegseth spoke about the imminence of the China threat. America may well need an enemy to define its ambition and to sustain its sense of insecurity. But the question is: do we? The countries of south-east Asia have made their position pretty clear: they just do not believe it. Nor do they want to get sucked into a contest between titans. As the proverb has it, “when elephants are dancing, grasshoppers get out of the way”.

Hustlers evidently do not appreciate irony. Notwithstanding the claims of massive increases in China’s defence spending, it runs a defence budget that hovers around 1.7% of GDP, compared with America’s 3.4%. In dollar terms, China spends around USD 300bn per annum. America spends around USD 900bn, accounting for about 40% of global arms spending.

These expenditures dwarf everyone else’s. In the US case, they contribute to a deficit overhang bigger than its GDP. For our part, without any additional defence spending, we are already the 12th largest contributor to the global industrial-military complex.

This will ensure that the real wages of workers on award wages will rise at a time when the overall real wages of all Australian workers are also recovering.

The cost-of-living increases of the past three years have been most acutely felt by those on low incomes – especially due to sharp increases in rents and mortgages.

This will provide some much-needed relief.

Australia Institute research shows the real value of award wages has fallen nearly 4% below September 2020 levels. This increase will still see award wages 1% lower than they were five years ago.

“Our research has shown that over the past 30 years, there has been no connection between increases in award wages and inflation,” said Greg Jericho, Chief Economist at The Australia Institute.

“As a result, any claims from business groups that this will drive inflation are without foundation.”

They exceed those voting for the Liberal and National Coalition – which is, at least theoretically, the “alternative government”.

At 33.6 per cent of the vote, independent and minor party voters are almost as numerous as the 34.6 per cent who cast their first preference for the Labor government.

Of course, independent and minor party candidates represent a variety of ideologies, approaches and personalities – although, as the last fortnight has demonstrated, the same is true for major party candidates.

The Australian electoral system allows every voter to express their preferences, without reducing the effectiveness of their vote.

Some Greens voters prefer an independent to the Labor candidate; others prefer Labor. Some Liberal voters would settle for a non-Labor candidate such as a Green or independent; others will plump for Labor if the Liberal doesn’t make it to the final two.

This system, called full preferential voting, is why you must number every box on your ballot paper. You must express a preference between every candidate running to be your local member.

It means that in most cases you do not need to worry about voting “tactically” – your vote will still help decide between the final two candidates.

The trade-off is that counting votes takes a bit longer than it does in the US or Britain, where they use “first past the post” voting.

The Murujuga Rock Art is a unique 40,000-year-old collection of rock engravings on the Dampier Archipelago in the Pilbara region of Western Australia.

These irreplaceable petroglyphs are twice as old as France’s Lascaux cave paintings and eight times older than the pyramids.

Murujuga is nationally heritage-listed and could soon be recognised by UNESCO for its world heritage value.

But it is facing destruction from acid rain caused by nearby gas processing. Gas processing that does not need to happen at Murujuga.

The new Australian Environment Minister Murray Watt, however, decided to approve a 50-year extension to Woodside’s North West Shelf gas project. This could have devastating consequences for the rock art.

A video report presented by Stephen Long, Senior Fellow, and Contributing Editor at the Australia Institute on Ngarluma land.

Cinematography and Editing by Elinor Johnston-Leek, Senior Content Producer at the Australia Institute

Featuring:

There seems to be an endless supply of news articles on this topic, ranging from concerned tutting to full-blown doomsaying and accusations of class war. Almost all this coverage misses the mark; these changes, while modest, are an important first step in reforming Australia’s broken and unequal superannuation system.

So, what’s changing?

Currently, most people get a tax concession on their superannuation earnings (the money made by your super investments). Rather than being taxed at your marginal tax rate, the money made from your super investments is only taxed at 15 per cent. That is a lot less than the top income tax rate of 45 per cent (plus the Medicare levy).

But the government is proposing to raise the tax on superannuation balances of over $3 million. These people will pay an additional 15 per cent on earnings.

Importantly though, it is only on the amount above $3 million. For instance, if you have $4 million in super, you will only pay additional tax on a quarter of your earnings.

The tax is projected to raise $2.3 billion in its first full year, and $40 billion over a decade.

If $3 million in super sounds like a lot of money; that’s because it is. Very few of us have anywhere near that amount of super. According to Treasury, the tax will initially affect 80,000 people or one in 200 (0.5 per cent) super account holders. For comparison, according to the most recent Tax Office data, less than half of people in their 60s have more than $250,000 in super.

Because, after blowing up the show on Tuesday with his own Groucho Marx “principles” (“those are my principles, and if you don’t like them, well, I have others”), David Littleproud has announced that the Coalition’s divorce is on hold.

In modern parlance, the Coalition has been reduced to a situationship.

Liberal leader Sussan Ley had been due to announce her shadow ministry on Thursday, while Littleproud was to announce the spokespeople for his little party. Both put their announcements on hold after deciding to re-enter negotiations for the new Coalition agreement.

Ask anyone inside the Nationals what happened and you’ll get different versions. They all agree that there was a meeting to decide portfolio spokespeople. That suddenly the spokespeople were told to hold their fire. That party heavyweights, current and former, had spent 48 hours pressing for calmer heads to prevail. That doubts began to creep in immediately when it became clear the response to the party room decision was not one of back, but forehead, slapping.

Party elders immediately began urging Littleproud and those pushing the split, including Victorian senator Bridget McKenzie, to reconsider. The panic button was hit as it became clear the shadow ministry was about to be announced.

“The moment Sussan announced her cabinet, it would be over for us,” one Nationals MP said.

On this episode of After America, Matt Duss joins Emma Shortis to sort the signal from the noise in the Trump administration’s foreign policy. They discuss Trump’s approach to the Middle East, its negotiations with Iran, and the continued influence of China hawks in his Cabinet.

This discussion was recorded on Wednesday 28 May 2025 and things may have changed since recording.

Order After America: Australia and the new world order or become a foundation subscriber to Vantage Point at australiainstitute.org.au/store.

Our independence is our strength – and only you can make that possible. By donating to the Australia Institute’s End of Financial Year appeal today, you’ll help fund the research changing Australia for the better.

Guest: Matt Duss, Executive Vice President, Center for International Policy // @mattduss

Host: Emma Shortis, Director, International & Security Affairs, the Australia Institute // @emmashortis

Photo: The White House/Flickr (U.S. Government work)

On this episode, Paul Barclay talks with Alex Sloan about the importance of independent public broadcasters, why they need to be well-funded in an increasingly privately-owned media landscape, and how they are the barometer of a strong democracy.

This discussion was recorded on Wednesday 19 March 2025, and things may have changed since the recording.

Order What’s the Big Idea? 32 Big Ideas for a Better Australia now, via the Australia Institute website.

Guest: Alex Sloan, former ABC broadcaster and award-winning journalist and interviewer

Host: Paul Barclay, Walkley Award winning journalist and broadcaster // @PaulBarclay

Show notes:

Submission: An independent ABC for a strong democracy by Benjamin Walters and Bill Browne, the Australia Institute (November 2023)

Royal Commissions and inquiries prompted by ABC journalism by Bill Browne, the Australia Institute (August 2023)

On this episode of Dollars & Sense, Matt Grudnoff joins Elinor to discuss how the Government could help first home-buyers by restricting the ability of investors to borrow, what the fuss is about ‘unrealised gains’, and why the Government’s proposed superannuation tax changes are “a good first step.”

This discussion was recorded on Thursday 29 May 2025 and things may have changed since recording.

Order After America: Australia and the new world order or become a foundation subscriber to Vantage Point at australiainstitute.org.au/store.

Our independence is our strength – and only you can make that possible. By donating to the Australia Institute’s End of Financial Year appeal today, you’ll help fund the research changing Australia for the better.

Host: Matt Grudnoff, Senior Economist, the Australia Institute // @mattgrudnoff

Host: Elinor Johnston-Leek, Senior Content Producer, the Australia Institute // @elinorjohnstonleek

Show notes:

With a huge majority and a climate-friendly Senate, this government is in an optimal position to stop the expansion of gas and coal and to plan a phase-out.

Australia Institute research shows:

• The North West Shelf project has caused WA gas and electricity prices to triple since it was granted access to domestic gas in 2020.
• The extension will see around $215 billion worth of gas given away royalty-free.
• No gas exporter has ever paid petroleum resource rent tax and most pay zero royalties.
• Gas exporters have made $100 billion in windfall profits exporting Australian gas since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

“This term of parliament will not be about politics, it will be about Labor’s priorities,” said Rod Campbell, Research Director at The Australia Institute.

“The government can use its historic majority to prioritise expanding the export gas industry, or it can take real action on climate, protect the country and its people.

On this episode of Follow the Money, Greg Jericho, Chief Economist at the Australia Institute, joins Glenn Connley to discuss the government’s modest proposal to change the superannuation tax concessions and the bizarre backlash to the policy.

This discussion was recorded on Tuesday 28 May 2025 and things may have changed.

Order After America: Australia and the new world order or become a foundation subscriber to our Vantage Point series and save 25% on the Australia Institute website.

Guest: Greg Jericho, Chief Economist, the Australia Institute // @grogsgamut

Host: Glenn Connley, Senior Media Advisor, the Australia Institute // @glennconnley

Show notes:

Don’t be fooled, only the very richest will ever have more than $3m in super by Greg Jericho, the Australia Institute (May 2025)

Updated 30/05/2025

The outer-Melbourne electorate of Calwell was named “Australia’s most unpredictable seat” by The Age after the election and was – aside from those going to a recount – the last seat to be called. The AEC labelled the counting process for the seat “likely the most complex in Australia’s history”.

The count is complicated because, while Labor led on primary votes, the Liberals, Greens, and three independents each had a significant share of the vote. The AEC had no idea which candidate would make it to the final two alongside Labor, and then if any of them could win from there. In a very rare case, the AEC had to conduct a full count of the seat to an estimate of the final result, which still hasn’t finished (though Labor now seems assured of victory).

Calwell is extra interesting, because it is diverse. It’s one of the handful of electorates in Australia where most people speak a language other than English at home, as well as having one of the largest Muslim populations. Two independents and the Greens candidate made Labor’s response to the genocide in Gaza a significant issue in their campaign.