If you believe the markets, there won’t be an interest rate cut after this week’s Reserve Bank meeting.
You’re likely to hear a bunch of reasons but missing from them is the most important one: The RBA has no confidence in what inflation is going to do and it is continually worried that it is about to shoot up.
In the past, the RBA has been confident in its inflation predictions. It needed to be.
The impact of interest rates on the economy takes time and you need to set them for where you think inflation is going to be in six to 12 months, not where they have been in the past.
But in the past decade, the central bank has made some spectacular mistakes about movements in inflation. The biggest was former Governor Philip Lowe saying interest rates wouldn’t rise until at least 2024.
He then had to rapidly increase them in 2022.
To be fair to Lowe, he did have some caveats on that prediction. But the public, including the media, largely took it as a promise.
The RBA was also caught out before the pandemic, keeping interest rates too high because it thought inflation was about to increase. It never did and the subsequent Reserve Bank review criticised it for that inaction.
Both of these episodes highlight that the RBA has misunderstood the main drivers of inflation.
This seems to have shaken it, and instead of looking forward with confidence, it is looking behind in fear.



