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The specter of regime change is haunting the Trump coalition.

Enthusiasts and critics of the U.S./Israeli-Iran War are arguing over its justification, desirability, and feasibility (or lack thereof) based in part on whether or not it is a war aimed at regime change. The Trump Administration has thus far phrased its public rationales for the war in terms of degrading Iran’s military capacities, eliminating its nuclear program, and ending its support for proxy terror groups—with a view to encouraging and enabling rather than directly effecting regime change. Trump concluded his February 28 announcement of Operation Epic Fury by addressing the Iranian people: “When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take.”

Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been explicit for years, as well as in the opening days of Operation Roaring Lion, that regime change in Tehran is an Israeli goal. The Israeli Air Force seems to have taken the lead in the decapitation strikes against Iranian leadership, beginning with Ayatollah Khamenei, who was killed in the opening salvo of the war.

Here’s my crank theory. If you think about authoritarianism from a rhetorical/mobilizing passion perspective, rather than a political arrangement, policy agenda, or place on the fantastical left/right axis, then it’s most useful to define authoritarians as people who believe that the ideal world is one with a stable hierarchy of submission and domination. Authoritarians believe that the in-group is entitled to dominate others, and should not be held to the same standards as those “below” them on the hierarchy.

It finds domestic diesel, petrol, gas and electricity prices will all rise, which will push up the prices of a broad range of products and services almost immediately.

From a diplomatic point of view – as Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney reminded us last week – Australia could use its influence as a ‘middle power’, with global influence and a close relationship to the US.

Key findings:

• Global energy prices will increase.
• Gas, electricity and petrol prices paid by Australian households will rise.
• Multinational gas companies exporting Australian gas will profit.
• Australian governments will raise very little extra revenue.

While Australia is not a major oil producer, it is the second biggest liquefied natural gas exporter in the world. Unlike other energy superpowers, Australia does not receive a significant tax or royalty benefit when prices rise. The situation is worse for Australian consumers, who will pay surging world prices for Australia’s own resources.

Note: I submitted a shorter version of this piece as an op-ed to the Santa Fe Mexican. I've been informed that rather than publish the submission, the news side of the paper plans to run a story "so people who are going to the [No Kings 3 events] in Santa Fe will know what do/where to go." That sort of coverage is certainly welcome but it doesn't speak to the unconstitutionality of the City of Santa Fe's codes and regulations pertaining to the use of streets and sidewalks for public assembly and political expression.

On March 28, people will gather in Santa Fe for No Kings 3, to celebrate and fight for constitutional democracy in the United States. They will exercise their First Amendment rights to assemble and freely express their views.

That is, they will if local government lets them. So far the City of Santa Fe isn't giving me much confidence.

As I quickly learned when I set out to get a street use permit for No Kings 3 in Santa Fe, the City's municipal ordinances and implementing regulations are a mess: vague, confusing, complex. They practically invite City officials and police to apply them unconstitutionally. Nevertheless, I hoped the City and its Police Department would resolve in practice the constitutional problems raised by the ordinances and regulations on their face. Unfortunately, the City and the Police took even more blatantly unconstitutional steps.

Around 30,000 people from Pacific Island nations and Timor Leste hold PALM visas, which allow them to work in Australia on a temporary basis, but widespread “disengagement” means thousands are left to survive in Australia without a formal visa.

Today, Welcoming Communities and the Mayoral Alliance for the Pacific will convene a forum at Australian Parliament House to call on the Commonwealth government to reform visa conditions to give workers genuine freedom to change employers, improve access to healthcare, and expand family-inclusion to build fairer, stronger communities.

Title: PALM Futures Forum: Community-centred Visa Reform

Time: 11:00am – 1:00pm

Location: Parliament House Canberra

Australia Institute research shows that the PALM scheme generates almost $1 billion in economic value, but less than $200 million ends up being remitted to the Pacific.

Quotes attributable to Aleem Ali, CEO of Welcoming Communities.

“Fair work should mean exactly that. Yet the PALM Scheme falls short for people from the Pacific working in our farms, factories and aged care homes.

“The PALM Futures Forum brings together workers, unions, employers, community members, researchers and policymakers to deliver better outcomes for everyone. The Forum seeks to shift the “Pacific Family” rhetoric into action and ensure that Pacific workers can access the same rights as their Australian colleagues.

On this episode of Follow the Money and After America, Dr Emma Shortis and Ebony Bennett discuss the illegal US-Israel war in Iran, the implications of the conflict for the Middle East, and why Australian personnel were on board an American nuclear-powered submarine when it sank an Iranian warship.

This episode was recorded on Tuesday 10 March.

What we owe the water: It’s time for a fossil fuel treaty by Kumi Naidoo is available now for just $19.95. Use the code ‘PODVP’ at checkout to get free shipping.

You can also subscribe to the Vantage Point series to get four essays a year on some of the most pressing issues facing Australia and the world.

Guest: Emma Shortis, Director, International & Security Affairs, the Australia Institute // @emmashortis

Host: Ebony Bennett, Deputy Director, the Australia Institute // @ebonybennett

Show notes:

It is often believed that the common-law rule of birthright citizenship was that mere birth on the sovereign’s soil was sufficient to create such citizenship. That is incorrect. Although that statement is an approximation of the rule that usually gets the correct result, the precise common-law rule was birth on the sovereign’s soil to parents under the sovereign’s protection.

That is how Sir Edward Coke described the rule in Calvin’s Case, the leading common-law decision from 1608. Aliens from friendly countries with permission to be in the realm were under the sovereign’s temporary protection and owed in exchange a temporary allegiance to the sovereign. They were, while in the realm, natural subjects of the king. That is why their children born in the realm were natural-born subjects. In contrast, the children born of invading soldiers were not birthright subjects “although born upon [the king’s] soil,” because they were not born “under the ligeance of a subject” or “under the protection of the king.” That is, a natural-born subject is one born to another subject, a subject who was under the protection of the king. Invaders did not count, but aliens were subjects of the king if they were under his protection and, in exchange, explicitly or implicitly, swore allegiance to him.

What’s often lost amid discussions about America’s reliance on Chinese manufacturing is the vulnerability of our most basic chemical inputs. Pharmaceutical ingredients may not hold the same futuristic mystique as essential computing components, but they are no less vital to our society. In fact, just one vitamin is necessary to make effective supplements, fortified processed food, and nutritionally viable baby formula.

Vitamin B12 (or cobalamin) is one of the most complex compounds human beings have ever attempted to synthesize. Naturally produced by bacteria in a process involving more than 30 genes and many enzymatic steps, B12 required the combined efforts of more than 100 researchers and a Nobel laureate to reproduce in a lab.

Mass production of B12 relies on fermentation. Apart from being the global leader in manufacturing, China is also the leader in that process, holding 70% of the world’s capacity. It is no wonder, then, that the United States has relied on the Chinese to produce its vitamins.

A global shift toward youth enfranchisement

Amid worries about Canada’s aging population, democratic backsliding, and the risk to youth’s civic voice, there’s a promising trend to talk about: In a growing number of jurisdictions, 16- and 17-year-olds are gaining the right to vote. This policy adoption is reflective of a growing body of research demonstrating the political competence of this age group.

Some democracies such as Argentina, Belgium, Germany, Malta, Scotland, and Wales have introduced lower voting ages for certain jurisdictions over the last two decades. When experts examined the civic competencies of 16-18 year old voters in Austria where they are able to participate in national and European Parliament elections, teens demonstrated levels of voting decision-making and engagement that matched adults.

Over the last two decades, the European Union (EU) has faced a series of intertwined crises, including the Global Financial Crisis in 2008 and the structural adjustment programmes imposed by the EU and the IMF on several member states; the increase of flows of refugees triggered by war and famines and the humanitarian disaster caused by Fortress Europe; Brexit and the rise of Euroscepticism. In turn, new crises have emerged and further intensified the previous ones: the Covid-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine and the impending climate catastrophe. To capture the multiple, interrelated, and self-reinforcing characters of the crises affecting global capitalism and European integration, the term ‘polycrisis’ – originally coined by the French complex theorists Edgar Morin and Anne Brigitte Kern – has become increasingly popular, both among scholars and European elites alike (Tooze, 2022). As we argue in our recently published co-edited volume, Critical Political Economy of the European Polycrisis, Critical Political Economy (CPE) is well placed to contribute to this debate. In this blog post, we outline the purpose underpinning this volume and present some of the key findings.

A little more than a week into the U.S.’s campaign against the Iranian regime—which the Pentagon classifies as a below peer level—Central Command is pulling interceptors from the Indo-Pacific to keep the defensive umbrella intact over the Persian Gulf.

How is this possible when every major strategy document of the 21st century promised that the United States military could handle what lay ahead?

The 2001 Quadrennial Defense Review, which replaced the Cold War two-war framework, pledged to “swiftly defeat” aggression in two theaters while winning decisively in one. The 2018 National Defense Strategy shifted the frame to Great Power competition, assuring Congress that the joint force could mount sufficient deterrence in three regions, fight and win one major conflict, and maintain the ability to deter a second. The 2022 National Defense Strategy introduced “integrated deterrence,” which described a force that could simultaneously address the “pacing threat” of China, the “acute threat” of Russia, and persistent challenges in the Middle East.

One of the ways it’s possible to know that a political group is frightened is when they start to lie about opponents.

The world’s chocolate economy is built on an uncomfortable neocolonial paradox: Africa produces most of the cocoa beans, but the Global North captures most of the value through processing, branding, marketing, and retail gatekeeping. This is a classic case of neocolonial extraction from the Global South. Let’s start with the core fact that rarely makes it into “ethical chocolate” campaigns: cocoa is overwhelmingly an African commodity. Cacao is a non-native colonial crop that was introduced to Africa by European empires in the 19th century.

On this episode of After America, Elizabeth Pancotti from Washington DC-based think tank Groundwork Collaborative joins Dr Emma Shortis to discuss the State of the Union, Trump’s vile attack on Somali-Americans, and how tariffs are driving up prices in a deeply unequal American economy.

This discussion was recorded on Friday 27 February.

After America: Australia and the new world order is available now via Australia Institute Press. Use the code ‘PODVP’ at checkout to get free shipping.

Guest: Elizabeth Pancotti, Managing Director of Policy and Advocacy, Groundwork Collaborative // @ENPancotti

Host: Emma Shortis, Director, International & Security Affairs, the Australia Institute // @emmashortis

Show notes:

Groundwork Collaborative

The US and Israel attack Iran, foment chaos, After America, the Australia Institute (February 2026)

This interview is also available on podcast platforms and Rumble.

While the official White House X account posts video montages featuring video games and Hollywood movies spliced with real footage of their attacks on Iran, the situation on the ground could not be more different than an American propaganda blockbuster.

To pierce the fog of war and offer a concrete analysis of what is taking place across the Middle East, author and former British diplomat Alastair Crooke of the Substack Conflicts Forum joins host Chris Hedges on this episode of The Chris Hedges Report.

In 1989, terrorist rabbi Meir Kahane made a promise.

“A horrible world war is coming,” Kahane told journalist Robert I. Friedman. “Tens of millions will die. It will be the Apocalypse. God will punish us for forsaking him. But we must have faith. The Messiah will come. There will be a resurrection of the dead: all the things that Jews believed in before they got so damn sophisticated. The amount of suffering we endure will depend upon what we do between now and the end.”

Kahane did not live to see his vision realized. In 1990, the year Friedman published The False Prophet: Rabbi Meir Kahane, From FBI Informant to Knesset Member, the 58-year-old Kahane was shot to death while giving a speech imploring American Jews to move to Israel. The alleged assailant, Egyptian-American El Sayyid Nosair, was acquitted by a jury but sentenced by the judge. In death as in life, the circumstances surrounding Kahane are murky and violent.

Friedman had an eye for figures of the 20^th century who would define the 21^st. Ten years after The False Prophet, he published Red Mafiya: his investigation of a transnational crime syndicate whose members came from the USSR and spent the 1990s infiltrating governments and corporations worldwide. The head of that syndicate, Semyon Mogilevich, put a contract on Friedman’s life.

The American university is broken. The people running the universities know it, which is why they have redoubled their efforts to make sure you can’t do anything about it.

The story has been told so many times in conservative circles that retelling it risks being a bore: William F. Buckley warned us in 1951 about the free fall that had already begun in higher education. Allan Bloom sounded the alarm in 1987. Ross Douthat offered his critique in 2005. A generation of conservatives has poured time, treasure, and talent into reforming higher ed. We’ve funded centers, endowed chairs, launched institutes, filed lawsuits, and written enough op-eds to fill the Library of Alexandria. Yet still—still—the average graduate of an American university is more likely to be able to explain the nuances of “systemic oppression” than to tell you who wrote The Federalist Papers.

That should be a sign that the old approach, whatever its merits, was fundamentally wrong—not because the diagnosis was wrong, but because the strategy was. As Aristotle says, we should deliberate about means, not ends. Conservatives have been trying to reform the university from within a system that is designed, at every level, to resist exactly the kind of reformation we seek. It is time to stop playing a rigged game and build our own system.

The Unassailable Fortress

Foreword: This in an audiorecording of a presentation, which was delivered on 3/5/26 at the 2026 Conference on College Composition and Communication.

The Wrap with Dr Emma Shortis

The President of Peace has started another war.

It began with the bombing of a school in southern Iran. According to Iranian authorities, the death toll from that strike now sits at 168. Many of the victims were children.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and US President Donald Trump have normalised the sight of little coffins.

Emerging evidence now suggests the school was struck more than once – perhaps three times. A “double-tap” strike is when a first strike is followed up by a second in order to target those still sheltering, those running away, and first responders. Double-tap strikes are prohibited by the laws of war.

Wilhelm Röpke once observed, in a sentence that ought to unsettle every free market romanticist in our time, that the market economy “presupposes and requires a moral and social framework which it cannot itself create.” This line is often quoted as a caveat to free enterprise, but it is more properly read as its foundation. Markets are not self-sustaining organisms, nor do they generate the conditions that make them legitimate. They depend upon a prior architecture of norms, institutions, and habits that provide coherence and legitimacy.

In our republic, one of the most concrete expressions of that framework is homeownership.

Röpke’s defense of markets was inseparable from his insistence on the diffusion of property. He did not associate capitalism with mass consumption or asset appreciation. He equated it with rooted ownership, with households that possess something tangible, something inherited and stewarded. Without that diffusion, he feared the slow advance of what he called “proletarianization”: the condition of citizens who participate in markets, yet own nothing substantial.

“The proletarian,” Röpke wrote in The Social Crisis of Our Time, “is the man who has no property…who is without roots.” His concern was the gradual transformation of citizens into rootless wage earners whose livelihoods depend upon systems too vast to influence and too distant to anchor them.

On this episode of Dollars & Sense, Greg and Skye discuss the economic impact of the illegal US-Israel war on Iran, the latest Australian GDP data, and why the Reserve Bank seems to want more Australians to be unemployed.

This discussion was recorded on Thursday 5 March 2026.

What we owe the water: It’s time for a fossil fuel treaty by Kumi Naidoo, is available now for just $19.95. Use the code ‘PODVP’ at checkout to get free shipping.

You can also subscribe to the Vantage Point series to get four essays a year on some of the most pressing issues facing Australia and the world.

Host: Greg Jericho, Chief Economist, the Australia Institute // @grogsgamut

Host: Skye Predavec, Researcher, the Australia Institute // @skyelark

Show notes:

Foreword: This presentation was delivered on 3/5/26 at the 2026 Conference on College Composition and Communication.

Content Warning: This article discusses kink and sex frankly, but in an entirely non-explicit way.