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Sergio Correia, Stephan Luck, and Emil Verner

Do banks fail because of runs or because they become insolvent? Answering this question is central to understanding financial crises and designing effective financial stability policies. Long-run historical evidence reveals that the root cause of bank failures is usually insolvency. The importance of bank runs is somewhat overstated. Runs matter, but in most cases they trigger or accelerate failure at already weak banks, rather than cause otherwise sound banks to fail.

Hungary’s elections earlier this week marked a seismic shift after 16 years of Viktor Orbán’s dominance, as Peter Magyar’s opposition Tisza party won with over half the vote and a supermajority in the legislature.

The attention focused on this small Central European country may seem disproportionate—but Orbán attracted not only the active support of the Trump Administration, with Vice President Vance flying out to rally for him in person, but also equally strenuous opposition from the American Left and its allies in Brussels. In the wake of Orbán’s defeat, left-wing luminaries Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, and Alex Soros (son of Hungarian native and Orbán arch-nemesis George and inheritor of his left-wing activist empire) were among those sending out celebratory tweets.

“We didn’t go because we expected Viktor Orban to cruise to an election victory,” Vance later told Fox News. “We went because it was the right thing to do to stand behind a person who had stood by us for a very long time.”

I have some personal familiarity with Hungary, having made two multi-week visits as a visiting fellow at the Danube Institute, a conservative think tank that was broadly aligned with (though occasionally critical of) Orbán’s government. 

On this episode of Dollars & Sense, Greg and Elinor discuss the International Monetary Fund (IMF)’s latest World Economic Outlook report, its forecast for Australia, Angus Taylor’s Trumpy immigration policy announcement, and why immigration isn’t causing the housing crisis.

This discussion was recorded on Thursday 16 April 2026.

Visit The Point for research, analysis, explainers and factchecks from experts at the Australia Institute and beyond.

Host: Greg Jericho, Chief Economist, the Australia Institute // @grogsgamut

Host: Elinor Johnston-Leek, Senior Content Producer, the Australia Institute // @elinorjohnstonleek

Show notes:

The IMF refuses to name the cause of this global chaos. It starts with ‘Donald’ and ends in ‘Trump’ by Greg Jericho, Guardian Australia (April 2026)

World Economic Outlook: Global Economy in the Shadow of War, International Monetary Fund (April 2026)

The American Mind’s ‘Editorial Roundtable’ podcast is a weekly conversation with Ryan Williams, Spencer Klavan, and Mike Sabo devoted to uncovering the ideas and principles that drive American political life. Stream here or download from your favorite podcast host.

Chimping Out | The Roundtable Ep. 313

Sophia Cho and John C. Williams

Only one year after they won a minority in the 2025 election, Prime Minister Mark Carney and the Liberals have achieved a majority government. This majority was delivered (thus far, as of time of writing) by five Members of Parliament who “crossed the floor” since the 2025 election, leaving the party they were elected with to join the governing Liberals.

These events have produced an intense debate over the legitimacy of floor-crossing, which is ultimately rooted in a fundamental disagreement over what an elected representative’s job should be in a democratic system. Two competing theories of representation, the “trustee” and “delegate” models, can be seen in the debate over floor-crossing, in Canadians’ common-sense political discourse, and in different elements of our Parliamentary system. However, both of these models are failing in Canada’s actually existing political practice. Instead, a “party-democracy” model of representation holds the promise of leveraging existing institutions to make Canada’s democracy more deliberative and participatory.

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The market has gone from panic to fresh highs in a hurry, and the big question now is whether this snapback rally still has room to run. In this week’s update, I break down the flow acceleration behind the move, why tariff refunds could add another liquidity tailwind in the months ahead, and why I still think end-of-cycle risk is something to watch closely — just not something the market has to fear yet.

Spencer Klavan has invited us to contemplate the American age, to think again in civilizational, epochal terms, and to search out the prerequisites for its continuation.

The chaos (good and ill) of the past decade has made it difficult to look beyond the immediate. But Klavan is right: Trumpism, whether embattled or dead, is more a harbinger of a possible future than its fulfillment. To carry on, “Americans will need to recover a sense of their country as an era-defining project, forward-looking but steeped in ancient traditions of faith and law—not just a Western nation, but the Western nation par excellence. Much depends on whether we can learn to see ourselves that way again.” This is a spiritual inquiry as much as an intellectual one.

The singular trait most essential to American renewal—perhaps the most predominant, central belief during the founding period—is what I have called “Protestant Providentialism.” Here we find the American soul that gives shape to the body and governance to the mind, and promise to America’s future.

A Providential Nation

On this episode of Follow the Money, Dr Emma Shortis and Ebony Bennett discuss Trump’s genocidal threats against Iran, his efforts to subvert US democracy, his administration’s growing isolation from long-time allies, and why it’s time for the Australian government to reassess its relationship with the United States.

This episode was recorded on Monday 13 April.

Guest: Emma Shortis, Director, International & Security Affairs, the Australia Institute // @emmashortis

Host: Ebony Bennett, Deputy Director, the Australia Institute // @ebonybennett

Show notes:

After America: Australia and the new world order by Emma Shortis, Australia Institute Press (May 2025)

Vance joyless as US-Iran negotiations fall apart, After America, the Australia Institute (April 2026)

Shorter America This Week: Ceasefire?; Madman theory; Group hugs in space by Emma Shortis, The Point (April 2026)

This interview is also available on podcast platforms and Rumble.

Medea Benjamin, a co-founder of the antiwar organization CODEPINK, speaks with Chris Hedges about her recent visit to Cuba as part of one of the many humanitarian delegations that have visited the island in response to the severe economic blockade imposed by the Trump administration. Benjamin describes the current situation as “dire”, the worst she has experienced in her 50 years of solidarity work with Cuba, referring to the escalation of the blockade as a “medieval siege.”

Ali Hashim, Gizem Kosar, and Wilbert van der Klaauw

This is a republication of an article from February 2024.

Announcement: My dad died two weeks ago. He was diagnosed with terminal cancer in 2023. Every article in this newsletter was written while my dad had cancer, including this one, which is full of good memories of my dad. I’m republishing it in remembrance of him.

I am reeling from his death. But I am slowly getting back to work. The paperback edition of my book, The Last American Road Trip, came out the week he died. I am doing a limited, local tour. Two events are this week. The first is April 15 in St Louis at the University City Public Library, 7-8:30 PM. The second is April 18 at 10:45 AM at the Unbound Book Festival in Columbia, MO. Read a newly published interview about my book here.

A recent ruling by a German court at first glance could be seen as a victory for freedom of speech. But on closer inspection, it shows why so-called visibility filtering—artificially restricting the reach of online content rather than removing it outright—is the future, and indeed increasingly the present, of online censorship.

As reported by the German alternative media Nius in February, a court in Wiesbaden acquitted defendant Sebastian W. of the charge of having “insulted” Germany’s then-Economics Minister Robert Habeck. (“Insult” is a crime in German law.) In a July 2024 tweet, Sebastian W. referred to the German minister as a “traitor.” Under Section 188 of the German Criminal Code, which is commonly known in Germany as the lèse-majesté law, the penalties for insulting a public official are greater than those for insulting an ordinary citizen.

Over a year ago President Trump began dismantling the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID). While bemoaned by many in the foreign policy community as a mistake, in reality the agency had long ago strayed from its initial purpose, namely, helping developing nations establish prosperous and growing free market economies. Indeed, its initial purpose as envisioned by President Kennedy was to bring the economic promise of America to the poorest nations in the world. Just as with our opening to China in 1972, we were confident that democracy would follow.

Yet the tragedy of USAID was its failure to bring a single new market-based economy to life. After several decades it could produce no examples of even having brokered an alliance between a Third World country and the United States. USAID’s annual core operating budget of $22 billion and its ineffective record rightly proved too much for the Trump Administration’s DOGE review.

“Does it really make sense to perpetuate a system in which disastrous financial risks are built into the profit-driven provision of basic financial products like pensions and mortgages?… Why do the smoke detectors fail again and again? And why is the house not more fire proof? It is time to ask who benefits and who pays the cost for continuing with this dangerously inflammable system.” – Adam Tooze

In a world of global political and economic instability, my studies at the University of Sydney led me to the Discipline of Political Economy. I have been particularly animated by taking one course, or unit of study, which is ECOP1003: Production, Trade and Finance. This is precisely the type of course that gives students a deeper understanding of the problems we are facing today. The unit introduces a wide range of authors, theories and debates spanning trade, development, inequality, globalisation and international financial systems. It is both intellectually stimulating and deeply relevant to the challenges shaping our world.