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This is a premium piece of Notes on the Crises. Subscribe here to read the full piece- and series. Find part one here and part two here.

Dear readers. I was interrupted by sickness last winter from finishing this series. However, it's only become more relevant in the intervening months so I thought it was important to finish and publish the “payoff” final piece in the series.

Modern democratic politics began with three great revolutions, with the English, American, and French Revolution each marked, though in very different ways, by a memorable public Declaration justifying and explaining the political changes. Americans’ impending commemoration of the 250th anniversary of our Revolution—and our Declaration of Independence—invites at least a brief comparison with these other revolutions’ declarations, followed by a more sustained interpretation of our own illuminated by its differences with them.

The English Bill of Rights

On this episode of Dollars & Sense, Matt Grudnoff joins Elinor to talk about the federal government’s “piss poor” online gambling reforms and the push to pay super to under 18s.

This discussion was recorded on Thursday 9 July 2026.

If this episode raised issues for you, you can call the National Gambling Helpline on 1800 858 858 for free, professional and confidential support 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. Or visit Gambling Help Online at www.gamblinghelponline.org.au.

If you or anyone you know needs help, you can contact Lifeline on 13 11 14 or online at www.lifeline.org.au.

Host: Matt Grudnoff, Senior Economist, the Australia Institute // @mattgrudnoff

Host: Elinor Johnston-Leek, Senior Content Producer, the Australia Institute // @elinorjohnstonleek

Of all the stupidity Australians have accepted as “normal”, our relationship with house prices may be among the most ridiculous.

This nation is in the grips of a media panic over a small blip in house prices. This blip apparently deserves wall-to-wall coverage and dire warnings of impending doom.

Maybe – shock – the current 0.4 per cent decrease in national house prices (not a typo, it is less than 1 per cent) COULD reach 8 per cent. MAYBE 10 PER CENT. Get the army ready – society itself may be about to collapse.

It is very rare that we see these numbers put into context.
A fall usually follows a rapid rise in prices and Australia has seen more of a rapid rise than most.

Let’s go from 2000, a nice round number, which also happens to be when John Howard and Peter Costello’s ideological war against the capital gains tax kicked in. Since then, house prices have increased fivefold.

The average home has increased in value by about $70,000 a year over the past five years. Again, that is not a typo. That’s about $350,000 in five years.

The people who have benefited from this increase did nothing but have the luck and means to own a house. If their home was to decrease by even 10 per cent, they are still doing OK – their homes will go back to what they were worth at the end of 2024. Back when media was wringing its hands over what could be done about the unaffordable housing market.

With all of the justifiable disappointment in the Supreme Court’s term-concluding decisions on birthright citizenship and mail-in ballots, one could be forgiven for overlooking the significance of the blow it dealt to the administrative state. While there are some important qualifications which I will go on to explain, the Court in Trump v. Slaughter strongly embraced the American Founders’ principle of unity in the executive branch. It repudiated the idea that parts of the federal bureaucracy should be free to wield executive power independent of the president and the voters who elect him.

The Court’s ruling in Slaughter and in a series of related cases leading up to it marks a restoration of democracy, not an assault on it. After all, how can it be an assault on “our democracy” to take power from those who are unaccountable to voters and give it, instead, to the only official for whom the entire nation votes?

This interview is also available on podcast platforms and Rumble.

Since October 2023, people around the world have watched as the Zionist State flouts international laws and norms – the genocide of Palestinians, murdering medical workers and journalists, detaining and torturing civilians, including children, and blockading efforts to bring aid into Gaza, to name a few. International bodies, such as the United Nations and the International Criminal Court, have demonstrated that they are completely incapable of enforcing laws or even following through on court mandates. Meanwhile, Palestinians in Gaza, the West Bank and East Jerusalem are suffering immensely as they are terrorized daily and forced to flee into shrinking spaces without the means to survive.

On this episode of Follow the Money, Rod Campbell and Matt Grudnoff join Ebony Bennett to discuss the reasons why the GST hasn’t grown as promised, how exemptions for private schools and private insurance exacerbate inequality, and how governments can ensure they’re providing the high-quality services Australians deserve.

This episode was recorded on Tuesday 7 July.

Check out the new Australia Institute podcast series, What’s the Point? with Richard Denniss. It’s available now on YouTube, Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your favourite shows.

Guest: Rod Campbell, Research Director, the Australia Institute // @rodcampbell

Guest: Matt Grudnoff, Senior Economist, the Australia Institute // @mattgrudnoff

Host: Ebony Bennett, Deputy Director, the Australia Institute // @ebonybennett

France is in freefall. Industry, agriculture, public finances, trade, educational and cultural standards, health, scientific research—nothing is mastered any more, and everything is going downhill at high speed. The luxury-goods, defense, and aeronautics industries, along with wine and cereal crops, are the last islands of French excellence to survive in an ocean of mediocrity. The French people feel that they can no longer control their own destiny.

I often say that immigration is not the cause of anything, but it makes everything worse. It was collège unique and the methods of the pedagogists that destroyed the school. But the massive immigration of people from Arab-Muslim countries, most of whose parents have very little social capital and a dull hostility to French culture, has considerably accelerated the collapse of standards and violence. It was the 35-hour working week and bureaucracy that disrupted the hospital system. But the unlimited, free admission of patients from all over Africa overwhelmed and sank a French hospital system that 25 years ago was still recognized as the best in the world.

La economía va bien, pero el país va mal – The economy is doing well, but the country is doing badly

In 1987, when Fabio Echeverry Correa, then president of Colombia’s largest business association, used these words, he was describing a country where macroeconomic stability coexisted with the expansion of drug trafficking, a corrupt and clientelist political system, and an ongoing armed conflict. Nearly four decades later, this phrase still captures one of the most enduring paradoxes of Colombian development.

During the 2000s, Colombia became one of Latin America’s economic success stories. Growth accelerated, foreign direct investment multiplied, and international financial institutions praised the country’s macroeconomic stability. Colombia was even included among the CIVETS[i], a group of emerging economies expected to become the next engines of global growth. International investors increasingly viewed the country as a safe and promising destination for capital.

Labor finished the last parliamentary week on a high. There is a feeling within caucus that the party has a plan for dealing with One Nation, helped along by the fact the Coalition is completely without one.

The Liberals’ switch to Angus Taylor has put a spring in the steps of Anthony Albanese and his office.

Criticising Sussan Ley had to be done in very specific terms, given the dangers of being perceived to be speaking down to, or acting aggressively to, a woman. But Taylor, who appears to have stepped out of Liberal Party central casting, is fair game.

Plus, no one is going to accuse him of being quick on his feet, despite his time in the political bullpit. For a political animal like Albanese, Taylor’s leadership has been a gift.

The “three right-wing political parties” is a line that has tested well for Labor and hence has been deployed at every opportunity.

The only sign the Coalition had found a point of difference came with a heavy assist from independent senator David Pocock and the Greens, who co-sponsored legislation with the Coalition to keep humans at the forefront of aged care funding decisions. This followed reporting from Guardian Australia’s Melissa Davey earlier this year that revealed the cruelty of algorithmic decisions, which may be ticked off by humans but have largely removed their discretion.

We expected that. But what can we expect next? On this episode of After America, Dr Emma Shortis and Angus Blackman discuss the November midterm elections and what they might bring. After Emma’s trip to Brussels and Berlin, they also reflect the contrasts between European and Australian views of the United States.

This episode was recorded live on Monday 6 July.

Guest: Emma Shortis, Director, International & Security Affairs, the Australia Institute // @emmashortis

Host: Angus Blackman, Executive Producer, the Australia Institute // @AngusRB

Show notes:

This World Cup shows who holds the cards in Trump’s economy, After America, the Australia Institute (June 2026)

From Europe’s strategic settings to China’s overcapacities – a view through an antipodean lens, Friedrich Ebert Stiftung (June 2026)

The 2026 midterm elections, Brookings

The gains made in classical education in recent years are truly encouraging. Students are once again learning great names, great stories, and encountering primary texts that invite them to participate rather than be passive observers. But while the classical academic program is teaching our children the names of virtues long out of fashion, we should ask whether we have created the conditions in which those virtues can truly take root and flourish.

In the Cyropaedia, Xenophon’s account of Cyrus’s formation and adventures before he ascended to Persia’s throne, Xenophon describes the paideia, or the process of formation whereby young men become statesmen. Xenophon’s Cyrus grew up with rigorous discipline: combat, cold exposure, fasting, and the austere corrections of men hardened by war. His education was a series of experiences fashioning him for military service, accustoming him to privation, and schooling him in the unapologetic art of justice.

On the second episode of What’s the Point?, Richard Denniss discusses the government’s long-overdue changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax and the ongoing media hysteria around Australia’s housing market.

This episode was recorded on Friday 3 July.

Host: Richard Denniss, co-Chief Executive Officer, the Australia Institute // @richarddenniss

Host: Anna Chang, Managing Editor, The Point // @annachang

Show notes:

The Wrap: After a decades-long fight, housing tax reform becomes reality by Matt Grudnoff, The Point (July 2026)

Theme music: Blue Dot Sessions

The biggest and best tax reforms in 25 years just passed the Parliament.

In fact, you would have to go back way before the noughties to find tax reforms that will make Australia fairer than Labor’s reforms passed this week with the support of the Greens and David Pocock in the Senate.

Most tax reforms passed in the last 25 years have been either tweaks, regressive (penalising poorer people or helping the rich), or have been repealed. More on that later.

Labor’s tax reforms are progressive, and the most talked about reforms are the ones that will affect housing. Finance journalist Alan Kohler neatly summarised Australia’s housing crisis this way: “It’s no longer possible for somebody who doesn’t have reasonably wealthy parents to buy a house. It’s as simple as that. And it’s a fundamental change to Australian society.”

That’s the problem Labor is targeting with these reforms.