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Markets have had a rough ride lately. Just last Wednesday, we hit fresh all-time highs, only to see a sharp selloff in the days since. As of writing this, the S&P 500 has dropped around 4.5% in just five trading days. So, what’s going on? What’s driving this pullback?

If you follow financial media, you’ll hear a common explanation: the bond market. Specifically, falling bond yields have been blamed for the market's weakness. But does that explanation really hold up? Let’s break it down and take a closer look at the broader macroeconomic forces at play.

The Bond Market’s Message—Should We Be Concerned?

A traditional macroeconomic interpretation of falling bond yields suggests that investors are flocking to safety due to concerns about future economic growth. If the market truly feared a slowdown, we’d expect capital to shift into bonds, pushing prices up and yields down. This logic, at least in theory, makes sense.

A year has passed since Kartik Athreya became director of research at the New York Fed. To get some perspective on his experience thus far, we caught up with Kartik and asked about his views on economics, the role of Research at the Bank, and his take on a few of the hot topics of the day.

The Coalition’s recent statements committing to “prioritise supply to the domestic market” is welcome recognition that gas exports are hurting Australians.

“The government can achieve this tomorrow by capping exports. It is not complicated,” said Richard Denniss, Executive Director at The Australia Institute.

“We have provided certainty of supply and price to the Chinese market for decades, while ripping off customers at home.”

Australia is one of the largest exporters of gas in the world. There is no shortage of gas in Australia, as highlighted in the Coalition’s recent statements.

Multinational gas export corporations already export 80 per cent of Australia’s gas and control almost all of Australia’s gas reserves.

By Krisstina Rao

If you’re interested in engaging with topics like these, join our Community of Practice on DPI Measurement. Read about it here.

Travers McLeod (Brotherhood of St Laurence), Kasy Chambers (Anglicare Australia), Elly Desmarchelier (Disability Rights Advocate) and Jenny Davidson (Council of Single Mothers and their Children) discuss the ways Australia’s tax and transfer system is impacting those most vulnerable in our community.

Recorded on the 20th of February as part of Per Capita’s Community Tax Summit, at Solidarity Hall at Victorian Trades Hall, Melbourne. The Community Tax Summit bought together Australian NFPs, Think Tanks, Advocacy Groups and more to kick off a “big conversation” about Australia’s tax and transfer system. There our panels of experts and those with lived experience demonstrated that there is an genuine appetite for tax and transfer reform, which is both needed and wanted in the next term of Parliament.

The post Welfare and Social Assistance appeared first on Per Capita.

ACOSS’s Peter Davidson, Professor Helen Hodgson, Think Forward’s Thomas Walker, and Per Capita’s Emma Dawson discuss just how we can broaden the tax base, creating a more fair, equitable, and sustainable tax and transfer system for all Australians. Recorded on the 20th of February as part of Per Capita’s Community Tax Summit, at Solidarity Hall at Victorian Trades Hall, Melbourne.

The Community Tax Summit bought together Australian NFPs, Think Tanks, Advocacy Groups and more to kick off a “big conversation” about Australia’s tax and transfer system. There our panels of experts and those with lived experience demonstrated that there is an genuine appetite for tax and transfer reform, which is both needed and wanted in the next term of Parliament.

The post Broadening the Tax Base: What’s possible, sustainable and fair? appeared first on Per Capita.

Lived Experience Panel, moderated by Nicole Bieske from Brotherhood of St Laurence. Nathan Carolus shares his experience of Jobseeker and employment service provision. Juanita McLaren shares her experience as a researcher and a single mum on income support and child support. Peter Sutton shares his experience with JobSeeker, the Disability Support Pension and Rent Assistance.

This powerful panel will change your views on welfare, showing the real reasons people find themselves needing assistance and the inadequacy of the current system.

Recorded on the 20th of February as part of Per Capita’s Community Tax Summit, at Solidarity Hall at Victorian Trades Hall, Melbourne. The Community Tax Summit bought together Australian NFPs, Think Tanks, Advocacy Groups and more to kick off a “big conversation” about Australia’s tax and transfer system. There our panels of experts and those with lived experience demonstrated that there is an genuine appetite for tax and transfer reform, which is both needed and wanted in the next term of Parliament.

The post Lived Experience Panel One: Welfare services appeared first on Per Capita.

On Monday February 24, the newly elected City Council’s Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure heard a presentation on the state of the city’s transportation system (and its finances) and then a litany of public testimony on the problems on city streets.

What City Observatory Did This Week

Profligacy for freeways, penury for city streets:  Why Portland’s transportation system is broken.  

Ozge Akinci, Martin Almuzara, Silvia Miranda-Agrippino, Ramya Nallamotu, Argia Sbordone, Greg Simitian, and William Zeng

While the Trump Administration is considering taking Greenland and Canada under its wing, there’s another foreign country America should watch over, in the way that a parent cares for a child: California.

If the Golden State were a nation, it would have the fifth-highest GDP globally: $3.8 trillion (more than India, and more than New York and Florida combined). It’s the most populous state, officially home to 39 million residents—eight million more than Texas. It has the most members of the House (52) and the most Electoral College votes (54).

California’s farms supply more than half of America’s fruits and vegetables, half our dairy, and every almond. The Central Valley, which spans 450 miles from Redding in the north to Bakersfield in the south, has 1% of U.S. farmland but produces 25% of Americans’ food.

California’s market power means that its laws affect 49 other states. In 2016, California adopted a “History Social Science Framework” for K-12 education to “feature the contributions of diverse peoples of all sorts to the story of California and the United States.” Publishers like McGraw Hill updated their textbooks nationwide to avoid printing a separate California edition. “LGBT” appears 21 times in the framework.

[Note: As readership of Heidi Says has grown, it has been brought to my attention that some background on me might be useful. I’ve expanded the “About” page accordingly.]

The scale and pace of Republican Fascist activities escalates daily. Bizarre, sadistic, dangerous measures spew from Trump, his overlord Musk, and the puppets in his Cabinet. It makes it difficult to focus. Yet we cannot effectively oppose this utterly rogue federal executive branch if we succumb to disorientation. My advice, based on what works for me: don’t chase every new bit of breaking news. Find the issue or area that most concerns or interests you and follow that closely. Find a couple of commentators or publications you trust and read them regularly.

Do not forget that we are in a long, hard slog. It will take decades to reverse this country’s slide into corrupt fascism. It can only be done through the accretion of small efforts, none of which may seem efficacious in the moment. Do what you can when you can. Go to a meeting of a local progressive organization. Write a letter to the editor. Make phone calls to your members of Congress. Participate in economic boycotts of companies selling out to Trump. Speak truth in public. There are millions of Americans who want to change the country for the better. No one of us is going to make it happen and even all of us trying will not make it happen quickly.

Ozge Akinci, Martin Almuzara, Silvia Miranda-Agrippino, Ramya Nallamotu, Argia Sbordone, Greg Simitian, and William Zeng

My grandmother had a “joke” (really more of a parable) about a guy who sees a pie cooling in the window, and steals it. Unfortunately, he leaves a perfect handprint on the sill, so he sneaks into the house in order to wash off his handprint. But then it’s obvious that the sill has been washed, since it’s so much cleaner than the wall. So he washes that wall.

Bennelong MP Jerome Laxale has vowed to fight for renters at an Everybody’s Home town hall designed to spotlight Australia’s deepening housing crisis ahead of the federal election. 

On Tuesday, Everybody’s Home kicked off its series of online forums with incumbent MPs from key electorates, beginning with Mr Laxale.  

Mr Laxale said: “There has been a huge shift in housing perception … It’s because of groups like [Everybody’s Home], and advocates … who are fighting for renters, like I do.

“It’s not always politicians who need to change their minds, the community also needs to change their mind. Politicians have a role to play but as important a role is to get a community-led campaign to advocate for more change, that comes down to persistence and passion.”

Mr Laxale also warned against proposals for first homebuyers to pay for a deposit through their super.

“People under the age of 40 don’t have $50,000 in their super to raid. It will mean the country and the individual will be worse off by withdrawing from their super,” Mr Laxale said.

“Super is for retirement, it’s not a piggy-bank on the side…we know from world experience across the ditch that it doesn’t help with housing affordability and will leave individuals worse off in the long run.”

Mr Laxale said Labor’s main housing priority is to build more homes.

“It’s been a rocky road to get housing policies through parliament … but our focus is the delivery of homes and we will do what we can,” he said.

Recorded on the 20th of February as part of Per Capita’s Community Tax Summit, Dr Ken Henry AC gave the opening keynote address in the Solidarity Hall at Victorian Trades Hall, Melbourne.

Currently, Chair of the Nature Finance Council, the Australian Climate and Biodiversity Foundation and Wildlife Recovery Australia, and a non-executive director of Accounting for Nature Ltd and the Digital Finance CRC, Dr Henry served as the Secretary to the Treasury from 2001 to 2011. He chaired the Howard Government’s tax review taskforce in 1997-98, the Rudd Government’s tax review published in 2010, and the Gillard Government’s White Paper on Australia in the Asian Century (2011 and 2012).

The Community Tax Summit bought together Australian NFPs, Think Tanks, Advocacy Groups and more to kick off a “big conversation” about Australia’s tax and transfer system.

There our panels of experts and those with lived experience demonstrated that there is an genuine appetite for tax and transfer reform, which is both needed and wanted in the next term of Parliament.

The post Ken Henry: Keynote Address appeared first on Per Capita.