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On May 19, 2023, the graduation speaker at New College of Florida, Dr. Scott Atlas, walked up to the podium to begin his remarks. The sun was just beginning to set over Sarasota Bay, off which the campus is located, and guests were seated near the water under a large white tent. Behind Dr. Atlas on an elevated stage, faculty and administration wore their academic regalia. The event looked like many college commencements taking place around the nation that spring. However, when Dr. Atlas had accepted the invitation to speak from me, the recently appointed interim president, we had both known it would be anything but typical.

Shortly after Dr. Atlas began his remarks, yells from the audience of “Murderer!” and “Go f*** yourself!” would result in police entering the crowd to stand quietly, scanning the rows. A chorus of boos and jeers continued throughout Dr. Atlas’s 16-minute speech. He stoically read from his script, stopping rarely, except once toward the end, when many of the several hundred in the audience stood up, turned their backs on him, and chanted, “Wrap it up!” for more than a minute, forcing him to pause as the noise became overwhelming.

The latest entry in an unofficial Assigned Media series: What sport have trans women been arbitrarily banned from this week? This time, it’s golf! That most athletic of sports, as we all know, in which trans women must clearly have a profound and unfair advantage!

Marco Cipriani, Thomas Eisenbach, and Anna Kovner

Well, it's been one heck of a year. ::shaking head:: Although I love getting those end-of-year postcards from folks, I've never managed to make them. Instead of recounting my familial adventures and emotional trials and tribulations, I thought I could at least step back and reflect on some professional endeavors over the last year, many of which I did a lousy job of sharing when they happened. 

1. I wrote three papers this year that I'm quite proud of. 

"Statistical Imaginaries, State Legitimacy: Grappling with the Arrangements Underpinning Quantification in the US Census" is an analysis of four technical changes that the Census Bureau made / attempted to make in the last few decades: imputation, adjustment, swapping, differential privacy. Jayshree Sarathy and I examine the controversies around them with an eye towards why their complexity and visibility mattered.  This is an extension of our earlier work on differential perspectives. 

The Washington Post goes the way many other media organizations have gone, following an increasingly familiar playbook to attempt to restrict trans healthcare.

Sophia Cho, Marco Del Negro, Ibrahima Diagne, Pranay Gundam, Donggyu Lee, and Brian Pacula

My advice to President Trump on how to deal with the mess in Ukraine is simple: you should pull the plug on the Biden Administration’s flailing European peanut gallery. Your friends and allies in Europe want to shoulder the burden of their own defense, but they don’t want to pour money down the drain and risk World War III in Ukraine. Get an immediate ceasefire in Ukraine, a war which no sane European wants to fight, and let the sovereigntist parties of the New Right mop up the globalist Left. They believe in their countries and will fight to protect them, unlike the Brussels liberals cowering behind the skirts of Mother America.

Ending the war won’t happen without an agreement to keep Ukraine neutral and out of NATO. The Deep State will try to convince you that NATO can’t afford to back down on eventual Ukraine membership, and that Russia is bleeding out and ready to fold. But the opposite is true: Europe’s willingness to defend itself depends on a revival of nationalism and the ascent of the sovereigntist parties on the Right. Freeze the fighting and deliver a political victory to European patriots whose watchword is “Make Europe Great Again.”

Highway department’s are selling multi-billion dollar highway widening projects based on flawed traffic projections.

The projections prepared for the predecessor of the proposed $7.5 billion Interstate Bridge Replacement project predicted traffic would grow 1.3 percent per year after 2005.  In reality, traffic across the I-5 bridges has increased by only about 0.1 percent per year since then (and at its pre-Covid peak, had increased only 0.3 percent per year).

Actual I-5 traffic levels are more than 30,000 vehicles per day below the levels forecast for 2024 in the Columbia River Crossing EIS.  Rather than increasing by 30,000 vehicles, I-5 weekday traffic has only increased by 3,000 vehicles in 18 years.

Inaccurate and biased traffic models are a misleading and even fraudulent basis for multi-billion dollar spending decisions.

Claims that we need widen I-5 between Portland and Vancouver are based on projections from traffic models. The best evidence of how well a traffic model works is how accurate its predictions have been.  By that standard, we already know that the traffic models developed for the Interstate Bridge Project are simply wrong and untrustworthy.

What City Observatory Did This Week