The Australia Institute Feed Items

On this episode of After America, Judge Navi Pillay, former UN High Commissioner for Human Rights and 2025 Sydney Peace Prize Laureate, joins Dr Emma Shortis to discuss accountability in international law and the prerequisites for genuine peace.

This discussion was recorded on Monday 13 October 2025.

Details of Judge Navi Pillay’s Australian events are available on the Sydney Peace Foundation website.

Dead Centre: How political pragmatism is killing us by Richard Denniss is available now via Australia Institute Press.

Guest: Navi Pillay, Chair of the United Nations Human Rights Council Independent International Commission of Inquiry on the Occupied Palestinian Territory

Host: Emma Shortis, Director, International & Security Affairs, the Australia Institute // @emmashortis

Show notes:

Israel has committed genocide in the Gaza Strip, UN Commission finds, Office of the High Commissioner, United Nations Human Rights (September 2025)

Australia Institute analysis also shows:

• Gas exports worth $170 billion paid no royalties and no PRRT over the last 4 years.
• Australians pay 4 times more in HECs /Help repayments than the gas industry pays in PRRT.
• Australian nurses pay more tax than the gas industry.
• Many gas exporters continue to pay no tax and PRRT payments are at a 3 year low.
• The Australian government gives gas exporters more than half the gas they export royalty free.

“A 25% gas export tax would go a long way towards solving the nation’s housing crisis and the self-inflicted ‘gas crisis’ in one fell swoop,” said Rod Campbell, Research Director at The Australia Institute.

“It is extraordinary that Australia raises so little money from gas exports, despite being one of the world’s largest producers.

“This is an opportunity for the Albanese government to implement progressive patriotism and put the interests of Australian households and businesses ahead of gas industry greed.

On this episode of Dollars & Sense, Greg and Elinor discuss the latest World Economic Outlook from the International Monetary Fund, the latest trade spat between the United States and China, why fewer Australians are travelling to America, and the Australian Government’s backdown over superannuation.

Dead Centre: How political pragmatism is killing us by Richard Denniss is available now via the Australia Institute website.

This discussion was recorded on Wednesday 15 October 2025.

Host: Greg Jericho, Chief Economist, the Australia Institute // @grogsgamut

Host: Elinor Johnston-Leek, Senior Content Producer, the Australia Institute // @elinorjohnstonleek

Show notes:

The IMF reckons the global economy remains ‘in flux’, but the Trump effect is real – and Australians aren’t fooled by Greg Jericho, Guardian Australia (October 2025)

When coal prices hit a record $280 per tonne in 2023, Adani sold Queensland coal to Indian buyers for $100 per tonne, drastically reducing royalty payments to Queenslanders.

The current LNP government abandoned court action to recoup the payments in August this year, a case started by the former Labor government.

“Adani was almost giving coal away at mates rates right at the time when Queenslanders were struggling most with record energy prices in 2023,” said Rod Campbell, Research Director at The Australia Institute.

“Just as the Federal government gives away Australia’s gas resources for free, the Queensland government is now effectively giving away $400 million worth of free coal.

“That $400 million could have tripled the state’s $100 Back to School Boost payment for primary school students or paid for a year’s worth of free school lunches.

“Budgets are about choices, and the Queensland government has to choose between letting foreign-owned fossil fuel companies dodge their payments or whether to spend more on services for ordinary Queenslanders who are struggling.

“After winning the federal election, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese spoke of ‘doing things the Australian way’ and of ‘progressive patriotism’.

“This new research shows that the Queensland government could use a dose of progressive patriotism as well.

“Despite being one of the world’s largest exporters of gas and coal, Australians are paying high prices for energy.

Environment Minister Murray Watt is known as Labor’s political “fixer” – Australians have given him the opportunity to fix something for us, and our planet.

The Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act (EPBC) was enacted in 2000 as the country’s first attempt at a holistic approach to balance the desire for growth with the need for environmental protection.

At the same time, the world was beginning global efforts to reduce emissions and stabilise the climate.

The Howard government failed to integrate action on climate with protecting and restoring nature. It was a failure repeated by successive governments.

The original EPBC Act did not include a mechanism for dealing with growing emissions and climate change. But Australia had at least signalled its intention to be part of global efforts to stabilise the climate, with then-environment minister Robert Hill signing the Kyoto Protocol in 1997.

Hill always stuck to his guns on the environment. At a fossil fuel-sponsored conference in Canberra, Hill took the floor and, staring down the captains of industry, said: “I have stated many times, and will do so again, that Australia accepts the balance of the scientific evidence which suggests that human activity is accelerating the increase in the Earth’s average temperature.”

It was a backbone not found on this issue with the then-prime minister, John Howard. No doubt under pressure from fossil fuel interests, the PM refused to ratify the Kyoto Protocol, which his environment minister had signed the country on to.

On this episode of Follow the Money, Leanne Minshull and Ebony Bennett discuss the Federal Government’s efforts to push through changes to Australia’s busted environment laws with the support of the Coalition.

Dead Centre: How political pragmatism is killing us by Richard Denniss is available now via Australia Institute Press.

Guest: Leanne Minshull, co-CEO, the Australia Institute // @leanneminshull

Host: Ebony Bennett, Deputy Director, the Australia Institute // @ebonybennett

Show notes:

This shocking deal is a gross betrayal of millions of voters by Ebony Bennett, The Canberra Times (October 2025)

Top Australian scientists unite in defence of science on Maugean skate, the Australia Institute

In this current financial year, an estimated $21 billion in superannuation tax concessions will flow to the richest 10% of Australians – more than is spent on either child care subsidies, government schools or the estimated $13.6 billion that it would cost the government to include dental in Medicare.

The proposed changes would only affect around 0.5% of people with superannuation and would have been a very small but vital attempt to redress the gross imbalance in the system.

Australia Institute research shows the vast majority of people under 30 will never have more than $3 million in superannuation.

“The government’s watering down of the changes, by indexing the $3 million with inflation, and ruling out taxing unrealised capital gains will be of great comfort to those who abuse the superannuation system in order to avoid paying tax,” said Greg Jericho, Chief Economist at The Australia Institute.

“The tax system needs reform to make it fairer and to remove distortions such as the capital gains tax discount which has greatly contributed to the housing affordability crisis.

“These changes do little to rein in massive inequality of the superannuation tax system.

“The government’s decision today will embolden those who prefer a tax system that favours the rich.”

On this episode of After America, Elizabeth Pancotti, economic policy specialist and former advisor to Senator Bernie Sanders, joins Dr Emma Shortis to discuss the US government shutdown and how the Trump administration is using it to further consolidate power.

This discussion was recorded on Friday 10 October 2025.

Tickets for America Unravelling, featuring Emma Shortis and Don Watson, on Sunday 19 October at the Queenscliffe Literary Festival are available online.

Dead Centre: How political pragmatism is killing us by Richard Denniss is available now via Australia Institute Press.

Guest: Elizabeth Pancotti, Managing Director of Policy and Advocacy, Groundwork Collaborative // @ENPancotti

Host: Emma Shortis, Director, International & Security Affairs, the Australia Institute // @emmashortis

Show notes:

“Single JobSeeker [payment] just hit $400 a week. Let me know how you’d go if you were getting that little and were randomly not paid.”

This comment, from the people behind Nobody Deserves Poverty, points to the ignored cruelty at the heart of one of Australia’s most shameful open secrets.

The mutual obligations system – the system by which we set (through privatised “job providers”) mostly demeaning and useless tasks for unemployed people to meet in order to receive their welfare benefits – is documented to cause harm, with little evidence it actually does anything to meet its main objective: get people into work.

The system is so convoluted and already stacked against people that even without the issue of lawfulness, it would still be not just harmful, but useless. In terms of punishing people, it is working as intended. But governments tend to pay attention when harm can also be considered unlawful, and that’s the issue here.

When the Coalition introduced the Targeted Compliance Framework (TCF) in 2017-18, it gave private job agencies the power to punish “non-compliant” job-seeker behaviour without the checks and balances of government.

If a job agency decides that one of their “clients” hasn’t met their mutual obligations – or just screws up and doesn’t report that they have – welfare recipients literally pay the price. Their payments can be suspended, or they can be forced into menial work-for-the-dole programs, without any consideration of their suitability. Concerns were raised almost immediately.

I’ve been lucky enough to complete a few multi-day hikes overseas in the past few years. Every morning, I woke up in my tent with the feeling that something wasn’t quite right and then I realised why – it was practically silent.

There’s no cackle of kookaburras at dawn, no warble of magpies, or comforting screeches of cockatoos. Songbirds the world over had their evolutionary origins right here in Australia, but we’ve got the original and the best (and the loudest).

As a giant island, Australia is a hotspot for biodiversity. We are home to countless plant and animal species found nowhere else on Earth, thanks to millions of years of evolution in isolation.

Overall, Australia’s nature laws have done a crap job of protecting them. Unfortunately, Environment Minister Murray Watt looks set to continue that track record, with news he’ll be negotiating to pass an overhaul of Australia’s nature laws with the Coalition, not the Greens. That pretty much tells you everything you need to know.

The Wrap with Hayden Starr

For the last five years I’ve worked behind the scenes, helping communicate the Australia Institute’s research online and on social media, including writing and editing this newsletter. As my time with the Australia Institute comes to an end, it’s my pleasure to write The Wrap for my last newsletter with you.

It takes a lot to change someone’s mind. It takes a lot to change a country. Even more so when you are up against the very well-resourced and very powerful misinformation machines that serve to defend and consolidate power, wealth, and the status quo.

There are few better examples than that of the fossil fuel industry. Greenwashing gas, overinflating economic benefits, spreading lies about renewable energy, all while digging new coal mines and gas wells and paying a pittance (or nothing) in tax.

“Australia is one of the biggest gas exporters in the world.

“Yet when gas prices go up, it’s Australians that feel poor.”

These claims have been dutifully repeated, but a close look at the university’s audited accounts tells a very different story.

To be clear, the numbers signed off by their auditor state that in 2024 ANU recorded a $90 million surplus and increased the value of its net assets.

So, how do you turn a $90 million surplus into a $142.5 million deficit?

Easy. You just exclude nearly a quarter of a billion dollars of revenue that the auditor thought should be included.

By excluding $232.4 million of revenue recognised by the independent auditor, the ANU was able to transform its healthy surplus in 2024 into a “underlying operating deficit.”

Sounds scary, right?

The auditors ticked off on one set of numbers, and the senior leadership waved another set at their staff, students and community in order to justify the spending cuts they want to make.

To be clear, according to the ANU’s audited financial results, it had $3.8 billion in net assets at the end of 2024, compared to $3.7 billion at the end of 2023.

On this episode of Dollars & Sense, Greg and Elinor discuss housing affordability, how so many of Australia’s biggest companies manage to pay zero (0) corporate tax, and how Trump made solving the tax problem that much harder.

Use the code ‘podcast’ to get 50% off tickets to the Australia Institute’s Revenue Summit. Discount available for Dollars & Sense listeners while stocks last.

Dead Centre: How political pragmatism is killing us by Richard Denniss is available now via the Australia Institute website.

This discussion was recorded on Thursday 9 October 2025.

Host: Greg Jericho, Chief Economist, the Australia Institute // @grogsgamut

Host: Elinor Johnston-Leek, Senior Content Producer, the Australia Institute // @elinorjohnstonleek

Show notes:

On this episode of Follow the Money, Matt Grudnoff and Ebony Bennett discuss the latest data from the Australian Taxation Office showing that 30 per cent of large corporations paid no company tax in 2023-24 – with the gas, coal, salmon and tech industries among the worst offenders.

Use the code ‘podcast’ to get 50% off tickets to the Australia Institute’s Revenue Summit. Discount available for Follow the Money listeners while stocks last.

Guest: Matt Grudnoff, Senior Economist, the Australia Institute // @mattgrudnoff

Host: Ebony Bennett, Deputy Director, the Australia Institute // @ebonybennett

Show notes:

New government data confirms gas exporters continue to pay no tax, the Australia Institute (October 2025)

Big gas is taking the piss, Follow the Money, the Australia Institute (April 2025)

Theme music: Pulse and Thrum; additional music by Blue Dot Sessions

On this episode of After America, Antoun Issa joins Dr Emma Shortis to discuss the prospects for a deal that did not include Palestinians in the negotiating process. They also discuss the role of the United States in the Middle East, how power works in foreign policy, and opening up space for a bigger discussion about foreign policy here in Australia.

This episode was recorded on Friday 3 October.

Dead Centre: How political pragmatism is killing us by Richard Denniss is available now via Australia Institute Press.

Guest: Antoun Issa, Founder, DeepCut // @antounissa

Host: Emma Shortis, Director of International & Security Affairs, the Australia Institute // @emmashortis

Show notes:

Beyond the Two-State Solution: Policy responses to the Destruction of Palestine and the Insecurity of Israel, the Australia Institute (February 2025)

Australians overwhelmingly back sanctions on Israel, new poll finds by Alex McKinnon, DeepCut (October 2025)

The Royal Commission into Robodebt recommended making cabinet documents easier to access under FOI laws, finding the current system thwarted investigations into the scheme.

The Prime Minister himself described Robodebt as a “gross betrayal and human tragedy”, yet his government plans to make cabinet documents harder to access.

This is in direct defiance of the Robodebt Royal Commission’s recommendation to make cabinet documents available for public scrutiny.

“If cabinet documents had been public, the unlawful and cruel Robodebt scheme could have been exposed and prevented. For that reason, the Robodebt Royal Commission recommended making cabinet documents available under FOI,” said Bill Browne, Director of the Australia Institute’s Democracy & Accountability Program.

“The Albanese government wants to make documents even harder to access, in defiance of the Royal Commission, increasing the risk the next Robodebt will happen in secret.”

“The over-use of the cabinet document exemption and other problems with the FOI system are critical reasons why Robodebt was allowed to continue with impunity for so long,” said Maria O’Sullivan, Associate Professor at Deakin Law School.

“The proposed changes to the FOI Act will actually expand the cabinet exemption even further.”

The new research also reveals that it is government inefficiency, not the number of requests, behind the growing cost of the FOI system.

Someone did, however, in that very same talkback segment. Phyllis rang in to say she did want to complain, because she wanted to retire and downsize, but property prices were growing so fast that she was worried about buying and selling in the same market – even if it was a smaller property.

Howard told her she was wrong.

“You’re not actually complaining. What you’re really saying is the value of a house hasn’t gone up enough,” he said.

Phyllis was having none of it: “No, no, no. I disagree. I think that it is ridiculous that the inflation of the housing prices … what about our grandchildren?”

Phyllis was right. Because while she complained, in late 2003, about people having to spend “$500,000 … on some broken-down old dump”, the median house price for her grandchildren – assuming they live in Queensland – is now $977,300.

The government knew house prices were a problem then, and it knows they are a problem now.

And just like Howard, who was told by the Productivity Commission in 2004 – in a briefing prepared for his cabinet – that an urgent review of his capital gains tax changes was needed to arrest the jumps in the housing market, every single government has only made short-term changes that ultimately make the situation worse, rather than get to the root cause. And they are STILL doing it.

In 2003 Howard blamed low interest rates for rising house prices, as people could afford to borrow more.

ATO data reveals:

• Santos Limited has racked up a 10th straight year of zero corporate tax payments from a total of nearly $47 billion in sales.
• Darwin’s Ichthys LNG Pty Ltd paid zero corporate tax for the 6th year running, from a total of $43 billion in sales.
• Petroleum Resource Rent Tax (PRRT) revenue has hit a 3-year low, down to $1.5 billion from a peak of $2.0 billion in 2021-22.

“The new tax data shows, yet again, that big gas is taking the piss out of Australians,” said Rod Campbell, Research Director at The Australia Institute.

“It beggars belief that a company like Santos can spend a decade selling almost $50 billion worth of gas and not pay a cent of tax on it.

“Japanese ambassadors and executives see fit to lecture Australia on energy and tax policy, while Japanese entities like Ichthys pay zero company tax and zero PRRT.

“PRRT revenue was lower in the latest year of data (2023-24) even though production and prices were high and a Labor government had been in power for over a year.

“Australia Institute research shows that over the 10 years to 2023-24, nurses paid $7 billion more in tax than did the oil and gas companies. How’s that fair?

On this episode of Dollars & Sense, Greg and Elinor discuss whether Emirati supermarket chain Lulu will take on Colesworth, the Reserve Bank’s decision to keep rates on hold, Trump’s unworkable tariffs on foreign films, and how the government could actually address the housing crisis.

Use the code ‘podcast’ to get 50% off tickets to the Australia Institute’s Revenue Summit. Featuring Hon Steven Miles MP, Senator Larissa Waters, Senator David Pocock, Dr Kate Chaney MP, Greg Jericho and more, the Summit is on Wednesday 29 October at Parliament House in Canberra. Discount available for Dollars & Sense listeners while stocks last.

Dead Centre: How political pragmatism is killing us by Richard Denniss is available now via the Australia Institute website.

This discussion was recorded on Thursday 2 October 2025.

Host: Greg Jericho, Chief Economist, the Australia Institute // @grogsgamut

Host: Elinor Johnston-Leek, Senior Content Producer, the Australia Institute // @elinorjohnstonleek

Show notes:

Save Tuvalu, Save The World can now be viewed publicly on YouTube.

In tiny, idyllic Tuvalu, there are no climate deniers. It’s impossible to deny what’s happening before your very eyes.

Sea water is pushing up through the land, destroying traditional crops and making the water unfit to drink. High tides are inundating the country, flooding the main island’s only airport, cutting Tuvalu off from the world.

“Tuvalu is ground zero for the global climate crisis,” said Stephen Long, filmmaker and Senior Fellow and Contributing Editor at The Australia Institute.

“No nation is more vulnerable than this small Pacific country.”

Save Tuvalu, Save The World looks at climate change through the eyes of those experiencing the consequences of climate change in their everyday lives, including young climate campaigner Gitty Yee, who visited Australia last week for three sold-out preview screenings of the documentary.

“I see myself as a climate warrior,” Gitty says.

“I fight for my country, and I fight for what we believe in. I fight for our right to live, our right to prosper, for our future generations.”

From Senate Committee hearings to interviews, as well as reacting to everything going on in the news, check out a few highlights of our impact!

The post September 2025 Media Highlights appeared first on The Australia Institute.

Audited accounts show that the ANU generated a $90 million surplus in 2024 and increased the value of its net assets.

However, the ANU’s leadership declared an ‘underlying operating deficit’ of $142.5 million in 2024.

This was by dismissing a lot of the revenue items recognised by the Auditor.

Analysis shows that to get from the audited surplus of $89.9 million to an unaudited deficit of $142.5 million, $232.4 million revenue has been left unaccounted for.

“If an organisation – as opposed to its auditors – chooses to ignore nearly one quarter of a billion dollars in revenue then the organisation’s financial result will appear one quarter of a billion dollars worse,” said Dr Richard Denniss, co-CEO of The Australia Institute.

“Our paper outlines items the auditor included, and that the ANU leadership rejected. It shows any argument that the ANU is in an unhealthy financial position is flimsy.

“If we believe the auditor, there is no crisis at the ANU.

“To be clear, as a government owned, not-for-profit entity, the ANU is under no pressure to maximise its profits so that it can maximise dividends paid to shareholders.

“On the contrary, when the ANU made a surplus of $89.9 million in 2024 it did so by spending less money on its students, staff and community than it received.

On this episode of Follow the Money, Dr Emma Shortis and Glenn Connley discuss Anthony Albanese’s major diplomatic tour, the US Defense Secretary’s concerning warning to his top brass, and why the Trump-Netanyahu peace plan seems “doomed to fail”.

You can sign our petition calling on the Australian Government to launch a parliamentary inquiry into AUKUS.

After America: Australia and the new world order by Emma Shortis is available via Australia Institute Press.

Guest: Emma Shortis, Director of International & Security Affairs, the Australia Institute // @emmashortis

Host: Glenn Connley, Senior Media Advisor, the Australia Institute // @glennconnley

Show notes:

After America, the Australia Institute

The list has been compiled by Dr Frank Yuan, Postdoctoral Fellow at The Australia Institute, who insists China is far less mysterious and scary than most Australians might think.

In fact, he says, beyond daily news references to China’s economic and military power, there are countless stories of successful Chinese business tycoons, entertainers, journalists, academics and government officials – many with deep connections to the west.

There’s the tech mogul who flew too close to the sun, the “wolf warrior” journalist who once described Australia as “chewed gum stuck on China’s boot” and the global pop star who could teach Taylor Swift a thing or two.

The paper – Today’s China in Seven Life Stories – urges Australian to get to know the woman behind the face on the label of their favourite chili sauce, the energy tsar helping transform China into a renewable energy superpower and the theoretician who’s shaped China’s foreign outlook under three Presidents.

“China is a surprisingly cosmopolitan society. It is full of countless rags-to-riches stories as part of the astounding economic development it has experienced since the 1980s,” said Dr Frank Yuan.

“Many Chinese elites have not only visited western countries, but even educational or professional connections with them. Increasingly, popular culture in China is also becoming part of the globalised pop culture.

The Australia Institute board is pleased to announce Leanne Minshull has been named as co-Chief Executive Officer.

Leanne will be working in the role alongside Dr Richard Denniss, who will also serve as co-Chief Executive Officer.

Formerly the Institute’s Strategy Director, Leanne has built an extensive network across political, advocacy, and business communities, working as a senior strategist in social, environmental, not-for-profit, and political sectors.

Quotes attributable to Australia Institute Board Chair, Dr John McKinnon:

“The board is thrilled to have such capable and experienced leaders within the Institute, and under the leadership of Richard and Leanne we can ensure we remain effective as we continue to grow.

“The Australia Institute is nation’s most consequential think tank, and with more than 50 staff working on multiple projects and initiatives, we are one of the country’s most high-impact organisations.

“We look forward to the next chapter in the Institute’s development and our growing role in helping shape the future of the nation.”

Quotes attributable to Australia Institute co-Chief Executive Officer, Richard Denniss:

“I am thrilled Leanne has agreed to take on the role of co-CEO.

“Leanne brings a wealth of experience to the organisation, through decades of working to make Australia a fairer place across politics, policy, and advocacy.

In the Pacific island nation of Tuvalu, sea water is being pushed up through the land, destroying traditional crops and making water unfit to drink. Tuvalu’s low-lying islands and atolls could become unliveable within decades, and without urgent action, it is a fate that could be shared by other Pacific nations, and Indigenous people in the Torres Strait islands.

A new documentary highlighting the devastating impact of climate change on the Pacific Island nation of Tuvalu has been previewed in Melbourne, Sydney and Canberra. Save Tuvalu, Save the World is presented by Walkley Award-winning journalist and former ABC Four Corners reporter Stephen Long, and tells the story of a country on the frontline of rising seas.

The screenings drew strong interest from audiences keen to better understand the human consequences of global warming. Each event featured a Q&A session with Long and climate campaigner and Tuvalu resident Gitty K Yee, who shared personal insights into the challenges Tuvaluans face. In Sydney, the discussion also included City of Sydney Councillor Jess Miller, adding a local perspective on climate action.

Greg Jericho, Chief Economist at The Australia Institute, describes the decision as “very cruel”, ensuring more pain for those struggling with high mortgage repayments and more job losses.

He says all the key economic data supported another interest rate cut, which would have given them much-needed relief after three years of pain.

“The Reserve Bank has once again chosen to be content with rising unemployment,” said Greg Jericho, Chief Economist at The Australia Institute.

“While there have been some signs of improved household spending, the major reason for the increase has been the recent interest rate cuts, rather than an underlying strength in the economy.

“The last recent GDP figures showed the economy still growing at barely half the long-term average, while unemployment has been rising steadily for all of this year.

“The opportunity to lock in unemployment at 4% is fast disappearing due to the Reserve Bank believing there needs to be more people unemployed in order to keep inflation below 3%.

“For those Australians forced to live in poverty on Jobseeker, this is a very cruel decision.”

The post RBA banks on higher unemployment, more pain appeared first on The Australia Institute.

On this episode of After America, Charlie Lewis joins Dr Emma Shortis to discuss the apparent obsession of Anthony Albanese’s opponents with that bilateral meeting, the transformation of the Republican Party under Trump, and how Australia’s political landscape is being influenced by MAGA.

This episode was recorded on Thursday 25 September.

Dead Centre: How political pragmatism is killing us by Richard Denniss is available now via the Australia Institute website.

Guest: Charlie Lewis, reporter-at-large, Crikey // @theshufflediary

Host: Emma Shortis, Director of International & Security Affairs, the Australia Institute // @emmashortis

Show notes: 

Welcome to the new McCarthyism by Charlie Lewis, Crikey (September 2025)

Theme music: Blue Dot Sessions

If you believe the markets, there won’t be an interest rate cut after this week’s Reserve Bank meeting.

You’re likely to hear a bunch of reasons but missing from them is the most important one: The RBA has no confidence in what inflation is going to do and it is continually worried that it is about to shoot up.

In the past, the RBA has been confident in its inflation predictions. It needed to be.

The impact of interest rates on the economy takes time and you need to set them for where you think inflation is going to be in six to 12 months, not where they have been in the past.

But in the past decade, the central bank has made some spectacular mistakes about movements in inflation. The biggest was former Governor Philip Lowe saying interest rates wouldn’t rise until at least 2024.

He then had to rapidly increase them in 2022.

To be fair to Lowe, he did have some caveats on that prediction. But the public, including the media, largely took it as a promise.

The RBA was also caught out before the pandemic, keeping interest rates too high because it thought inflation was about to increase. It never did and the subsequent Reserve Bank review criticised it for that inaction.

Both of these episodes highlight that the RBA has misunderstood the main drivers of inflation.

This seems to have shaken it, and instead of looking forward with confidence, it is looking behind in fear.

The Wrap with Matt Grudnoff

This week, we published important research that looked at terrible flaws in the GST that are costing Australians billions of dollars in important government services, like health, education, housing, and infrastructure.

When the GST was introduced, it was promised to be a growth tax that would help make the states and territories financially independent. But growth in the GST has not kept up with the rest of the economy. The slow growing GST means less revenue flowing to the states and territories, forcing cost cutting to essential public services.

This slow growth is expected to continue, costing the states and territories $26 billion this financial year and a staggering $122 billion over the next four years.

Short-changing the states and territories is having real impacts on the vital government services they provide. Shortfalls in funding of health, education, and other vital public services are commonplace across Australia.

The slow growth in the GST is caused by rising inequality, which is driving less spending on things that are subject to the GST. For example, the housing affordability crisis means people are spending more on rent and mortgage repayments, which means they have less money to spend on things that are subject to the GST.

On this episode of Dollars & Sense, Greg and Elinor discuss Jim Chalmers vs red tape, what the latest inflation data could mean for the November rates decision, and how governments could ensure GST revenues keep up with economic growth.

Tickets for our Revenue Summit at Parliament House in Canberra, featuring Hon Steven Miles MP, Senator Larissa Waters, Senator David Pocock, Dr Kate Chaney MP, Greg Jericho and more – are available now. You can buy second release tickets for just $109 via our website.

Dead Centre: How political pragmatism is killing us by Richard Denniss is available now via the Australia Institute website.

This discussion was recorded on Thursday 25 September 2025.

Host: Greg Jericho, Chief Economist, the Australia Institute // @grogsgamut

Host: Elinor Johnston-Leek, Senior Content Producer, the Australia Institute // @elinorjohnstonleek

Show notes:

Today, at the United Nations, the governments of Colombia and Vanuatu are publicly announcing a plan to host the First International Conference for the Phase-Out of Fossil Fuels in April, 2026.

Australia Institute research has, for many years, proved that the best way to limit the devastating impact of climate change is to phase out the burning of fossil fuels.

The Australia Institute welcomes this long-overdue news.

“Many UN treaties began from countries working outside the formal process, building momentum until the formal processes finally, sometime begrudgingly, adopted them,” said Leanne Minshull, co-Executive Director at The Australia Institute.

“My hope is that this announcement, this week is the beginning of the end for Australia’s – and the world’s – fossil fuel industries.

“Australia has an opportunity to show genuine climate leadership, and support Vanuatu and Colombia’s process for a global phase out of fossil fuels. Missing this opportunity would expose our bid to host COP31 in late 2026 as an exercise in greenwashing rather than real action.

“The Australia Institute has been working to phase out fossil fuels for decades. We launched our No New Coal Mines work at the 2015 Paris COP meeting, supported by then-President of Kiribati, Anote Tong.”

On this episode of Follow the Money, Australia Institute Executive Director Richard Denniss joins Ebony Bennett to discuss the National Climate Risk Assessment, the Government’s new emissions reduction targets, and its disastrous decision to approve the North West Shelf gas expansion.

Dead Centre: How political pragmatism is killing us by Richard Denniss is available now via the Australia Institute website.

Guest: Richard Denniss, Executive Director, the Australia Institute // @richarddenniss

Host: Ebony Bennett, Deputy Director, the Australia Institute // @ebonybennett

Show notes:

Labor’s 62 to 70% climate target does not align with the science, but can be met by phasing out fossil fuels, the Australia Institute (September 2025)

Devastating climate risk assessment shows fossil fuel exports must end, the Australia Institute (September 2025)

This is a similar line to the one often used by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Energy Minister Chris Bowen, suggesting Australia needs more gas to underpin the nation’s electricity supply.

Australia Institute research, using the government’s and the gas companies’ own data, proves this is simply not true.

Australia has so much gas that it exports most of it, royalty-free, overseas. Even then, there is enough uncontracted gas to comfortably supply all of Australia’s domestic and manufacturing needs.

The analysis shows that so-called shortages are the result of too much gas being exported, not a shortage of gas coming from underground.

There’s also significant data to show that batteries are a  lower-cost alternative to gas for firming renewables.

The brouhaha over Donald Trump’s latest attack on a journalist for doing journalism (this time the excellent John Lyons) rather overshadowed it, but Anthony Albanese’s trip to Papua New Guinea made one thing undeniably clear.

The Pacific has lost patience with Australia.

This is not new, nor particularly earth-shattering as analysis. But it does pose larger questions for Australia moving forward, as the old ways of doing business with our regional neighbours no longer cut it.

One reason Australia has always been so clumsy in its dealings with the Pacific is that it only ever views the Pacific in terms of defence.  What can the Pacific do for Australia? Who doesn’t Australia want on its doorstep? What does Australia have to do to ensure the defence of the region?

Defence, of course, has its place. But the Pacific is a diaspora of cultures and people who do not exist to serve as pawns in Australia’s defence strategies with the United States. And yet, in our dealings with the Pacific, that is always the frame.

Papua New Guinea not signing an agreement Albanese visited the nation to sign, on the back of Vanuatu also withholding its agreement on a separate deal makes very, very clear the Pacific has run out of patience with us.

On this episode of After America, Allan Behm joins Dr Emma Shortis to discuss the MAGA movement’s weaponisation of Charlie Kirk’s murder, why no Trump meeting might be the best outcome for Anthony Albanese, formal recognition of Palestine, and Australia’s disastrous fortnight of Pacific diplomacy.

This episode was recorded on Monday 22 September.

‘Save Tuvalu, Save the World’ is our September Politics in the Pub – join us at 6.30pm on Wednesday 24 September live in Canberra or via the livestream.

Dead Centre: How political pragmatism is killing us by Richard Denniss is available now via the Australia Institute website.

Guest: Allan Behm, Special Advisor in International Affairs, the Australia Institute

Host: Emma Shortis, Director of International & Security Affairs, the Australia Institute // @emmashortis

Show notes:

Jimmy Kimmel’s cancellation is the latest sign we’re witnessing the end of US democracy by Emma Shortis, The Conversation (September 2025)

Hundreds of live music venues have closed. A string of once-popular festivals have been cancelled. Australia’s artists continue to be desperately underpaid.

The cost-of-living crisis has left our creative sector for dead, despite 73% of Australians saying the arts had improved their quality of life during the pandemic.

Art pays its way. It doesn’t just create joy and happiness for Australians and overseas visitors; it creates jobs and economic growth – on a shoestring budget compared to other industries.

The Australia Institute has written a submission to the NSW government ahead of its Art of Tax Reform summit next week.

Key recommendations:

• Collect tax properly to pay for arts funding.
  • Lobby the federal government to reform the GST so it keeps up with economic growth, as it was originally designed to do.
  • Increase coal royalties and end fossil fuel subsidies in NSW.
• Introduce Youth Cultural Passes, similar to the $200 Dine & Discover vouchers during COVID.
• Introduce a Book Bounty, like the national bounty which was scrapped by the Howard government after 28 successful years.
• Make art prizes and grants tax free.

“The cost of living crisis has had a devastating impact on the arts,” said Skye Predavec, Anne Kantor Fellow at The Australia Institute.

On this episode of Dollars & Sense, Greg returns from his holiday to talk about the National Climate Risk Assessment reveals about the future of the Australian economy. Plus: the tricky task of measuring inflation for sectors like health and aged care and why the government’s wellbeing budget is falling flat.

Tickets for our Revenue Summit at Parliament House in Canberra, featuring Hon Steven Miles MP, Senator Larissa Waters, Senator David Pocock, Dr Kate Chaney MP, Greg Jericho and more – are available now.  You can buy second release tickets for just $109 via our website.

Dead Centre: How political pragmatism is killing us by Richard Denniss is available now via Australia Institute Press.

Host: Greg Jericho, Chief Economist, the Australia Institute // @grogsgamut

Host: Elinor Johnston-Leek, Senior Content Producer, the Australia Institute // @elinorjohnstonleek

Show notes:

National Climate Risk Assessment, Australian Climate Service

On this episode of Follow the Money, former Labor Senator for New South Wales Doug Cameron speaks about the Australia-US relationship, the “madness” of AUKUS, and how the federal government can prepare for peace – not war.

The 2025 Laurie Carmichael Lecture was delivered on Wednesday 10 September and presented by the Carmichael Centre at the Australia Institute’s Centre for Future Work.

You can sign our petition calling on the Australian Government to launch a parliamentary inquiry into AUKUS.

After America: Australia and the new world order by Emma Shortis and Dead Centre: How political pragmatism is killing us by Richard Denniss are available now via the Australia Institute website.

Guest: Doug Cameron, former Labor Senator for New South Wales // @DougCameron51

Host: Ebony Bennett, Deputy Director, the Australia Institute // @ebonybennett

Show notes:

Today marks one year since the publication of the first Tasmanian State of Environment Report in 15 years.

This report provides critical health checks for Tasmania’s environment, which is fundamental to Tasmanians’ health and their economy.

The Tasmanian Government has had more than 12 months to address the threats the environment is facing, and based on the available information, nothing has changed.

The report raised the alarm for an environment in decline and facing multiple threats.

It found the majority of environmental indicators were ‘getting worse’ – ranging from deteriorating beaches and rapid native vegetation loss to the increase in animals and plants threatened with extinction.

Over a third of indicators are now classified as in ‘poor condition’, including Tasmania’s native bird populations.

The government agreed to prioritise developing a long-term vision and strategy for Tasmania’s environment, as recommended by the Tasmanian Planning Commission, to safeguard the long-term environmental health of the state.

It also agreed to prioritise developing an environmental data strategy, to assess which environmental laws need reform, and to improve native vegetation mapping and information.

“Without adequate government investment, the state’s iconic natural assets will continue to degrade, which will likely have a damaging effect on the state’s economy, employment and the health of Tasmanians,” said Eloise Carr, Director of The Australia Institute Tasmania.

The assessment describes “severe” risks to defence and national security; regional, urban and remote communities; health and the environment; as well as “very high” risks to the economy and food production.

These include:

• 1.5 million Australians living along the coastline would be under threat of rising sea levels by 2050.
• Deaths caused by heatwaves will soar by more than 400% in places like Sydney and Darwin.
• 63 “nationally significant” climate risks identified, including threats to social cohesion, supply chains and essential services.

Australia Institute research shows burning fossil fuels (coal, oil and gas) compromises the fundamental systems underpinning Australia’s security, wellbeing and prosperity.

Coal and gas exports from Australia are also playing a major role in the destruction of the world’s climate, and climate change is having a devastating impact on Australia’s neighbours in the Pacific.

“Coal and gas exports from Australia are playing a major role in destroying the world’s climate, with devastating consequences for all the systems underpinning the security, wellbeing and prosperity of Australians,” said Richard Denniss, Executive Director of The Australia Institute.

“Climate change is making fires, floods and heatwaves more frequent and extreme. This isn’t just devastating in itself; it is driving our insurance premiums through the roof and making many homes uninsurable.

On this episode of After America, Dr Emma Shortis and Angus Blackman discuss the assassination of Charlie Kirk, Elon Musk’s latest foray into global far-right politics, and the devastating impact of Robert F Kennedy Jr’s ‘Make America Healthy Again’ agenda.

This episode was recorded on Monday 15 September.

After America: Australia and the new world order by Emma Shortis and Dead Centre: How political pragmatism is killing us by Richard Denniss are available now via the Australia Institute website.

Host: Emma Shortis, Director of International & Security Affairs, the Australia Institute // @emmashortis

Host: Angus Blackman, Producer, the Australia Institute // @AngusRB

Show notes:

Charlie Kirk Didn’t Shy Away From Who He Was. We Shouldn’t Either by Jamelle Bouie, The New York Times (September 2025)

On the Mindless Menace of Violence, Robert F. Kennedy (1968)

There’s a huge difference between the symbolism of poor optics and the substance of poor strategy.

There’s no doubt appearing in a group photo that included dictators Kim Jong Un and Vladimir Putin was poor optics for Dan Andrews (perhaps why Bob Carr chose to skip it).

Barnaby Joyce responded by urging Andrews “don’t come home”, and The Australian wrote about “how Andrews and Carr became Xi’s ‘useful idiots'”.

But in the end the photo was pure symbolism; Daniel Andrews appearance in it poses no threat at all to the security of Australians.

While the political establishment spent a lot of effort finger-wagging at a photo, they missed the significance of massive strategic transition that we’re watching happen in real time.

The Australia Institute’s Allan Behm once wrote that the greatest strategic risk to Australia was “the political and social collapse of the United States of America”, because America’s strategic collapse would follow. If as many front pages or column inches had been devoted to the security implications of Australia’s biggest military ally rapidly descending into outright authoritarianism as the supposed threat from China, perhaps Australia would be in a better position.

The decline of the United States has been rapid. Australia is unprepared for the fallout.

President Donald Trump is deploying the military against the civilian population in Democrat-run cities like Chicago and Los Angeles.

It marks the greatest giveaway of Australian resources ever and will undermine the nation’s energy security, while driving up energy prices.

Environment Minister Murray Watt has not provided details of the conditions on Woodside to protect the ancient, priceless Murujuga rock art or how much Woodside succeeded in watering down those conditions during 12 weeks of secret negotiations. However, it is clear that acid gas emissions from the project will continue corroding Murujuga until 2070.

Massive emissions

The approval will add around 90 million tonnes of emissions to the atmosphere annually, equivalent to building 12 new coal power stations.

Undermine energy security

The extension allows Woodside to export enough gas to supply Western Australia for around 90 years, despite WA facing looming gas shortages and price increases. Analysis here.

The Wrap with Amy Remeikis

The world is at a crossroads and so far, Australia is reacting by sticking its head in the sand and pretending nothing is changing.

Leaders from across the globe are about to meet at the 80th UN General Assembly, in a nation which has cancelled the visas of Palestinian Authority delegates, is disappearing people off its streets, carrying out extrajudicial death sentences in its waters, and openly threatening war.

These are not normal times. Pretending they are, is part of what got us here in the first place.

The meeting will kick off on Tuesday, when the incoming president, Annalena Baerbock, a former German foreign affairs minister, will outline her agenda which runs until September 8 next year. She is taking the reins at a time where the UN director at the International Crisis Group, Richard Gowan, says “illusions have been rather stripped away” about the world, and how people feel about its leaders. “It’s now very, very clear that both financially and politically, the UN faces huge crises,” he said.

“Now the question is, is there a way through that?”

And indeed, what role does Australia play in that?

Australia is part of the nations who have agreed to give conditional recognition to Palestine, but it remains unclear at this point what that will look like at the meeting.

On this episode of Dollars & Sense, Matt tells Elinor about the massive class action lawsuit settlement the Government made with the victims of Robodebt, Labor potentially getting cold feet on superannuation tax concession reform, and what they both tell us about how Australia views our poorest and wealthiest people.

This discussion was recorded on Thursday 11 September 2025 and things may have changed since recording.

Dead Centre: How political pragmatism is killing us by Richard Denniss is available now via the Australia Institute website.

Host: Matt Grudnoff, Senior Economist, the Australia Institute // @mattgrudnoff

Host: Elinor Johnston-Leek, Senior Content Producer, the Australia Institute // @elinorjohnstonleek

Show notes:

The Australia Institute Revenue Summit 2025

‘The changes to superannuation tax concessions are needed and very fair’ by Greg Jericho, the Australia Institute (May 2025)

The proposed park ends native forest logging on the land and creates a vast sanctuary for koalas and 66 other threatened species.

But it’s always best to read the fine print and understand the Ts&Cs. In this case, they reveal a diabolical trade off.

The native forest will only be saved from logging if the government can monetise it as “carbon credits”.

“The final creation of the park is dependent on the successful registration of a carbon project,” the government makes abundantly clear.

It wants the Clean Energy Regulator to let it generate carbon credits, it seems, from a national park – an unprecedented step. If it can’t, the government says the vast koala sanctuary on the state’s mid north coast won’t go ahead.

Why is this demand a worry?

The NSW plan would only protect forests if they were monetised in ways that support continued carbon emissions.

Carbon credits are a license to pollute. If the NSW government is allowed to generate carbon credits from native forests earmarked for the great koala park, the most likely buyers would be big greenhouse gas emitters.

Under Australian law, these businesses can keep extracting and burning fossil fuels provided they “offset” their emissions by buying Australian Carbon Credit Units or ACCUs.

That’s how Woodside justifies its plans to open up new gas fields and process export gas on the North West Shelf until at least 2070 – with federal government approval.

Woodside Energy is apparently baulking at strict new limits on nitrous oxide emissions the Albanese government wants to impose on its massive gas project to protect the ancient Indigenous rock art at Murujuga in WA.

The emissions limits are the “major sticking point” in the way of final approval for Woodside’s North West Shelf gas development, according to the AFR Rock art protections behind Woodside North West Shelf gas project delay.

Which begs the question: why is this a negotiation?

It tells you a lot about who wields power in Australia that Woodside is being allowed to haggle in secret over the conditions.

In May, Environment Minister Murray Watt gave provisional approval to a 45-year extension of the oil and gas giant’s liquid natural gas export hub on the Burrup, and an associated gas power plant.

This was subject to “strict conditions” – but they were never made public.

Supposedly, the secrecy was imposed to provide “procedural fairness” to Woodside. The gas giant was given 10 days to respond. It missed the deadline.

Four months later, the conditions are still cloaked in secrecy – and Woodside is still chipping away at them behind closed doors. So much for transparency.

Woodside’s gas facilities are adjacent to what many experts consider the most significant Indigenous rock art site in the world: The Murujuga Cultural Landscape.

Scandals have wracked Bell’s tenure, and a variety of surveys have shown widespread dissatisfaction with the ANU’s current leadership.

But the problems at the ANU are systemic.

They will not be solved with the departure of any one figure. Indeed, the governance crisis at Australia’s universities is sector-wide. In May, Dr Joshua Black and I wrote that the ANU’s rolling crises were predictable because they stem from its flawed governance structure.

Like all of Australia’s universities, the ANU lacks effective mechanisms for transparency, accountability, and representation. Every new scandal the sector has seen in the last four months is further proof.

The core problem is a vacuum of accountability. In the university sector, no one is held responsible for failure, at least no one at the top.

While vice-chancellors have CEO-like million-dollar pay packets, the university councils they answer to do not face nearly the same scrutiny as a public company’s board of directors.

It describes changes in other jurisdictions as “rushed, self-interested and poorly justified”.

The Australia Institute submission also warns that rules on early voting, roadside election signage and a 100-metre exclusion zone for handing out how-to-vote cards could undermine election day as a “festival of democracy” in the very heart of the nation’s democracy.

Research shows that a “reimbursement” model for public funding, as recommended by the ACT Electoral Commission, would favour wealthy incumbents at the expense of new entrants.