
It’s been a rough stretch for markets.
Over the past several weeks, we’ve seen a sharp uptick in volatility and consistent selling pressure across equities. The S&P 500 is down meaningfully from its recent highs, the Nasdaq has slipped into correction territory, and investor sentiment has clearly shifted.
Naturally, the big question on everyone’s mind is:
Are we on the verge of a major bear market—or is this just a temporary pullback?
In this post, I want to walk through how I’m thinking about the current environment, with a particular focus on one key variable driving concern right now: oil and how I'm analyzing things through an MMT lens.
The Source of Market Anxiety
There are several forces converging at once:
- Geopolitical instability (particularly in the Middle East)
- Rising oil prices
- Weakness in private credit and private equity
- Broader macro uncertainty
All of this feeds into volatility. And volatility, in turn, gets priced into markets.
But volatility alone doesn’t necessarily mean we’re headed for a full-blown recession or a prolonged bear market. To answer that, we need to dig deeper into the mechanics—specifically through an MMT (Modern Monetary Theory) lens.






