Media Release Number 2025-30: Martin Thomas has been appointed as General Counsel at the RBA, leading our Legal team. The team provides legal services to the RBA, manages legal risk, and provides strategic advice to support the delivery of our charter functions and priorities.
The market for futures on Australian Government Securities (AGS) is one of Australia's key markets for trading interest rate risk, and turnover in AGS futures is substantially greater than turnover in AGS themselves. We examine liquidity in the market for futures on AGS using granular 'tick-level' data that captures trades and changes at the top of the order book from October 2019 to June 2025. We find liquidity deteriorated at the onset of COVID-19 and around the end of the RBA's yield target. Nevertheless, the market for AGS futures functioned well in the period, with market participants always able to transact (albeit sometimes at higher transaction costs). For 'news' events in the period – such as monetary policy decisions and economic data releases, which are inherently uncertain – we find liquidity tended to deteriorate briefly following these events but recovered before day's end. By contrast, for 'flow' events – such as pre-announced purchases and sales of AGS, including syndicated issuance – we find liquidity improved in anticipation of these events and smooth trading conditions were maintained. A better understanding of how liquidity in AGS futures changes in response to market-moving events should assist AGS market participants – including the RBA – to extract and interpret information from market data, and to design any AGS market transactions to maximise effectiveness while minimising side effects.
For the past few years, a growing problem has put healthcare budgets under increasing stress.
State and territory governments have been trying to do more with less, and it is all starting to come apart at the seams.
Extra money for healthcare during the pandemic hid the problem for a while. But, with those emergency sources of revenue gone, the states face funding shortfalls, and it is everyday Australians who are suffering as a result.
Overcrowded hospital waiting rooms. People waiting years in pain for hip replacements. People delaying appointments because of the cost, which then means issues are not picked up early.
Source of the problem probably not what you think
But this is not all doom and gloom. There is the real possibility of meaningful change.
The problem is that the GST is failing. The GST was created as a state tax, collected by the Commonwealth government, but then transferred in full to the state and territories.
It was promised to be the states’ own growth tax, which would help them fund their spending responsibilities, the biggest of which was healthcare.
But over the past 25 years since its introduction, it hasn’t grown with the economy.
On this episode of After America, Judge Navi Pillay, former UN High Commissioner for Human Rights and 2025 Sydney Peace Prize Laureate, joins Dr Emma Shortis to discuss accountability in international law and the prerequisites for genuine peace.
This discussion was recorded on Monday 13 October 2025.
Dead Centre: How political pragmatism is killing us by Richard Denniss is available now via Australia Institute Press.
Guest: Navi Pillay, Chair of the United Nations Human Rights Council Independent International Commission of Inquiry on the Occupied Palestinian Territory
Host: Emma Shortis, Director, International & Security Affairs, the Australia Institute // @emmashortis
On May 13, 2005, the Uzbek government killed over 700 civilians gathered in the eastern city of Andijon to protest the economic, social, and political conditions of Uzbekistan. Prompted by the imprisonment and subsequent jailbreak of popular local businessmen, the crowd grew to 10,000 people, some drawn by a rumor that their dictator, President Karimov, would address the largest protest in Uzbekistan’s history.
Instead, military forces greeted the demonstrators. According to the Uzbek government, the forces targeted only armed insurgents, 187 of whom were killed. According to nearly all other accounts, the military fired indiscriminately into the crowd, murdering at least 700 people, including children.
At the center of the massacre was a group the Uzbek government called “Akromiya”. According to the Uzbek government, Akromiya armed the militants, Akromiya gave the orders, Akromiya was responsible for the deaths of Uzbek citizens in Andijon. Akromiya was a menace that had to be stamped out at any cost.
There was one problem with this theory: Akromiya — by the accounts of Uzbek and international human rights groups, political organizations, journalists, citizens, and accused Akromiya members themselves — did not exist.
Earlier this week, Alvaro Bedoya published a story-forward account of his experience as an FTC commissioner in the US. It's the kind of story that makes an ethnographer swoon. Through his accounting, he demonstrates how his perspective on politics changed by talking with people around the country. His experience this role upended his understanding of why American people are struggling - and why they are making the political choices that they make.
His accounting reminds me so much of my experience talking with teenagers all over the US. What powerful voices think about the problems in the world often look different from a different perspective. In my case, I was grappling with how teens' understanding of their struggles, desires, and goals looked different from adults' anxieties. In Alvaro's case, he came to realize that the DC narratives animating "left" and "right" don't make sense on the ground as people struggle with the economic realities of the present. Put simply, he shows why grappling with the political economy matters. (And he makes it very clear how corporate greed and oligarchic power have shaped political views.)
There is much to gain from reading the short stories of Raymond Carver, especially for today’s conservatives. When he published in the ’70s and ’80s, Carver was unsurpassed in his popularity. Today his settings, for instance, would be immediately recognizable to the average Trump supporter: fishing trips, small farms, barber shops, motel rooms, bingo halls, and bars (plenty of bars).
His scenes are small or midsized towns in the Columbia Plateau, the Great Basin, or the Pacific Northwest (mostly coastless parts like Clatskanie, Oregon, or Yakima, Washington, where Carver was born and grew up, respectively). These regions were industrial, sleepy, homogenous, and poor during Carver’s time (he died an alcoholic’s death in 1988 at the age of 50).
Pretty much all his characters are white and working-class, a group largely sandwiched between privileged, coastal elites and handout recipients. These are people who cannot live in a world of make-believe and have to confront head-on the realities of belt-tightening, scouring for money for rent or hospital bills, cars on the verge of breakdown, etc.
Still, Carver’s plots do vary: an elderly man losing his farm to a slug infestation; a father who abandons the family dog because they can’t afford it; a postal worker who can’t stand a hippie couple who have moved onto his route; an apparently evicted man who moves the interior of his home outside for a “house party”; a depressed divorcee who finds inspiration from a double amputee, a door-to-door salesman, etc.
To mark both Challenge Poverty Week and the International Day for the Eradication of Poverty we are delighted to welcome our friends from Addressing Poverty through Lived Experience (APLE) Collective to author this guest blog. APLE continue to inspire us with their incredible work putting lived experience at the centre of decision making. At APLE Collective, we […]
Many gas exporters continue to pay no tax and PRRT payments are at a 3 year low.
The Australian government gives gas exporters more than half the gas they export royalty free.
“A 25% gas export tax would go a long way towards solving the nation’s housing crisis and the self-inflicted ‘gas crisis’ in one fell swoop,” said Rod Campbell, Research Director at The Australia Institute.
“It is extraordinary that Australia raises so little money from gas exports, despite being one of the world’s largest producers.
“This is an opportunity for the Albanese government to implement progressive patriotism and put the interests of Australian households and businesses ahead of gas industry greed.
In July, the Trump Administration published “Winning the AI Race: America’s AI Action Plan,” a blueprint for American leadership in the defining technological endeavor of the 21st century. President Trump and key advisors like David Sacks and Michael Kratsios are setting the regulatory stage to ensure America dominates in AI, and that the government supports innovation and channels use cases to ends that serve the American people.
The Plan acknowledges that the administration’s aggressive embrace of AI leadership is not without risk. From labor to culture to national security, AI will fundamentally alter the landscape, introducing vast potential for good but also pitfalls that must be avoided. Above all, America’s adoption of AI must preserve the character of our people and the integrity of our economy, giving Americans confidence in the prospects of a future where AI propels us to untold levels of national greatness.
Here’s the thing you need to understand about the artificial intelligence race: it’s exponential, not linear. In a traditional race, the track underneath you doesn’t change in real time. But when it comes to AI, a single innovation can radically transform the field. Think of a poker table, where the deck reshuffles mid-hand.
In January, a little-known Chinese startup called DeepSeek jolted the stock market with a cheaper reasoning model than anyone thought possible. Immediately, AI chip and Big Tech stocks plummeted, the Nasdaq slid about 3%, and Nvidia shed roughly $590 billion in market value—the largest one-day wipeout on record.
Last month, Nvidia published a Nature paper, claiming it trained its flagship “R1” for about $294,000 on export-restricted H800 chips. That’s a suspiciously low number, to say the least. For context, the H800 is a purposely less capable chip in order to get around export controls. Most in the field are quick to dismiss this problem, claiming the U.S. is still well ahead of China. But it’s still prudent to take into account the existence of a competitive, cheap, Chinese model.
The American Mind’s ‘Editorial Roundtable’ podcast is a weekly conversation with Ryan Williams, Spencer Klavan, and Mike Sabo devoted to uncovering the ideas and principles that drive American political life. Stream here or download from your favorite podcast host.
Political skills are the skills to build trust, influence, and persuade others to support a decision within a political context. These abilities underpin effective political leadership, advocacy, and decision-making, yet they are often invisible and difficult to define. This is especially true for people from minority backgrounds who may not be as familiar with Australian cultural and political norms.
As the Executive Director of Per Capita, one of Australia’s leading progressive think tanks, Dr Chau brings both academic depth and lived experience to this topic. Her personal journey has required her to learn and refine these skills intentionally — from grassroots advocacy and community organising, to serving on ministerial advisory councils, and now shaping national debates on equity and inclusion. Along the way, she has navigated the challenges of cultural identity and leadership in spaces where diverse voices are often underrepresented.
At the October 2025 John Cain Lunch Dr Chau explored how political skills are developed and applied, particularly in environments where power and representation are contested.
On this episode of Dollars & Sense, Greg and Elinor discuss the latest World Economic Outlook from the International Monetary Fund, the latest trade spat between the United States and China, why fewer Australians are travelling to America, and the Australian Government’s backdown over superannuation.
Dead Centre: How political pragmatism is killing us by Richard Denniss is available now via the Australia Institute website.
This discussion was recorded on Wednesday 15 October 2025.
Host: Greg Jericho, Chief Economist, the Australia Institute // @grogsgamut
Host: Elinor Johnston-Leek, Senior Content Producer, the Australia Institute // @elinorjohnstonleek
For decades, clandestine foreign military and intelligence operations have been the deadly, destabilizing engine of American foreign policy. Today, as exposed by investigative journalist Seth Harp in his new book The Fort Bragg Cartel, 21st-century Special Forces operations have become their brutal, logical successor.
Environment Minister Murray Watt is known as Labor’s political “fixer” – Australians have given him the opportunity to fix something for us, and our planet.
The Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act (EPBC) was enacted in 2000 as the country’s first attempt at a holistic approach to balance the desire for growth with the need for environmental protection.
At the same time, the world was beginning global efforts to reduce emissions and stabilise the climate.
The Howard government failed to integrate action on climate with protecting and restoring nature. It was a failure repeated by successive governments.
The original EPBC Act did not include a mechanism for dealing with growing emissions and climate change. But Australia had at least signalled its intention to be part of global efforts to stabilise the climate, with then-environment minister Robert Hill signing the Kyoto Protocol in 1997.
Hill always stuck to his guns on the environment. At a fossil fuel-sponsored conference in Canberra, Hill took the floor and, staring down the captains of industry, said: “I have stated many times, and will do so again, that Australia accepts the balance of the scientific evidence which suggests that human activity is accelerating the increase in the Earth’s average temperature.”
It was a backbone not found on this issue with the then-prime minister, John Howard. No doubt under pressure from fossil fuel interests, the PM refused to ratify the Kyoto Protocol, which his environment minister had signed the country on to.
In his recent Provocation, Claremont Institute Washington Fellow Scott Yenor savagely criticizes Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s 1996 opinion in US v Virginia, writing that her opinion “banned single-sex education at Virginia Military Institute (VMI).” Yenor asserts that Ginsburg portrayed “single-sex institutions [as] artifacts of prejudice” and calls for a reversal of US v Virginia and the establishment of all-male military schools in the model of VMI pre-1996. The problem is that Yenor misrepresents what Justice Ginsburg actually said. Additionally, he does not even mention Chief Justice Rehnquist’s concurrence, which needed to be addressed for his argument to carry any weight.
Justice Ginsburg’s opinion begins by acknowledging that “Single-sex education affords pedagogical benefits to at least some students, Virginia emphasizes, and that reality is uncontested in this litigation.” Instead of admitting women to VMI, the Commonwealth offered women admission to the Virginia Women’s Institute for Leadership (VWIL), a women’s program based at Mary Baldwin College.
When coal prices hit a record $280 per tonne in 2023, Adani sold Queensland coal to Indian buyers for $100 per tonne, drastically reducing royalty payments to Queenslanders.
The current LNP government abandoned court action to recoup the payments in August this year, a case started by the former Labor government.
“Adani was almost giving coal away at mates rates right at the time when Queenslanders were struggling most with record energy prices in 2023,” said Rod Campbell, Research Director at The Australia Institute.
“Just as the Federal government gives away Australia’s gas resources for free, the Queensland government is now effectively giving away $400 million worth of free coal.
“That $400 million could have tripled the state’s $100 Back to School Boost payment for primary school students or paid for a year’s worth of free school lunches.
“Budgets are about choices, and the Queensland government has to choose between letting foreign-owned fossil fuel companies dodge their payments or whether to spend more on services for ordinary Queenslanders who are struggling.
“After winning the federal election, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese spoke of ‘doing things the Australian way’ and of ‘progressive patriotism’.
“This new research shows that the Queensland government could use a dose of progressive patriotism as well.
“Despite being one of the world’s largest exporters of gas and coal, Australians are paying high prices for energy.
Yesterday, Jamelle Bouie, a popular progressive columnist for the New York Times mused on Bluesky that “a commitment to public health obligates you to get vaccinated and, when you are sick, do what you can to avoid spreading that to other people. The demand that one mask at all times in public spaces is, I think, unreasonable.”
The Gauntlet is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
Before I begin this column, I’ll note that I quite like Mr. Bouie’s writing. It’s why I follow him. This piece isn’t intended as a nasty takedown or anything of the sort; it’s intended to respond to a broader cultural sentiment raised here: masking is unreasonable, and what I find interesting about this particular framing.
So the federal government is shut down. I’ve been late to covering this story because of my focus on events at the Federal Reserve. Well, that was true when I first wrote that sentence. I then became ill for a full week which has delayed me even more. Fortunately for me, and unfortunate for everyone else, the government shutdown is still underway, so what I have to say is still relevant. There has been so much news packed into this year, it's been impossible to keep up.
On this episode of Follow the Money, Leanne Minshull and Ebony Bennett discuss the Federal Government’s efforts to push through changes to Australia’s busted environment laws with the support of the Coalition.
Dead Centre: How political pragmatism is killing us by Richard Denniss is available now via Australia Institute Press.
Guest: Leanne Minshull, co-CEO, the Australia Institute // @leanneminshull
Host: Ebony Bennett, Deputy Director, the Australia Institute // @ebonybennett
Across the world, cities are where the future happens first. From tackling climate change to shaping inclusive economies, local governments are on the frontlines of humanity’s greatest challenges. Yet, while expectations for cities grow, the tools, data, and support they need to deliver often lag behind.
That’s why the scaling of the Public Sector Capabilities Index marks an important milestone. Over the past two years, in partnership with Bloomberg Philanthropies, the Index has been co-developed with more than 200 government officials across 45 cities and over 100 urban experts.
A first-of-its-kind tool, the Index is designed to help city governments, and those that support their efforts, to assess, strengthen, and celebrate cities’ ability to solve problems, deliver for their residents, and contribute to addressing global challenges.
From “Black Jack” Pershing’s pursuit of Pancho Villa deep into Chihuahua to fentanyl streaming into the United States, Washington forgets that the southern border has always been a battlefield.
In August, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum declared, “We will never allow the US army or any other institution of the US to set foot in Mexican territory.” Her words came after reports that President Trump had signed a directive authorizing the Department of War to conduct military operations against Latin American cartels designated as Foreign Terrorist Organizations, Sinaloa foremost among them.
In Washington the rubric was “hemispheric defense.” In Mexico City it was heard as the prelude to invasion. Both capitals spoke as if the prospect was novel. But it is not.
American forces have crossed the Rio Grande in uniform far more often than most Americans realize. The Mexican-American War of 1846 amputated half of Mexico’s territory. Then, there were the Las Cuevas War of 1875 and the “Bandit Wars,” a series of raids by Mexican outlaws into Texas from 1915–1919. Even the obscure Garza Revolution of the 1890s followed the same logic. When cross-border violence spilled north, the United States answered not with demarches but with dragoons. Mexico remembers. But Americans forget and then declare the next repetition “unprecedented.”
For those of us who hold out hope that the pontificate of Pope Leo XIV, the Chicago-born bishop and missionary to Peru, Robert Prevost, will lead to more Christ-centered and less ideological leadership from Rome, the last few weeks have been disappointing.
First, a 2023 video of the new pope resurfaced, where he spoke about the need to welcome people of diverse “lifestyles” to the Church (this follows the lead of his immediate predecessor Pope Francis), although he assured us that there had been no change of doctrine, at least “not yet.” Can one imagine Christ telling the adulterous woman whom he saved from stoning in the Gospel of John (John 7:53-8:11) not “to sin no more” but to continue in her “lifestyle” while being welcomed to his Kingdom? Or St. Paul’s exhortation to the Corinthians, where he declines to chide these new Christians for their gross resort to sin and moral corruption, but encourages them to remain steadfast in their less-than-admirable “lifestyles”?
Pope Leo was also near silent about the killing of the Catholic schoolchildren by a trans fanatic in Minneapolis, initially treating it as an unfortunate example of gun violence. As Rod Dreher has pointed out, on the day Charlie Kirk was assassinated, the pope tweeted about migrants on the island of Lampedusa. While anti-Christian violence spiked, Rome seemed to fiddle.
Today, we commemorate Christopher Columbus, the man whose daring voyage across the Atlantic in 1492 initiated the Age of Discovery that reshaped the world. Columbus’s prediction that a western route to Asia was possible was not correct in its specifics, but he did not have to be correct to change the world. His legacy is about the spirit that drove him: a spirit of exploration, courage, and leadership.
Columbus’s journey across the Atlantic was no small feat. In an era when ships were fragile and navigation rudimentary, Columbus and his crew faced uncharted waters and unpredictable storms. The dangers were not merely physical; the psychological toll of sailing in the open sea, with no guarantee of land appearing on the horizon, tested the limits of human endurance. Columbus’s men urged him to turn back, but he pressed on, navigating not only the seas but also the fragile morale of his crew.
What does it mean to celebrate such a man? As Ralph Waldo Emerson wrote, we raise monuments to men as well as the spirit that moved them:
Spirit, that made those heroes dare To die, and leave their children free, Bid Time and Nature gently spare The shaft we raise to them and thee.
This spirit continues to inspire. We honor Columbus not just for what he achieved, but for the qualities that made his achievements possible.
As soon as Trump took his seat in the Oval Office that (distant) January of 2025, he signed his first 26 executive orders, one of which initiated the process of classifying eleven Latin American cartels—many of them Mexican—as terrorist organisations. Since then, collective psychosis has erupted, fuelled by speculation about possible military interventions. Although the political, economic, and diplomatic costs make a military incursion into Mexico unlikely, Venezuela appears in the equation as a more feasible and less geopolitically risky target, and one more profitable in the political calculations of MAGA’s interlocutors. On the 3rd of September, the Pentagon bombed Venezuelan unarmed and small ships in international waters in the Caribbean, allegedly and speculatively, belonging to the Cartel of the Soles. How far a potential military advance aimed at destabilising Nicolás Maduro’s government in the name of combating the grotesque figure of narco-terrorism could escalate remains unknown and politically contingent, but this tension illustrates a deeper geopolitical and historical problem: sovereignty in post-colonial Latin America has always oscillated between fantasy and fragility.
Columbus Day ought to provoke reflection as much as celebration—and not just because the White House is emphatically committed to the latter. It was the right move, of course, for the administration to confidently reject acts of erasure like “Indigenous Peoples Day,” and the whole apparatus of academia, media, and elite-left cultural bludgeoning behind it. We should understand what exactly was meant to be erased.
Although Columbus Day in its historical roots is a de facto holiday for Italian Americans, that group was never really the target of those attacking Christopher Columbus or the holiday in his name. Rather, the opposition to Columbus and his day came due to enmity toward the values and roots of those Italian Americans—and every other American worth the name.
Columbus’s Journal of the First Voyage opens with “In nomine Domini nostri Jesu Christi (In the name of our Lord Jesus Christ),” revealing that his journey was an act of faith. He navigated the dangerous waters of the Atlantic to bring about the evangelization of the world foretold in sacred Scripture.
On this episode of After America, Elizabeth Pancotti, economic policy specialist and former advisor to Senator Bernie Sanders, joins Dr Emma Shortis to discuss the US government shutdown and how the Trump administration is using it to further consolidate power.
This discussion was recorded on Friday 10 October 2025.
Tickets for America Unravelling, featuring Emma Shortis and Don Watson, on Sunday 19 October at the Queenscliffe Literary Festival are available online.
Dead Centre: How political pragmatism is killing us by Richard Denniss is available now via Australia Institute Press.
Guest: Elizabeth Pancotti, Managing Director of Policy and Advocacy, Groundwork Collaborative // @ENPancotti
Host: Emma Shortis, Director, International & Security Affairs, the Australia Institute // @emmashortis
In this current financial year, an estimated $21 billion in superannuation tax concessions will flow to the richest 10% of Australians – more than is spent on either child care subsidies, government schools or the estimated $13.6 billion that it would cost the government to include dental in Medicare.
The proposed changes would only affect around 0.5% of people with superannuation and would have been a very small but vital attempt to redress the gross imbalance in the system.
Australia Institute research shows the vast majority of people under 30 will never have more than $3 million in superannuation.
“The government’s watering down of the changes, by indexing the $3 million with inflation, and ruling out taxing unrealised capital gains will be of great comfort to those who abuse the superannuation system in order to avoid paying tax,” said Greg Jericho, Chief Economist at The Australia Institute.
“The tax system needs reform to make it fairer and to remove distortions such as the capital gains tax discount which has greatly contributed to the housing affordability crisis.
“These changes do little to rein in massive inequality of the superannuation tax system.
“The government’s decision today will embolden those who prefer a tax system that favours the rich.”
9 October 2025: This Sunday (12/10) another Nationwide March for Palestine will flood the streets of more than 27 cities and towns across Australia, marking two years of the genocide in Gaza.
9 October 2025: Free Palestine Melbourne has written to Jason Marriner, the CEO of Marriner Group and the owner of The Forum Theatre, requesting that he cancel the performance of nationalist Israeli psytrance musicians Infected Mushroom at The Forum on 3 November 2025.
This is a more personal entry at Heidi Says than some others. I wanted to share with you what I am doing, day to day, in the hope that I might inspire some of you to try to incorporate the fight against Republican Fascism into your own daily lives.
Speaking against the Trump regime's use of federalized National Guard troops in U.S. cities
Once again, this past Saturday, October 11, 2025, I had the chance to participate in Indivisible Santa Fe's Speakers' Corner. It was a rainy, somewhat chilly day but we had more Indivisible Santa Fe members turn out than the previous, sunny session the Saturday before.
I spent some of my time urging my fellow Santa Feans to use our liberty and our current relative safety to speak out against what the Trump regime is doing in Chicago, Portland, and throughout California, where he and his minions, Kristi Noem, Pete Hegseth, and Pam Bondi have installed terroristic federal agents and threatened to put federalized National Guard troops on the streets.
What’s On around Naarm/Melbourne & Regional Victoria: Oct 13-19, 2025 With thanks to the dedicated activists at Friends of the Earth Melbourne! . . See also these Palestine events listings from around the country: 9839
