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During this election campaign, both major parties have tried to make it very clear that concerned about our spending on defence.

Over the past term, the Labor Government increased funding by $50 billion, increasing total spending to 2% of GDP. It is forecast to continue to grow to 2.3% of GDP by the mid-2030s. The Coalition thinks that is not enough, and has promised to increase it to 2.5% of GDP in 5 years and 3% in 10 years.

With all this concern about defence spending, you would think Australia was either at risk of imminent invasion or was spending far less than our peers. But the evidence shows that neither of these is true.

Australia has an outsized spending on defence. In dollar terms, Australia is the 12th biggest spender on defence. We spend more dollars on defence than Canada, Israel, Spain, or the Netherlands.

If we look at the top 20 biggest spenders on defence as a percentage of GDP, Australia still ranks 12th. This puts us ahead of China, Italy, Germany, and Japan.

Were Australia to increase its defence spending to 2.3% of GDP, we would be the ninth biggest spender on defence and the military. Australia would be devoting more of its economy to defence than France and Taiwan, and on a par with the United Kingdom. If Australia went to 3% of GDP, as the Coalition has promised, we would pass India, South Korea, and be closing in on the United States.

Do we really believe as a nation that our security needs are more urgent than South Korea, a country that is still at war with North Korea?

Australia is a rich country that can afford anything that is a priority. Dispelling myths about our economy helps Australians make choices about what kind of country we want to be.

On this episode, Dr Richard Denniss joins Paul Barclay to discuss the importance of truth in democracy, the myths that mining is Australia’s economic ‘backbone’ and that Australia can’t ‘afford’ nice things, and how making you feel powerless is part of the strategy of the powerful.

This discussion was recorded on Thursday 30 January 2025 and things may have changed since the recording.

Order What’s the Big Idea? 32 Big Ideas for a Better Australia now, via the Australia Institute website.

Guest: Dr Richard Denniss, Executive Director, the Australia Institute // @richarddenniss

Host: Paul Barclay, Walkley Award winning journalist and broadcaster // @PaulBarclay

Show notes: 

Australia’s small mining industry, the Australia Institute (December 2024)

The careful deliberation would pay off: despite the slow start, the Gillard minority government would go on to pass legislation at a higher daily rate than any other Australian government.

17 days is far from the longest wait: after the 1922 election, it took 53 days of negotiations for the Nationalist and Country parties to agree to form coalition government.

The deal proved enduring; the coalition between these parties, or their respective iterations, has survived for over 100 years with only brief interruptions.

In fact, a wait of a couple of weeks or more is typical even in modern times.

The Australia Institute has compiled details of the 25 power sharing parliaments elected since 1989 at the federal, state and territory levels.

Most negotiations took 15 days or more. Last year, the Tasmanian Liberal Government took 32 days to strike an agreement with independents.

Australia’s post-election negotiations are short compared to many other countries. While Gillard and Abbott were negotiating back in 2010, Belgium was on its third month of a record 541 days of government negotiations. This is unusually long, but months-long government formations are the norm in many developed countries.

The last Spanish government negotiations took almost four months.

What is this thing called “merit”? And what role did it play during the recent but hopefully bygone age of elite college dominance, runaway financialization, and the rise of competitive blame-shifting? This is the puzzle proffered by Nicholas Lemann in his 1999 book The Big Test: The Secret History of the American Meritocracy: Why should competition for slots at a tiny number of selective colleges play a substantial role in how young people come to fill lucrative private sector jobs?

The American meritocracy was created in the mid-20th century by academic administrators such as war gas chemist and sometime Harvard President James Conant not to staff Wall Street but to find the best and the brightest to fill vital government and scientific positions.

We can think about how merit selection can and should work for these few and demanding positions by riffing on the 1943 Warner Brothers propaganda short The Rear Gunner. The small and folksy Burgess Meredith was the star, while the tall, slim, and handsome Ronald Reagan was in a supporting role.

On Sunday in Hobart over 6,000 people protested against the harmful practices of foreign owned salmon industry in Tasmania. The Australia Institute’s Tasmanian director, Eloise Carr, spoke to rally participants about recent changes to national nature laws and how the Institute has raised this issue with the UN.

Seventeen civil society organisations have written to UNESCO and the IUCN asking for World Heritage Centre officials to visit Tasmania to assess the damage the salmon industry is doing to Tasmania’s Wilderness World Heritage Area.  This would be a huge international embarrassment, but it needs to happen. Macquarie Harbour and the endangered Maugean Skate are running out of time and options.

The Australian government has weakened the nation’s environmental laws for its own cheap, domestic political purposes. It was rushed, mismanaged, completely devoid of scrutiny, and rammed through parliament in the dead of night, with the support of the opposition, while Members of Parliament were focused on the federal budget.

The world is watching in horror as the Australian government puts World Heritage wilderness and a globally renowned native species – also recognised for its World Heritage value – at risk of extinction. It is shameful, and the world must hold the Australian government to account.

With the federal election just days away, Everybody’s Home is calling on the next government to make a huge investment in public and community housing, as a new report underscores the stark reality of the housing crisis.

Anglicare’s Rental Affordability Snapshot for 2025 released today shows across Australia there were:

• No rentals (0%) affordable for a person on Youth Allowance
• Three rentals (0%) affordable for a person on Jobseeker
• 28 rentals (0.1%) affordable for a person on the Disability Support Pension
• 165 rentals (0.3%) affordable for a person on the Age Pension.
  

Everybody’s Home spokesperson Maiy Azize said the housing crisis won’t end without a huge investment in social housing. 

“The housing crisis is one of the most pressing issues facing Australians today and will be front of mind for many as they cast their votes this week,” Ms Azize said.

“People want an end to soaring rents, poor rental standards, and insecure housing. They want relief from housing stress and the constant threat of homelessness.

In March 2020, the world shut down, and many workers were afforded a privilege they’d never had before. Like the CEOs who’ve since ginned up panic over “productivity” concerns, they began working from home. And wouldn’t you know it? An analysis by the Bureau of Labor Statistics found that “remote work substantially contributed to productivity growth during the pandemic.”

For those of us who value workers’ rights, the news is similarly positive. Gallup’s 2025 State of the Global Workplace report found that “remote workers have the highest levels of engagement and life satisfaction.”

Forbes reported in 2022 that a survey of over 12,000 workers found that those who worked from home were “20% happier on average than those who didn’t have the ability to work from home.”

Getting a university education in Australia has gone from being a modest expense to something that is now much more costly than was envisioned when HECS was introduced in 1989. Fees for degrees such as Law and Society and Culture are over 700% higher than they were in 1990 – far more expensive than if fees had risen with inflation.

While you might expect to get a better education for more money, that isn’t the case.  Across the sector, staff-student ratios – a key measure of quality – have gone from under 1:13 in 1990 to over 1:22 today – a 42% decrease in the number of academic staff per student.

The changes that started the upwards trajectory of university fees were justified in part by the idea that teaching costs were increasing. Since then, the actual number of staff that universities employ to teach students has shrunk.

Under the original 1989 HECS system, student contributions were modest: only $1,800 per year, no matter what the student was studying. These contributions increased annually in line with rising costs for the university. The system was partially deregulated in 1996 by the Howard Government and different courses were priced differently, a decision justified on the basis of:

The research, supported by the Human Rights Law Centre and Whistleblower Justice Fund, shows support is consistently high across all voting intentions, including Labor, Coalition, Greens, and One Nation.

Public support for protecting whistleblowers has surged by 12% in under two years.

The spike in support has been recorded just one year after the imprisonment of military whistleblower David McBride and amid the ongoing prosecution of tax office whistleblower Richard Boyle. The polling research also reveals that the majority of Australians believe these prosecutions should be dropped.

Despite strong, widespread and increasing public support for stronger whistleblower protections from voters, both major parties have failed to make commitments for reform ahead of the May 3 Federal Election.

In February 2025, the Whistleblower Protection Authority Bill was introduced to Parliament by Senator David Pocock, Senator Jacqui Lambie, Dr Helen Haines MP, and Andrew Wilkie MP.

This anti-corruption legislation would provide protections to whistleblowers and aid government agencies in combating corruption. The polling research reveals that 84% of Australians support the establishment of a whistleblower protection authority.

“In Australia, whistleblowers exposing alleged war crimes or unfair treatment of small businesses face years of jail time,” said Bill Browne, Democracy & Accountability Director at The Australia Institute.

If the current election campaign feels long and sluggish, that may be because there have been few meaningful announcements.

The 2025 election campaign is scheduled to run for 37 days. This makes it roughly average for campaigns over the past thirty years.

However, public holidays and long weekends can shape campaign behaviour and impact voter engagement. The 2019, 2022 and 2025 elections all coincided with the Easter long weekend as well as ANZAC Day. (No federal elections from 1996 to 2016 coincided with a nationwide long weekend or public holiday.)

Public holiday dates over the Easter long weekend vary from one state to another, but as political scientists have shown, the four-day interruption to the campaign sees lower public interest, reduced media coverage and the voluntary suspension of some campaign activity.

With public holidays and long weekends excluded, 2025 is the shortest campaign of the past thirty years at just 32 days of proper campaigning. That includes polling day. It also includes the 22 April 2025, a day on which the major parties suspended their campaigns as a sign of respect for the late Pope Francis.

It is yet to hold a public hearing. Its decision regarding the Robodebt referrals was subject to adverse findings. And its findings so far have been limited.

Reform is needed if the NACC is to win the confidence of the Australian people.

It comes as new polling research from The Australia Institute, undertaken in collaboration with the Human Rights Law Centre and Whistleblower Justice Fund, finds Australians overwhelmingly support a Whistleblower Protection Authority.

During my time at Southern Methodist University, I had the privilege of studying under Herbert Simon, the polymath whose work on decision theory shaped Cold War strategic thinking. Simon critiqued idealized rational actor models and emphasized prudence over ideology. That education remains urgently relevant today as voices in Washington and Jerusalem renew calls to strike Iran’s nuclear infrastructure.

From a realist perspective—one grounded in Cold War logic and decision-theoretic caution—a military strike would be not just unnecessary but destabilizing. A restrained acceptance of a limited Iranian nuclear capability could, paradoxically, enhance long-term regional stability and better serve the security interests of both the United States and Israel.

Realism begins with the sober recognition that the international system is anarchic, and states act to ensure their survival. Power matters, but so does restraint. As John Mearsheimer argues, states pursue advantage not from moral aspiration but from cold cost-benefit analysis. Unlike liberal internationalists or neoconservatives who cloak intervention in moralism, realists ask: Will this war enhance stability? Can this adversary be deterred?

With the 2025 federal election fast approaching, there have been many discussions around campaign promises and how either party plans to invest in Australia’s future.  

Much of the focus has been on housing and the cost of living. And while these are undoubtably important talking points, this election presents an opportunity to highlight a sector in the Australian economy that is often overlooked.  

With an aging and expanding population, our Care Economy requires meaningful and consistent attention on a national level.  

Like with the Future Made in Australia initiatives, where greater investments in manufacturing, renewable energy, and education will future-proof the careers of thousands of Australians and the economy, so too would investments in aged-care and early childhood care and education.  

On this episode of After America, Dr Prudence Flowers joins Dr Emma Shortis to discuss the Trump administration’s attempts to ‘re-masculinise’ the American economy through tariffs, its efforts to undermine trans and reproductive rights, and how culture wars are playing out in Australian politics.

1800RESPECT is the national domestic, family and sexual violence counselling, information and support service. Call 1800 737 732, text 0458 737 732, chat online or video call via their website.

This discussion was recorded on Thursday 17 April 2025 and things may have changed since recording.

Order ‘After America: Australia and the new world order’ or become a foundation subscriber to Vantage Point at australiainstitute.org.au/store.

Guest: Prudence Flowers, Senior Lecturer in US History, Flinders University // @FlowersPGF

Host: Emma Shortis, Director, International & Security Affairs, the Australia Institute // @EmmaShortis

Show notes:

The environment doesn’t care who’s in government — but Australians should. If we want to avoid catastrophic climate and biodiversity collapse, the next parliament has a clear path forward.

Here are five urgent, evidence-based actions ready to go.

No new fossil fuel projects

Australia’s fossil fuel projects are already contributing to climate change. New projects will add to the impact.

Every new fossil fuel project locks in emissions for decades. Every year we delay deeper cuts, we shrink our chances of a liveable future.

Australian governments continue to approve coal and gas developments, and there are around 100 more ‘under development’ according to government sources.

Australia does not need to approve new gas and coal projects for energy. In fact, most of Australia’s gas and coal is exported to other countries. But no matter where in the world it is burned, it still contributes to the climate change Australians want to avoid.

Equality is a holistic goal. Inequality affects, and is affected by, so many overlapping areas of life that understanding it requires knowledge from every part of life. That’s why we’re launching a series of videocasts with guest experts, thinkers, and activists from across the equality movement to explore their perspective on inequality in greater detail. […]

The post Videocasts appeared first on Equality Trust.

However, it is likely that those voters’ stories are being told by journalists who cannot relate to the struggles of Australians living in the commuter belt.

New analysis by The Australia Institute reveals that more than half of Australia’s eight and a half thousand journalists live in electorates classified by the Australian Electoral Commission as “inner metropolitan”.

The report, Where Do Journalists Live?, concludes that Australia’s news media – which has already seen a sharp decline in local outlets – is not well placed to cover an election that is likely to be decided in key battleground seats where so few of its journalists reside.

Australia exported more thermal coal in the last quarter of 2024 than it ever has before.  (See chart below)

Just last week, Santos’ Barossa gas project was approved, despite it being the most emissions-intensive gas export project in Australia and possibly the world.

Meanwhile, the Minister is yet to make a decision on Woodside’s proposed North West Shelf gas expansion, which would have devastating consequences for the environment and the Murujuga Rock Art.

“This record expansion of fossil fuels has been facilitated by an ALP government that was elected to take action on climate change – not accelerate it,” said Rod Campbell, Research Director at The Australia Institute.

“Australia needs fewer coal and gas mines, not more.

“Today’s proposal from the Greens to prevent new fossil fuel projects demonstrates how the next Parliament could act immediately.

“No new laws are needed. The Minister has the power to stop new fossil fuel projects right now.”

Australia Institute research shows coal and gas emissions are still rising, wiping out progress from renewables. Any further approvals will lock in climate damage for decades.

This was the lowest for a winning candidate in 2022, closely followed by the winning candidate in Nicholls, National MP Sam Birrell, who won with 26% of the primary vote.

In Groom, independent Suzie Holt received 8% of the vote on first preferences, putting her in fourth. She finished in second place with 43% after leapfrogging One Nation and Labor on preferences.

The only candidate to win from third place in 2022 was the Greens’ Stephen Bates in Brisbane.

It is relatively recent that Independents and minor parties benefited most from Australia’s voting system.

Until the 1980s, it was the Coalition who mainly benefited from preferential voting. From 1949 to 1987 Coalition candidates won 106 races where they were behind on first preferences, with Labor taking only seven.

The lowest ever primary vote for a winning candidate in a federal election was received by the National (then Country) party’s Arthur Hewson in 1972, who won McMillan from third place with just 17%. Preferences from independent, Democratic Labour Party, and Liberal voters allowed him to beat Labor on the final count with 52%.

Harvard University historian James Hankins celebrates the 94% reduction in illegal border crossings that the Trump Administration achieved in just its first six weeks as an “unprecedented accomplishment.” He cites polling evidence indicating that, while a wide majority of Americans supports deporting illegal immigrants who have been convicted of felonies, a wide majority is against deporting most undocumented but otherwise law-abiding illegal aliens. Mass deportations, he argues, are neither “good for the country” nor “politically smart.” He warns GOP leaders that stories about “immigrants suffering in detention camps, tearful family separations…and so forth…could turn into a major wedge issue for Democrats in the 2026 election cycle.” This argument for measured, not mass, deportations needs to be amended and refined—but it should not be rejected.

This article was originally published, in slightly different form, by Strong Towns Chairman Andrew Burleson on his Substack The Post-Suburban Future. It is shared here with permission. Images were provided by the writer.

Over the past month I needed a break to deal with organizational issues, including getting the Notes on the Crises Manhattan office(!) set up and needed time to continue a number of investigations. Two weeks ago I got pulled into covering the Trump Tariff Financial Crisis at enormous length, culminating in the second interview with Paul Krugman which was released over the weekend. However, the Trump-Musk Payments Crisis has not gone away and I have quite a lot to catch up on.

What City Observatory Did This Week

Portland celebrates Earth Day by dropping billions on wider freeways!

Despite legal commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, Oregon’s transportation emissions have increased 5% since 2013, directly contradicting Portland’s Climate Action Plan.

The irony is stark: On Earth Day, Oregon is advancing three major freeway expansion projects totaling nearly $12 billion – a complete reversal of Portland’s environmental legacy. Five decades ago, the city gained national recognition for removing a downtown freeway and replacing it with riverfront parks.

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When words give out, so does judicial power

 — Author: Heidi Li Feldman — Friday 25th April 2025

For about a week, I've been writing long threads on Mastodon, detailing and explaining significant developments in the various court cases involving Venezuelans the Trump regime has classified as alien enemies and is attempting to remove from the country, presumably to a hellish prison in El Salvador. Most courts involved have taken at least some steps to stop any such removals while the substantive issues are litigated. Even the Roberts Supreme Court issued an emergency order telling the executive branch not to remove Venezuelans held in the Northern District of Texas, because the district court there and the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals refused to act. This emergency order came on the heels of another opinion from the Roberts Court, the one where the justices held that Venezuelans detained per Trump's Alien Enemies Act (AEA) proclamation had to seek relief by filing habeas corpus petitions in the federal district court in the location where they are confined. The justices also held:

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MediaReport20250424

 — Organisation: Free Palestine Melbourne — Friday 25th April 2025

Just not kosher. The diabolical dilemma facing Jewish voters in Macnamara (The Age, 24/4/2025) ( https://www.theage.com.au/national/just-not-kosher-the-diabolical-dilemma-facing-jewish-voters-in-macnamara-20250423-p5ltm6.html ) Jewish Australia’s relationship with the Albanese government is, to put it mildly, complicated. Nowhere is this more acutely felt than in Australia’s most Jewish electorate, Macnamara, currently held by Jewish Labor MP Josh Burns. With early voting now […]

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2025 Federal election scorecard

 — Organisation: Prosper Australia — Friday 25th April 2025

Let tax reform drive your voting decision this election with the Prosper Australia 2025 policy scorecard.

The post 2025 Federal election scorecard first appeared on Prosper Australia.

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Gauging the Strength of China’s Economy in Uncertain Times

 — Organisation: Federal Reserve Bank of New York — Publication: Liberty Street Economics — Thursday 24th April 2025

Jeffrey B. Dawson and Hunter L. Clark

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Divided State

 — Organisation: The Claremont Institute — Thursday 24th April 2025

Matt McCaw never wanted to leave Oregon. The problem, he explains, is that Oregon left him. “The state went off the rails during the COVID pandemic,” the 46-year-old textbook salesman tells me. “The authorities immediately closed down our schools and churches. Instead of an education, my six kids were given exactly four hours of online classwork a week. People hassled you if you dared to set foot outside your front door without wearing a mask. And of course you couldn’t even escape by going out for a movie or a meal, because everything was boarded up, and the restaurants were takeout-only.”

It’s one thing for a civil authority to take such drastic measures within the strict confines of a genuine public emergency. But as Britain’s Harold Macmillan once sagely reminded us, speaking of the strange reluctance of the state to relinquish supplementary power once given a taste of it: “You can always throw a dog a bone, but you can’t always take it back again.”

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Silence on big ute subsidies as Coalition backflips on EV’s

 — Organisation: The Australia Institute — Thursday 24th April 2025

Australia Institute research shows that subsidies for luxury imported utes costs the Federal Budget $250 million per year.

Almost every large, dual-cab ute on the market is exempt from the luxury car tax because utes are “designed mainly for carrying goods and not passengers”.

But everyone knows most of these vehicles rarely leave the bitumen of our suburbs and rarely carry anything more than the weekly shopping or children for the school drop-off.

“Big dumb utes make our roads more dangerous, cause more pollution and reduce the government’s ability to fund social services,” said Richard Denniss, Executive Director of The Australia Institute.

“Basic economics says to tax things you want less of and subsidise things you want more of, yet Peter Dutton seems to want less electric vehicles and more American-style utes on our roads.

“The Coalition says it’s scrapping the EV tax break – which it supported up until Monday – because people who buy electric vehicles can afford them. Surely the same should apply for big utes.”

The post Silence on big ute subsidies as Coalition backflips on EV’s appeared first on The Australia Institute.

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Defence: too much is never enough

 — Organisation: The Australia Institute — Thursday 24th April 2025

On this episode of Dollars & Sense, Greg and Elinor discuss the Coalition’s defence spending announcement, why Australia needs bravery from policymakers, and the latest debate between Jim Chalmers and Angus Taylor.

This discussion was recorded on Thursday 24 April 2025 and things may have changed since recording.

Follow all the action from the federal election on our new politics live blog, Australia Institute Live with Amy Remeikis.

Order ‘After America: Australia and the new world order’ or become a foundation subscriber to Vantage Point at australiainstitute.org.au/store.

Host: Greg Jericho, Chief Economist, the Australia Institute and Centre for Future Work // @grogsgamut

Host: Elinor Johnston-Leek, Senior Content Producer, the Australia Institute // @elinorjohnstonleek

Show notes:

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Elizabeth Turman-Bryant: The Bottom-Up Path to Local Leadership

 — Organisation: Strong Towns — Thursday 24th April 2025

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American Culture Fuels the Gynocracy

 — Organisation: The Claremont Institute — Thursday 24th April 2025

Why are young college-educated women trending left-wing?

Many like Charlie Kirk blame universities for indoctrinating young women. But the problem is deeper. Parents and young women have swallowed a feminist vision of the heroic feminine that elevates the university while leaving tradition and family behind.

“What defines” the New Woman, Barbara Dafoe Whitehead wrote in her 2003 book Why There Are No Good Men Left, “is not her relationship to marriage, but the remarkable path she follows from cradle to career.” She is single for longer than she used to be. She may not want children. She is independent, confident, increasingly irreligious, and must stand on her own. Advanced education and professional achievement are keys to the new view of womanhood.

Marriage, motherhood, and religion used to be the most important markers for women. Parents beamed when daughters married. Fathers hoped daughters would earn an M.R.S. degree. Wedding pictures were mounted above fireplaces. No more.

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Paint, Planters, and People Power: Indianapolis' Grassroots Makeover

 — Organisation: Strong Towns — Thursday 24th April 2025

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The talk about domestic and family violence prevention is big, the funding less so

 — Organisation: The Australia Institute — Thursday 24th April 2025

Election campaigns are when political parties tell us their priorities – they will structure their campaigns around certain themes, all designed to show voters that they are listening and they care.

But these priorities are often limited by notional and often arbitrary lines about what can be afforded to be done. Before the Budget this year, for example, the Finance Minister Katy Gallagher said: “as Finance Minister, I probably get a hundred good ideas for one that we can do.”

Because election commitments are accompanied by costings, voters can get a real sense of what political parties truly think are their priorities – and how much they are willing to spend when something is for them a priority.

Across the community, there is serious concern about the prevention of domestic and family violence. Until today, it hasn’t really featured in the campaign. So far in the campaign, Labor have promised $8.6 million in additional spending to tackle domestic and family violence. While today the Liberal Party has just announced a $90 million policy.

How much is that money? Surely it is sizeable given for example Peter Dutton said this morning that “most every measure in this space is supported on bipartisan basis because everyone accepts the fact that the scourge of violence and domestic violence, financial coercion and every aspect in this debate is completely and widly unacceptable in our society and we should do everything together to try to defeat it and work toward a better outcome for individuals and for our country as well.”

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The American Mind Podcast: The Roundtable Episode #264

 — Organisation: The Claremont Institute — Thursday 24th April 2025

The American Mind’s ‘Editorial Roundtable’ podcast is a weekly conversation with Ryan Williams, Spencer Klavan, and Mike Sabo devoted to uncovering the ideas and principles that drive American political life. Stream here or download from your favorite podcast host.

Of Comms and Conclaves | The Roundtable Ep. 264

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